农林牧渔行业中期策略：猪价预期逐步兑现，养殖板块热度有望重燃-0628-东北证券-19页.pdf

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证券研究报告 / 行业深度报告

农林牧渔行业中期投资策略——

优于大势

15%

29%

43%

57%

2018/

6

2018/7

2018/8

2018/9

2019/4

2019/5

相关报告

1.1. 行情回顾...................................................................................................................3

1.2. 下半年展望：禽料好于猪料和水产料...................................................................4

2.1. 行情回顾...................................................................................................................5

2.2. 下半年猪价继续大涨，出栏量预期有待验证.......................................................6

2.2.1. 数据支撑猪价创新高 .................................................................................................. 6

2.2.2. 出栏量逐步验证，业绩预期将分化 ............................................................................. 7

3.1. 引种持续维持低位，行业景气度有望延续 2019 年全年.....................................8

推荐标的： .............................................................................................. 15

4.1. 圣农发展.................................................................................................................15

4.2. 海大集团.................................................................................................................16

4.3. 温氏股份.................................................................................................................17

1.1. 行情回顾

超强猪周期反转预期的刺激，生猪养殖标的股价在 1 季度大幅上涨，饲料板块中涨