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【医疗科技行业盈利预览】医疗科技与分销领域的盈利预览主要关注的是该行业内主要公司的财务表现，尤其是那些在美股市场上市的企业。JP摩根的报告涵盖了2019年1月28日和2月4日这一周内发布4季度18年（4Q18）财报的公司。报告的目的是为投资者提供有关这些公司在即将发布的业绩中的预期表现，以帮助他们做出投资决策。报告中提及的公司包括： 1. AmerisourceBergen (ABC US) - 预计其调整后每股收益（EPS）为$1.51，低于市场共识的$1.52，与去年同期相比下降了2%。这可能反映出行业竞争加剧或运营成本上升的影响。 2. McKesson Corporation (MCK US) - 被评为“Overweight”（超重评级），但没有给出新的目标价格。其4Q18的业绩预期对投资者来说将是一个重要的参考点。 3. Premier, Inc. (PINC US) - 同样没有更新的目标价格，但预计在2月5日公布业绩，投资者将关注其业务增长和盈利能力。 4. Cerner (CERN US) - 未提供新的目标价格，但投资者对其在医疗信息化领域的持续创新和市场份额的表现将保持密切关注。 5. LabCorp (LH US) - 被评为“Overweight”，预计目标价格为$185，显示出分析师对其未来增长潜力的乐观态度。 6. Cardinal Health (CAH US) - 预期每股收益较低，但没有价格变化，投资者将评估其在供应链管理和服务方面的表现。报告强调了JP摩根可能与所覆盖公司存在业务关系，这可能会对研究报告的客观性产生潜在冲突。因此，投资者在依赖报告信息做决策时，应考虑这一因素。整个医疗科技与分销行业正面临着诸多挑战，包括法规变化、成本控制、市场竞争以及技术的快速发展。每家公司在应对这些挑战时的战略和执行能力将是影响其盈利表现的关键。此外，医疗保健服务的分销、技术和药店福利管理(PBMs)领域的发展趋势，如数字化转型、大数据分析和个性化医疗等，也将影响公司的长期业绩。对于投资者而言，理解这些公司的核心竞争力、增长策略以及它们如何在行业变革中保持领先地位是至关重要的。同时，深入研究每个公司的财务报表、业绩预告和管理层的评论，将有助于形成全面的投资视角。

www.jpmorganmarkets.com

North America Equity Research

25 January 2019

Equity Ratings and Price Targets

Mkt Cap

Rating

Price Target

Company

Ticker

($ mn)

Price ($)

Cur

End

Date

End

Date

AmerisourceBergen

ABC US

17,260.17

79.36

n/c

88.00

Dec

n/c

McKesson Corporation

MCK US

25,047.43

126.12

n/c

160.00

Dec

n/c

Premier, Inc.

PINC US

5,590.96

39.75

n/c

45.00

Dec

n/c

Cerner

CERN US

18,321.22

54.08

n/c

60.00

Dec

n/c

LabCorp

LH US

14,103.20

136.00

n/c

185.00

Dec

n/c

Cardinal Health

CAH US

14,954.22

48.87

n/c

59.00

Dec

n/c

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 23 Jan 19.

Healthcare Technology &

Distribution

Earnings Preview for Weeks of 1/28 and 2/4

Health Care Services –

Distribution, Technology & PBMs

Lisa C. Gill

(1-212) 622-6466

lisa.c.gill@jpmorgan.com

Bloomberg JPMA GILL <GO>

Michael Minchak, CFA

(1-212) 622-6506

michael.minchak@jpmorgan.com

Anne E. Samuel

(1-212) 622-4163

anne.e.samuel@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

See page 25 for analyst certification and important disclosures.

J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its

research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that

the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this rep

ort as only a single

factor in making their investment decision.

Calendar 4Q18 earnings season kicks off next week for our Healthcare Technology &

Distribution universe, with reports from AmerisourceBergen before open on Thursday,

1/31, McKesson Corporation after the close on Thursday 1/31, Premier Inc. before

open on Tuesday, 2/5, Cerner after close on Tuesday, 2/5, and LabCorp and Cardinal

Health before open on Thursday, 2/7. Below, we provide a brief overview of our

expectations, and include additional commentary and detailed projections in the note.

 AmerisourceBergen (ABC/N, Thurs, 1/31, AM). We project F1Q19 adjusted EPS

of $1.51, which is below the Bloomberg consensus of $1.52 and represents a 2.6%

y/y decrease. While the company does not provide explicit quarterly guidance,

management noted that it expected F1Q19 adjusted EPS to be down slightly y/y.

We believe it is likely that the company lowers the midpoint of the FY19 adjusted

EPS guidance range, as recent news of layoffs at PharMEDium’s Memphis facility

appears to point to the likelihood of a sizeable headwind. We expect the focus of the

call to be on branded inflation and generic deflation trends, the potential for a shift

to a net pricing model, evolution of the wholesaler compensation model and the

regulatory backdrop. From a company-specific standpoint, we expect a focus on

PharMEDium, performance in specialty, the H.D. Smith integration, opex trends,

and plans for capital deployment. Conference call on Thursday, 8:30am ET; dial-

in (612) 234-9960, no passcode.

 McKesson (MCK/OW, Thurs, 1/31, PM). We believe MCK is likely to deliver

F3Q19 adjusted EPS in line with or above expectations. Our estimate of $3.14

compares to Bloomberg consensus of $3.16 and represents an 8.0% y/y decline, with

the y/y decline driven by a ~6.1% decline in operating profit, with the benefit from

share repo more than offset by a higher tax rate vs. the prior year period. With just

over two months left in the fiscal year, we expect the company to narrow the

existing guidance range, and believe the midpoint of the adjusted EPS range could

increase slightly (no opioid stewardship expenses). We expect the focus of the call to

be on the outlook for branded price inflation and generic deflation, thoughts on the

wholesaler compensation model and any update on opioid-related costs, thoughts on

near-term contract renewals, and plans for additional capital deployment in the near

term. Conference call on Thursday, 5:00pm ET; dial-in (323) 794-2588,

passcode: McKesson.

 Premier, Inc. (PINC/N, Tues, 2/5, AM). We are adjusting our model to reflect the

change to ASC 606 accounting, and note that for YoY percentages, the prior year

has not been restated and is therefore not comparable. We now model F2Q19

North America

Equity Research

25 January 2019

Lisa C. Gill

(1-212) 622-6466

lisa.c.gill@jpmorgan.com

revenue of $417M, vs consensus of $417M and representing growth of 1.3% y/y.

Top-line growth is primarily driven by 2% growth in Supply Chain Services and

Performance Services shows a 1% y/y decline. Our EPS estimate for the quarter is

aligned with the Street at $0.64 (noting PINC has exceeded consensus adjusted EPS

in 8 of the past 12 quarters) and represents growth of 28% y/y. We model EBITDA

margin expansion of 25 bps y/y, driven by margin expansion in PS (up 50 bps) offset

by SCS margin contraction (down 50bps). Our full year EPS stands at $2.65, in line

with guidance of $2.55-2.67 and the Street. On the call we will be looking for

commentary around the hospital environment and utilization, the Washington policy

backdrop, PS demand, and uses of cash. Conference call on Tuesday, Feb 5 at

8:00AM ET; dial-in (844) 296-7719, passcode 6890785.

 Cerner (CERN/N, Tues, 2/5, PM). We model revenue of $1.4B, vs consensus of

$1.4B, at the mid-point of 4Q revenue guidance of $1.37B-$1.42B. Our estimate

reflects 6.7% y/y growth. We model 4Q18 new business bookings of $1.96B, a

decrease of -16% y/y and within the guidance range of $1.85B-$2.05B. Our 4Q

adjusted EPS estimate is $0.63, up 8.7% y/y and in line with consensus and the mid-

point of 4Q EPS guidance of $0.62-$0.64. We model a 3.1% decrease in adjusted

operating income to $261M for an operating margin of 18.6%, down 187 bps y/y.

Management has not yet provided any guidance for 2019 which we will be awaiting

on the earnings call. On the call we will be looking for color on the demand

environment, competitive landscape, and bookings pipeline, with mgmt. likely to

provide more details on its long-term financial plan at the analyst day on February

13. Conference call on Tuesday, Feb 5 at 4:30 PM ET; dial-in (678) 509-7542,

passcode: Cerner.

 LabCorp (LH/OW, Thurs, 2/7, AM). Our EPS estimate for the quarter is $2.49,

representing growth of 7.6% y/y vs. the Street at $2.52. We forecast revenue of

$2.79B, in line with consensus and representing growth of 1.5% y/y. For the full

year, our EPS stands at $11.00, at the midpoint of guidance for $10.95-11.05, with

revenue at $11.3B, in line with guidance for 9.9-10.3% growth. Looking ahead to

2019, we expect management to provide guidance on the call and we estimate

revenue of $11.45B, reflecting 1% YoY growth, and EPS of $11.10, up 1% YoY, in

line with stated management expectations for modest EPS growth. We will look for

commentary on the conference call around underlying organic growth, and any color

on the recent headwinds, pricing and volume trends, thoughts around the CRO

landscape, and collaborative growth opportunities. Conference call on Thursday,

9:00AM ET; dial-in (844) 634-1444, passcode 1669755.

 Cardinal Health (CAH/N, Thurs, 2/7, AM). We project F2Q19 adjusted EPS of

$1.06, which compares to Bloomberg consensus of $1.10 and represents a 30% y/y

decline. Cardinal has a strong track record for quarterly earnings beats, and we

believe the company has set a relatively low bar in F2Q (management guided to

operating profit flat sequentially, despite historically delivering a sequential

improvement). We believe the company is likely to narrow the current adjusted EPS

guidance range (given increased visibility around branded inflation), and believe the

midpoint can increase slightly (current guidance includes a minor headwind from

opioid assessment expenses). We expect the focus of the call to be on branded

inflation and generic deflation trends, the potential for manufacturers to shift to a net

pricing model, the evolution of the wholesaler compensation model and the

regulatory backdrop. From a company-specific standpoint, we expect a focus on the

Cordis business, exam gloves, customer renewals, opioid costs, the cost savings

initiative and capital deployment. Conference call on Thursday, 8:30am ET.

North America

Equity Research

25 January 2019

Lisa C. Gill

(1-212) 622-6466

lisa.c.gill@jpmorgan.com

AmerisourceBergen

Neutral

Company Data

Price ($) 79.36

Date Of Price 23 Jan 19

52-week Range ($) 106.27-69.36

Market Cap ($ mn) 17,260.17

Fiscal Year End Sep

Shares O/S (mn) 217

Price Target ($) 88.00

Price Target End Date 31-Dec-19

AmerisourceBergen (ABC;ABC US)

FYE Sep 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E

EPS ($)

Q1 (Dec) 1.27 1.36 1.55 1.51 -

Q2 (Mar) 1.68 1.77 1.94 2.01 -

Q3 (Jun) 1.37 1.43 1.54 1.66 -

Q4 (Sep) 1.30 1.33 1.45 1.54 -

FY 5.62 5.88 6.49 6.72 7.21

Bloomberg EPS FY ($) 5.55 5.88 6.49 6.79 7.44

Source:

Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. 'Bloomberg' above denotes Bloomberg consensus

estimates.

 AmerisourceBergen (ABC/Neutral) F1Q19 results: Earnings release Thursday,

January 31 before market open. Conference call at 8:30am, ET; (612) 234-9960;

No passcode.

 We project F1Q19 adjusted EPS of $1.51 which is below the Bloomberg

consensus of $1.52 and represents a 2.6% y/y decrease. We point to a strong

track record for delivering results ahead of expectations (adjusted EPS has come

in above Bloomberg consensus in each of the past 12 quarters). We forecast

F1Q19 y/y revenue growth of 9.0%, which should be driven by organic growth,

growth in the specialty business, contribution from the H.D. Smith acquisition,

and incremental contribution from the transitioned Rite Aid stores. We expect

overall adjusted EBIT margin to decline 16 bps y/y, as we point to headwinds in

the PharMEDium and Lash businesses. As ABC will be the first Rx channel

company to report C4Q results, we expect a focus on branded price inflation and

generic deflation trends, the potential for manufacturers to shift to a net pricing

model, the broader evolution of the wholesaler compensation model and the

regulatory backdrop (including potential changes around Medicare Part B). From

a company-specific standpoint, we also expect a focus on PharMEDium,

performance in specialty, the H.D. Smith integration, any update on opioid costs,

opex trends, and additional plans for capital deployment.

Table 2: AmerisourceBergen – F1Q19 JPM Estimates versus Consensus

$ in millions, except per share amounts

JPM F1Q estimate

Y/y change

Bloomberg Consensus

Total Revenue

$44,113

9.0%

$43,824

Gross Profit

$1,191

7.0%

Gross Margin

2.70%

(5)

Total EBITDA

$537

3.1%

$538

Operating Profit

$462

5.2%

Operating Margin

1.05%

)

Interest Expense

$48

32.7%

Tax Rate

21.5%

(273) bps

Diluted Sharecount

216

2.2%

Adjusted EPS

$1.51

2.6%

$1.52

Source: Company reports, J.P. Morgan estimates. Consensus estimates from Bloomberg.

 Segment Performance: In the Pharma Distribution segment, we expect revenues

to increase 9.0% y/y (growth in existing customers, specialty and incremental

contribution from H.D. Smith and transitioned Rite Aid stores), with operating

profit down -7.9% y/y as we project operating margin to decline by 16 bps y/y

(driven in part by a tough comp in the PharMEDium business). In the Other

segment (which includes MWI, World Courier and AmerisourceBergen

Consulting Services), we project revenue to grow 8.0%, operating profit to

North America

Equity Research

25 January 2019

Lisa C. Gill

(1-212) 622-6466

lisa.c.gill@jpmorgan.com

increase 4.8% y/y, with operating margin down 19 bps y/y due in part to

continued headwinds in the Lash business.

Table 3: AmerisourceBergen F1Q19 Segment-Level Projections

$ in millions

ABDC

Y/y change

Other

Y/y change

Revenues

$42,455

9.0%

$1,684

8.0%

Operating Profit

$357

7.9%

$105

4.8%

Operating Margin

0.84%

(16)

6.2%

(19)

Source: Company reports, J.P. Morgan estimates.

 JPM Est. vs. Consensus. Our revenue estimate is slightly above Bloomberg

consensus, while our EBITDA estimate is essentially in line with consensus, and

our adjusted EPS estimate of $1.51 is just below Bloomberg consensus of $1.52.

While the company does not provide explicit quarterly guidance, management

did note that F1Q19 adjusted EPS was expected to be down slightly y/y, as the

company lapped a strong PharMEDium quarter in the year-ago period.

 Results vs. Expectations. We point to a strong track record for quarterly

earnings beats, as ABC has exceeded consensus adjusted EPS in each of the past

12 quarters. Over those past 12 quarters, the company has delivered quarterly

EPS, on average, approximately 6% above consensus, although we note that

several of the larger beats in recent quarters were driven by below the line items,

including a lower tax rate.

 Guidance: We believe it is likely that the company lowers the midpoint of the

FY19 adjusted EPS guidance range. Recall that the company had guided to FY19

adjusted EPS of $6.65 to $6.95, reflecting y/y growth of 2% to 7% (our current

estimate of $6.72 is below Bloomberg consensus of $6.79). Management had

noted that the guidance incorporated a range of scenarios around PharMEDium

(driving the expectation for Pharma Distribution adjusted operating profit to grow

in the low-single- to mid-single-digit range). However, in our view, recent news

of layoffs at PharMEDium’s Memphis facility appears to point to the likelihood

of a sizeable headwind. That said, we look for any update around the core pharma

distribution business (management had previously indicated that it expected

operating income growth solidly in the mid-single digits excluding PharMEDium

headwinds. Note that ABC had not factored in any incremental headwind into

guidance going forward from the New York opioid assessment.

 Historical Stock Performance: Of the past 12 earnings releases, ABC shares

have traded up on the day of the earnings release 5 times and down on 7. Shares

traded down 5.2% on the F4Q earnings release, down 0.6% on the F3Q earnings

release, up 3.3% on the F2Q earnings release, and down on each of the prior 3

earnings releases. Shares are typically volatile on earnings, with share price

moves in excess of 4% on 9 of the past 12 earnings releases.

 What to look for on the call: 1) any changes to the assumptions underlying the

FY19 guidance, and factors that could drive FY19 adjusted EPS to the upper or

lower end of the guidance range; 2) any update on PharMEDium and the

resumption of production at the Memphis facility; 3) the outlook for branded

inflation and generic deflation; 4) thoughts on the regulatory backdrop and

potential impact from proposed legislation; 5) views on the potential shift to net

pricing and the evolution of the wholesaler compensation model (including

adjustments to manufacturer fee for service rates and the initiative to implement

differential pricing across various product types); 6) underlying volume trends in

the U.S. pharma market; 7) performance of the AmerisourceBergen Specialty

Group and potential impact from biosimilars; 9) progress around the WBA

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