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爱立信移动网络报告(2023年11月刊).pdf
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2 Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2023
Letter from the publisher
5G standalone brings new opportunities
Contents
Executive Editor: Peter Jonsson
Project Sponsor: Patrik Cerwall
Project Manager: Anette Lundvall
Forecasts: David von Koch
Writer Editor: Steven Davis
Co-writers:
Ruchika Batra, Greger Blennerud,
Fredrik Burstedt, Anders Carlsson P,
Sebastian Elmgren, Josip Jelic,
Doroteja Kobescak, Ivan Komljenovic,
Fredric Kronestedt, Christian Kuhlins,
Per Lindberg, Jun Ying Liu,
Nina Lövehagen, Geoffrey Macharia,
Jens Malmodin, Seda Onay,
Ravi Shekhar Pandey, Tomislav Tolic,
Jeff Travers, Björn Trollsås
Contributors from Jio:
Jawad Manssour, Rajeev Saluja,
Radhey Shyam Sarda
Forecasts Articles
04 5G mobile subscriptions to
exceed 5.3 billion in 2029
05 5G adoption continues,
despite weak smartphone market
06 5G subscriptions rising in every region
08 Sub-Saharan Africa: A closer look
10 Mobile network data traffic still climbing
11 Growth in percent falls, while
data traffic rises
12 5G set to account for 25 percent
of mobile data traffic this year
14 Uplink traffic dominated
by communication and
cloud-storage services
16 Leveraging 5G capacity in mobile
service packages
18 Cellular IoT connections expected
to reach 3 billion in 2023
19 RedCap 5G NR expands
Broadband IoT possibilities
20 5G FWA service provider adoption
reaches 50 percent
22 5G mid-band population
coverage reaches 30 percent
at the end of 2023
23 ICT sector’s footprint stable despite
more subscribers and data usage
25 Large-scale 5G SA deployment to
drive digital transformation in India
29 Demand for indoor connectivity driving
the need for enhanced performance
33 5G-enabled agility in gigafactories
and green steel plants
36 Methodology
37 Glossary
38 Global and regional key figures
Continued strong uptake of 5G, with
around 600 million new subscriptions
added globally during 2023, shows
that demand for high-performance
connectivity remains resilient in the face
of ongoing economic challenges and
geopolitical unrest in some markets.
The majority of networks deployed
so far are 5G non-standalone, but an
increasing number of communications
service providers are deploying 5G
standalone (SA). It offers greater
possibilities to support new and more
demanding use cases for both consumers
and enterprises. Only with standalone
architecture can 5G use cases requiring
time-bound latency, higher speeds,
capacity or benefits from network slicing
be achieved. To date, more than 40 service
providers have deployed or launched 5G
SA in public networks.
5G deployment is far from complete.
Further densification of 5G mid-band sites
is needed for the full 5G experience.
By the end of 2023, it’s estimated that
5G mid-band will be deployed in around
30 percent of existing 4G sites globally.
In this edition of the Ericsson Mobility
Report, we take a closer look at a
large-scale deployment of mid-band
5G SA in India, where the service provider
aims to capture the new business
opportunities 5G offers for both consumers
and enterprises.
The ongoing surge in data traffic
remains a strong driver of demand for
mobile networks. Most traffic is generated
indoors, where people typically spend
the majority of their time. There is,
however, a growing need to extend 5G
mid-band coverage indoors to ensure a
comprehensive 5G experience.
This edition explores how demand for
indoor connectivity drives the need for
enhanced network performance.
In the manufacturing industry, wireless
connectivity is becoming a key determinant
of production-line output, as factory
processes cannot withstand intermittent
network delays or areas with no coverage.
We explore this topic by examining how
5G enables the agility required to support
rapid changes and the reallocation of
factory resources in modern gigafactories
and green steel plants.
I trust that you will find this report
engaging and that it offers valuable
insights as we navigate the evolving
landscape of 5G.
Fredrik Jejdling
Executive Vice President and
Head of Business Area Networks
Introduction
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88606468/bg3.jpg)
3 Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2023Forecasts
3 Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2023Forecasts
The focus on 5G mid-band is intensifying, with deployments in several regions
contributing to global population coverage reaching 40 percent by the end of 2023.
5G subscriptions are rising in every region, including Sub-Saharan Africa, which is the
focus of this edition’s closer look forecast. Despite this global 5G growth, our forecast
exploring sustainability in ICT shows that carbon footprint per subscription has not risen.
Forecasts
Global 5G mobile subscriptions
are projected to reach
1.6 billion by the end of 2023.
1.6bn
5G mid-band coverage outside
mainland China has increased
from 10 percent in 2022 to around
30 percent at the end of 2023.
30%
Half of all service providers
offering Fixed Wireless
Access (FWA) now offer
the service over 5G.
50%
Average global mobile data
consumption per smartphone
is expected to reach 56 GB
per month at the end of 2029.
56GB
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88606468/bg4.jpg)
4 Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2023Forecasts
5G mobile subscriptions
to exceed 5.3 billion in 2029
Service providers continue to deploy
5G despite a weaker global economy
and geopolitical uncertainties. Around the
world, about 280 service providers have
now launched commercial 5G services,
and more than 40 have deployed or
launched 5G standalone (SA).
1
The
most common 5G services launched
by service providers for consumers are
enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB),
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), gaming
and some AR/VR-based services.
North America leading
5G subscription growth
The uptake of 5G subscriptions
2
in
North America continues to be strong,
and at the end of 2023 the region is
expected to have the highest 5G
North America and GCC will have
the highest 5G penetration in 2029 at
92 percent, followed by Western Europe
at 85 percent.
Subscriptions for 4G increased by
6 million during Q3 2023, totaling
5.2 billion. 4G subscriptions are at their
peak, and are now projected to decline to
around 3.2 billion by the end of 2029, as
subscribers migrate to 5G.
During the third quarter,
3G subscriptions declined by 61 million,
while GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions
dropped by 55 million and other
technologies
3
decreased by about 2 million.
China had the greatest net additions
of subscriptions during the quarter with
13 million added, followed by India
with 12 million added, and then the
US with 3 million added.
subscription penetration globally at
61 percent. In North East Asia,
penetration is anticipated to be 41 percent,
followed by the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) countries at 34 percent
and Western Europe at 25 percent.
5G subscription growth has also been
higher than expected in India, and 5G
penetration of 11 percent is expected by
the end of 2023. Global 5G subscriptions
are forecast to reach 1.6 billion by the
end of 2023, accounting for 18 percent
of all mobile subscriptions.
5G will become the dominant mobile
access technology by subscription in 2028.
Global 5G subscriptions are forecast to
exceed 5.3 billion in 2029, making up
58 percent of all mobile subscriptions
at that time. It is projected that
During the third quarter of 2023, 163 million 5G
subscriptions were added to make up a total of 1.4 billion.
1
1 GSA and Ericsson (November 2023).
2
A 5G subscription is counted as such when associated with a device that supports New Radio (NR),
as specied in 3GPP Release 15, and is connected to a 5G-enabled network.
3
Mainly CDMA2000 EVDO, TD-SCDMA and Mobile WiMAX.
Figure 1: Mobile subscriptions by technology (billion)
5G subscriptions are forecast to reach
1.6 billion by the end of 2023.
1.6bn
10
7
3
9
6
2
8
4
5
1
2020 2023 20262018 2021 2024 20272019 2022 2025 2028 2029
0
5G
LTE/TD-LTE
WCDMA/HSPA
GSM
TD-SCDMA
CDMA
9.2
billion
8.5
billion
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88606468/bg5.jpg)
5 Ericsson Mobility Report | November 2023Forecasts
5G adoption continues, despite
weak smartphone market
5G adoption continues
• Smartphone shipments show the first signs
of recovery following weak sales in the
beginning of 2023, as the decline narrowed
to only 1 percent in the third quarter.
1
• Over 1,000 5G smartphone models
have launched in total, with more
than 240 so far in 2023.
• 5G’s share of shipped smartphones
continues to grow and is expected to
account for 62 percent in 2023,
compared to 57 percent in 2022.
2
• Foldable device shipments grew by
16 percent year-on-year in the first half
of 2023. There are now 10 vendors
with foldable smartphone models,
and 17 different models launched so
far in 2023.
• 5G device market shares could be
redistributed in China, as signs of
competitive domestic chipset production
technology surfaced in the third quarter.
• The move towards XR continues with
market movers entering the domain.
• 3GPP-based non-terrestrial network
(NTN) technology is expected to
achieve the economy of scale needed
to drive global adoption of satellite
services in cellular devices. This is
expected to start with text messaging
and low-data-rate services, based on
fully integrated system-on-chip (SoC)
solutions expected in 2024.
5G SA strengthens its position
5G standalone (SA) is becoming well
established. This enables new capabilities
such as 5G native voice (Voice over
New Radio, or VoNR) and new services
like network slicing and user equipment
route selection policy (URSP).
• SA maturity is an enabler for private
networks, either using sub-6 or mmWave
spectrum. Since private spectrum is
usually limited to a single carrier, NSA
is not an option. Recent advances in
the device ecosystem have enabled
smartphones and tablets as
data-only devices.
• New Radio (NR) reduced capability
(RedCap) is ready for commercialization.
This will enable low-cost devices in
5G SA and open the private networks
space for sensors and other IoT devices
based on NR (see our RedCap overview
for more information, page 19).
• Devices with four-component carrier (4CC)
downlink carrier aggregation and uplink
carrier aggregation are entering the
market, which allows single-user
performance on par with or better than
non-standalone (NSA) in most markets.
• Smartphone operating systems have
introduced support for URSP, targeting
both enterprise and consumer use
cases. This is expected to boost 5G
monetization possibilities.
5G continues to increase its share of the overall smartphone market.
5G devices capable of supporting new network functionalities will
enable services beyond mobile broadband.
Note: The graph illustrates the availability of network functionality, as well as support in devices.
Figure 2: 5G technology market readiness
5G
4G/EPC
mmWave
RedCap
FWA
NSA
SA
Carrier
aggregation
Time-critical
communication
DL 2CC FDD,
TDD
DL 2-3CC FDD,
TDD
DL 4CC
FDD+TDD
UL 2CC F+T
256 QAM DL
3TX (1L FDD, 2LTDD)
DL L4S
UL L4S
NR NTN
SA (mmWave only) FWA
Emergency messaging Voice
UL configured grant
Low spectral efficiency MCS table
RedCap
NB-IoT NTN
UL 2CC FDD
DL 5CC
FDD+TDD
DL 6CC
FDD+TDD
UL 2CC TDD
2023 H2 2024 H1 2024 H2 2025Legacy
Proprietary
3GPP NTN
Proprietary NTN
1
Source: Canalys.
2
Source: IDC.
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