巴克莱-美股-生物制药业-美国生物制药：下周有何期待？-14-26页.pdf
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Equity Research
4 January 2019
CORE
Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 20.
U.S. Biopharmaceuticals
What To Expect Next Week in SF
Focus on catalyst-rich year and overall sentiment heading into 2019. The 2019
healthcare conference season kicks off next week in San Francisco, and we anticipate
much of the commentary to focus on overall expectations looking ahead to FY2019
given what we’d characterize as a tough end to 2018 (NBI -9%; DRG +4%; S&P -6%).
Broadly speaking, we think the general tone will be largely conservative in large cap
Biopharma after an uninspiring 3Q18 and low growth expectations, though could be
more bullish in SMid cap Biotech given the pace of innovation poised to accelerate this
year. In our view, the modest expectations and negative sentiment heading into the
year set the group up well for a modest re-rating in 2019, and we maintain our positive
outlook on the sector; see The 2019 Outlook Global Pharma Outlook and Company
Profiles – A Focus on 2019, both published on 1/3/2019. While we do not anticipate
any major data disclosures at the conference, we could be provided with incremental
updates on the numerous catalysts expected near-term across biotech (i.e. Gilead’s
NASH program, Biogen’s Alzheimer’s assets, Celgene’s luspatercept/bb2121, Alexion’s
Ultomiris, and Vertex’s CF franchise).
Potential 4Q18 pre-announcements: Unlike in past years, Celgene is not expected to
release 2018 financial results given what was characterized on the 3Q earnings call as
“tight timelines between year-end and the conference” but with the pending Bristol
deal, it is less relevant. Additionally, we suspect Regeneron could announce 4Q18 US
Eylea sales—we forecast $1.028B vs. consensus at $1.035B—as well as some guidance
metrics (e.g., unreimbursed R&D, SG&A, Sanofi reimbursement of commercialization
expenses and tax rate). Lastly, we suspect that Vertex could provide 4Q CF sales details
but the main focus is on the clinical development side.
Potential 2019 and longer-term guidance updates: Several of the major pharmas
have already provided initial 2019 guidance in conjunction with 3Q18 earnings. While
AbbVie has given preliminary growth expectations for 2019 EPS, we think management
may provide us with a more concrete range for the year. Additionally, we look for
Celgene to provide 2019 guidance (total revs, EPS, and product sales). We also
anticipate Vertex will provide 2019 CF revenue guidance (unlikely broken out on a
product-by-product basis) and non-GAAP R&D/SG&A expense guidance.
Regulatory and commercial updates: While we expect minimal late-stage pipeline
updates, despite a catalyst-heavy 1H19/mid-2019, we may be provided incremental
regulatory and commercial updates. Namely, we expect interest in the BMY/CELG deal
that was announced yesterday to be a topic that is widely brought up at the conference
(see BMY/CELG - Top 20 Questions for BMY/CELG deal; BMY/CELG - Additional
Thoughts on Bristol / Celgene Deal; and BMY/CELG - Initial Thoughts on Bristol /
Celgene, 1/03/19).
INDUSTRY UPDATE
U.S. Biopharmaceuticals
POSITIVE
Unchanged
U.S. Biopharmaceuticals
Geoff Meacham, Ph.D.
+1 212 526 2795
geoffrey.meacham@barclays.com
BCI, US
Olivia Brayer
+1 212-526-5914
olivia.brayer@barclays.com
BCI, US
Scott Puckhaber, MD
+1 212 526 5157
scott.puckhaber@barclays.com
BCI, US
Jason Zemansky, PhD
+1 212 526 6608
jason.zemansky@barclays.com
BCI, US
Greg Harrison, CFA
+1 212 526 1544
greg.harrison@barclays.com
BCI, US
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