2022 年石油和天然气行业趋势（英）.pdf
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S&P Global Ratings 1
Industry Top Trends 2022
Oil and Gas
Will The Positive Ratings Trend Continue?
What’s changed?
Hydrocarbon prices rebounded strongly in 2021, thanks to global economic
reopenings, supportive OPEC policies, and ongoing production discipline from North
American producers. In some regions, natural gas prices reached record levels.
Environmental, social, and governance (ESG)/Energy transition Last year will be
remembered for the acceleration and more widespread adoption of stricter
environmental regulation and climate change policies at the company as well as
sovereign level. It will also be remembered for successful ESG shareholder activism
by some companies' board of directors.
Healthy levels of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in North America. Most
companies completed transactions largely using equity and adhered to a
conservative financial policy.
What are the key assumptions for 2022?
Oil and natural gas prices should remain supportive for maintaining the industry's
credit quality. If COVID-related economic effects improve, demand in the second
half could outstrip supply and lead to higher prices.
Expect issuers to focus more on shareholders with the industry largely restoring
its balance sheet.
Global refining to continue to recover in 2022, with less planned downtime and
utilization remaining in a narrow band.
What are the key risks around the baseline?
How will supply respond? Any disagreements between OPEC+ countries or a
significant shale production ramp-up could lead to more volatile oil prices.
COVID. The potential for more serious mutations of the virus and the implications of
further lockdowns remain a threat.
Accelerated energy transition and regulations. Tighter climate change regulations,
carbon tax increases, and stringent legislation could result in higher costs, capital
reallocation, and less access to capital markets.
This report does not
constitute a ratings action
January 25, 2022
Authors
Thomas Watters
New York
+1 212 438 7818
thomas.watters
@spglobal.com
Michael Grande
New York
+1 212 438 2242
michael.grande
@spglobal.com
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