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Please refer to page 150 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

14 February 2019 Global

EQUITIES

Key stocks

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, February

2019; pricing as of 11 Feb

Inside

TOTAL (FP FP) 3

Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA LN) 17

Exxon Mobil (XOM US) 31

BP (BP/ LN) 46

Chevron (CVX US) 61

OMV (OMV AV) 76

Galp Energia SGPS (GALP PL) 90

Repsol (REP SM) 101

Petrobras (PBR US) 113

Equinor (EQNR NO) 125

Eni (ENI IM) 137

Analysts

Macquarie Capital (Europe) Limited

David Hewitt +44 2030 37 5492

[email protected]

Giacomo Romeo, CFA +44 20 3037 4445

[email protected]

Naisheng Cui +44 203 037 4062

[email protected]

Global Integrated Oil and Gas

How deep is your love

Key points

 Macquarie transfers primary coverage of the 5 global super-majors

 Total now our top pick among the supermajors. OMV among the mid-cap

majors

 New global LNG report also released, a key segment for the global super-

majors

Transfer of coverage for the global super-major oil companies

David Hewitt has assumed primary coverage for the 5 global super-majors,

Giacomo Romeo continues as a listed analyst for those stocks, as well as his

primary coverage for both the European Integrated oil and refining sectors.

New super-majors pecking order

Total (Outperform, TP €63/sh) is our top pick; we also have Outperform

recommendations for Shell (Outperform, TP £28/sh) and ExxonMobil

(Outperform, TP US$83/sh). We have Neutral recommendations for BP (Neutral,

TP £5.8/sh) & Chevron (Neutral, TP US$117/sh).

Mid-cap integrated pecking order: OMV, GALP, REP

OMV (Outperform, TP €59/sh) is our new top pick among the mid-cap integrated

oil & gas companies due to its strong FCF generation, good IMO positioning and

attractive valuation. We continue to like Galp (Outperform, TP€16.9) for its sector

leading production and dividend growth. Repsol (Outperform, TP €17.7) remains

attractive for its best in class downstream business and underappreciated

upstream pre-FID portfolio. We have Neutral recommendations on Eni (Neutral,

TP €15.0), Equinor (Neutral, TP kr197) and Petrobras (Neutral, TP R$29.8).

Integrated oil and gas deep-dive…via powerpoint

The report considers the so called ‘Energy transition’, looking back to the super-

majors’ previous diversification efforts (nuclear, coal / metals & mining, office

systems, hotels etc.) and questioning whether oil and gas companies are the

automatic leaders into the non-hydrocarbon energy space. The report reminds us

that gas will outgrow oil going forward and we wonder if the super-majors should

focus on the transition from oil to gas, rather than away from hydrocarbons.

Within gas, LNG is the stand-out growth segment and the report focuses on the

super-majors’ relative positions. For the coverage we introduce a 4 metric

scorecard, considering upstream production growth, unit profitability, cashflow

growth and balance sheet strength. To open the power-point please click here.

LNG key driver for the super-majors – new Global LNG report

The report looks at both demand and supply drivers going forward. We forecast

the next two years to be well supplied, then a period of shortfall. The amount that

new projects are sanctioned this year and next will dictate if there is another

possible excess toward the middle of the next decade. For access to the report

which is titled ‘Loose, then tight, then loose again (maybe) click here.

Stock Price Rec. Target Price EPS (2019)

(local) Old New Old New Delta Ups. Old New Delta

BP/ LN 544p N N 530p 580p 9% 7% 0.60 0.50 -16%

RDSA LN 2427p OP OP 2800p 2800p 0% 15% 2.99 2.40 -20%

RDSB LN 2460p OP OP 2800p 2800p 0% 14% 2.99 2.40 -20%

FP FP €48.7 OP OP €60.0 €63.0 5% 29% 5.20 5.18 0%

ENI IM €14.7 N N €15.5 €15.0 -3% 2% 1.49 1.10 -26%

EQNR NO

kr194

OP N

kr245 kr197

-20% 2% 2.12 1.46 -31%

XOM US $74 UP OP $70 $83 19% 12% 4.59 3.77 -18%

CVX US $117 N N $128 $117 -9% 0% 8.23 6.55 -20%

PETR3 BZ R$54 N N R$27.5 R$29.8 8% -45% 2.41 2.92 21%

REP SM €14.9 OP OP €20.0 €17.7 -12% 19% 1.64 1.70 3%

OMV AV €46.2 N OP €47.8 €59.0 23% 28% 6.66 5.53 -17%

GALP PL €13.6 OP OP €18.0 €16.9 -6% 24% 0.89 0.96 9%

Avg. 1% -10%

14 February 2019 3

14 February 2019 France

EQUITIES

FP FP Outperform

Price (at 23:00, 11 Feb 2019 GMT) €48.72

Valuation

€

63.49

- DCF (WACC 8.2%, beta 1.0, ERP 6.5%, RFR 2.5%)

12-month target

€

63.00

12-month TSR

+34.9

GICS sector

Energy

Market cap

€m

128,709

Market cap

US$m

145,659

30-day avg turnover

€m

250.5

Number shares on issue

2,642

Investment fundamentals

Year end 31 Dec

2018A

2019E

2020E

2021E

EBIT

18.1

17.5

23.9

20.7

Reported profit

11.4

13.4

18.0

15.2

Adjusted profit

13.6

13.4

18.0

15.2

Gross cashflow

27.7

28.0

33.4

30.8

EPS adj

US$

5.17

5.18

7.01

6.00

EPS adj growth

22.0

0.3

35.3

-14.3

PER adj

10.7

10.6

7.9

9.2

Total DPS

US$

3.02

3.07

3.12

3.25

Total div yield

5.5

5.6

5.7

5.9

ROA

8.9

8.0

10.5

9.0

ROE

11.9

11.5

14.8

12.0

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February 2019

(all figures in USD unless noted, TP in EUR)

Analysts

Macquarie Capital (Europe) Limited

David Hewitt +44 2030 37 5492

david.hewitt@macquarie.com

Giacomo Romeo, CFA +44 20 3037 4445

giacomo.romeo@macquarie.com

Naisheng Cui +44 203 037 4062

naisheng.cui@macquarie.com

TOTAL (FP FP)

Bon

Key points

 Strong Target Price upside

 Attractive upstream / LNG profile

 Strong balance sheet

Primary coverage transfers with this report

Valuation: Target Price €63 /sh with Outperform recommendation

The valuation is generated using a blend of Sum of The Parts and DCF and

represents 29% upside to the current share price.

Why we have an Outperform recommendation

 Upstream growth: Total is continuing to drive growth in its upstream into the

next decade, with their forecast of 9% growth in 2019, following 8% in ‘18. In

the long term, it believes it can grow the upstream by ‘>2%/y’ from 20 – 25.

 Great LNG opportunity hopper: With positions in Arctic 2, Papua LNG and

the Nigeria NLNG T7 expansion project, along with an opportunity to

participate in a Qatar expansion. Total has the 2

largest LNG business (of

the Super-majors) in the segment, where scale matters.

 Well managed: The management has demonstrated capital discipline, and

made 2 strong acquisitions (we are not natural supporters of M&A – but the

Engie transaction augmented Total’s LNG portfolio, and the Maersk deal

appeared to be well timed).

 Growth without a Permian play: We are not convinced that every super-

major has to be in the Permian.

What we keep a weather eye on:

 The pace of energy transition: TOT is committing $1.5 – 2bn p.a. to its low

carbon electricity business (circa 11% of its total) where circa 70% will be

directed to expanding its renewables to electricity business. Our view is that oil

& gas companies changing their production base to a greater gas weighting,

and in certain opportunities taking gas into power to facilitate gas growth, is a

good strategy. We are less convinced that oil companies are good at

diversifying away from hydrocarbon exploration, exploitation and processing;

and suspect the realised returns will be of interest to the overall proposition.

 M&A: As stated we are not natural believers.

Top pick:

As we review the super-majors, we like Total’s relative position in terms of both

production growth and balance sheet probity. Delivering on the 9% upstream

production guidance may be the leading catalyst in 2019. Our blended SoTP /

DCF valuation provides the greatest upside of the super-major group as we

transfer coverage.

Macquarie Research Global Integrated Oil and Gas

14 February 2019 4

Inside

Bon 5

Valuation, recommendation, risks 6

Total strategy review 9

Appendices 14

FP FP rel France CAC 40 performance, & rec

history

Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no

Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February 2019

Company profile

Total is currently the (joint) second largest European integrated oil and gas

company, with a market capitalisation of ~US$145bn. Total was created by two

successive mergers – first Total and Belgium’s PetroFina to create Totalfina, then

Totalfina and Elf Aquitaine to create TotalFinaElf. The Group was renamed Total

in May 2003. Total’s primary listing is on the Euronext, Paris stock exchange in

France. Total engages in all aspects of the petroleum industry, including

upstream operations (oil and gas exploration, development and production, LNG)

and Down-stream operations (refining, marketing and the trading and shipping of

crude oil and petroleum products). It also has significant petrochemicals and

speciality chemicals businesses. A distinguishing aspect of Total is that unlike its

European peers it has a very low weighting to the US and is not currently

developing a material shale business there.

Investment thesis:

We see Total as the best positioned of its super-major peers as we start 2019:

with robust upstream growth (9% in 2019E, 5% cagr 2017 – 22E and >2% pa

from 20 – 25E – all company forecasts), an LNG business growing to take

advantage of the upcoming tight market (2021 – 2023E – please see our recently

released LNG report) and in upcoming project FID’s (Arctic 2, Nigeria LNG T7,

Cameron expansion, Papua LNG & Costa Azul) and growth in the downstream

with expansions in emerging markets. Financially the company is robust with

lower gearing than its European peers and continuing its share buy-back program

above its dividend.

Fig 1 Macquarie Supermajor scorecard result

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, February 2019

Production

growth

EV /DACF Profitability

Balance sheet

strength

Total score

OMV 1.25 1.25 1.25 0.50 4.25

TOT 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.75 3.50

GALP 1.25 0.50 1.25 0.50 3.50

REP 0.25 1.25 0.75 1.00 3.25

ENI 0.75 1.00 0.25 1.00 3.00

RDS 0.50 0.50 1.00 0.75 2.75

PBR 0.75 0.75 1.00 0.25 2.75

EQNR 0.75 0.75 0.50 0.50 2.50

BP 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.25 2.25

XOM 0.50 0.25 0.75 0.75 2.25

CVX 0.25 0.25 0.50 1.00 2.00

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