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能源转型的社会经济足迹:日本(英).pdf
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Socio-economic footprint of the energy transition
JAPAN
2
© IRENA 2022
Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced,
printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of the author(s) as the source
and IRENA as the copyright holder. Material in this publication attributed to third parties may be subject
to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need
to be secured before any use of such material.
ISBN: 978-92-9260-460-8
Citation: IRENA (2022), Socio-economic footprint of the energy transition: Japan, International Renewable
Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.
About IRENA
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) serves as the principal platform for international
co-operation, a centre of excellence, a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge,
and a driver of action on the ground to advance the transformation of the global energy system. An
intergovernmental organisation established in 2011, IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and
sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean,
solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and
low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org
Acknowledgements
This report was developed under the guidance of Rabia Ferroukhi and was authored by Bishal Parajuli,
Carlos Guadarrama, Gondia Sokhna Seck, Xavier Casals, Sufyan Diab and Ulrike Lehr. The modelling results
were provided by Ha Bui, Alistair Smith and Jon Stenning (E3ME, Cambridge Econometrics). The report
benefited from the reviews and inputs of Asami Miketa, Kenji Kato, Celia García-Baños, Emanuele Bianco,
Michael Renner, Diala Hawila, Justine Brun, Adrian Whiteman, Ricardo Gorini, Nicholas Wagner and Gayathri
Prakash and Abdullah Abou Ali (IRENA); Daisuke Hayamizu, International Affairs Office Energy Efficiency
and Renewable Energy Department Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE), METI - Japan;
Yasushi Ninomiya, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ); Mika Ohbayashi, Renewable Energy
Institute (REI); Katsumasa Tanaka, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES); and Keigo Akimoto,
The Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE).
IRENA is grateful for the generous support of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan,
which made the publication of this report a reality.
For further information or to provide feedback: publications@irena.org
Disclaimer
This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken
by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of
its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either
expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the
publication or material herein.
The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The
mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or
recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations
employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part
of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or
concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.
01
02
01
03
04
Contents
Executive summary 05
Introduction 12
Japan’s key indicators: Energy, economic growth,
welfare and jobs
16
2.1 The current energy mix
17
2.2 Economy as measured by GDP
20
2.3 The dimensions of IRENA’s welfare indicator
22
2.4 Job creation
28
2.5 Japan’s energy transition challenges and initiatives
33
Socio-economic impact of the energy transition 38
3.1 The Planned Energy Scenario (PES)
40
3.2 Policy inputs and assumptions in the 1.5°C Scenario
40
3.3 Economic gains, as measured by GDP, under the 1.5°C Scenario
41
3.4 Employment
44
3.5 Welfare
47
Conclusion 50
References 56
Annex I: Existing energy policies 64
Annex II: E3ME policies 68
02
Figures
FIGURE S1 Renewable energy generation in Japan, 2010 to 2020 05
FIGURE S2
Japan’s strategy for carbon neutrality by 2050 07
FIGURE S3
Japan’s GDP percentage difference between the 1.5-S and the PES, by driver, 2021 to 2050 08
FIGURE S4
Welfare index for the 1.5-S and difference in welfare between the 1.5-S and the PES, 2050 09
FIGURE S5
Employment in Japan, percentage difference between the 1.5-S
and the PES, by driver, 2021 to 2050
10
FIGURE S6
Energy sector (left) and renewable energy (right) jobs in the PES
and the 1.5-S, 2019, 2030 and 2050
11
FIGURE 1.1
Reducing emissions by 2050 through six technological avenues 14
FIGURE 2.1
Japan’s total primary energy supply, 1990 to 2020 18
FIGURE 2.2
Renewable energy generation, 2010 to 2020 19
FIGURE 2.3
Japan’s electricity transmission lines 20
FIGURE 2.4
Household consumption, capital investments, government spending and trade balance,
Japan, OECD, and East Asia and Pacific countries, 1970 to 2019
21
FIGURE 2.5
Structure of IRENA’s Energy Transition Welfare Index 23
FIGURE 2.6
Trends in greenhouse gas emissions and
greenhouse gas removals by sector, 1990 to 2018
27
FIGURE 2.7
Employment by sector of the economy 29
FIGURE 2.8
Women’s global participation in the renewable energy sector workforce 30
FIGURE 2.9
Regional siting of current power plants and available renewable energy resources 32
FIGURE 2.10
Challenges for the energy transition in Japan 33
FIGURE 2.11
Japan’s export and import of solar PV panels (in Billion USD), 2001 to 2018 34
FIGURE 2.12
Japan’s strategy for carbon neutrality by 2050 35
FIGURE 3.1
Japan’s GDP, percentage difference between the 1.5-S and the PES, by driver, 2021 to 2050 41
FIGURE 3.2
Employment in Japan, percentage difference between the 1.5-S
and the PES, by driver, 2021 to 2050
44
FIGURE 3.3
Overview of energy sector jobs in Japan under the 1.5-S and the PES,
by sector, 2019 to 2050
45
FIGURE 3.4
Renewable energy jobs in Japan, 2019, 2030 and 2050 in the PES and the 1.5-S 46
FIGURE 3.5
Welfare index for the 1.5-S and difference in welfare between the 1.5-S and the PES, 2050 47
FIGURE 4.1
Energy transition roadmaps and climate policy baskets 52
FIGURE 4.2
GDP, economy-wide employment and welfare difference in Japan in the two 1.5°C
Scenario variants compared with the PES, 2050
52
FIGURE 4.3
Challenges and opportunities presented by the energy transition in Japan 55
FIGURE A1
R&D expenditure on various energy technologies in selected countries, 2018 and 2019 66
03
Abbreviations
°C degrees Celsius
1.5-S IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario
BECCS bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
CCUS carbon capture, utilisation and storage
CO carbon dioxide
DACCS direct air capture with carbon storage
EUR euro
FIT feed-in tariff
GDP gross domestic product
GHG greenhouse gas
GW gigawatt
IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency
JPY Japanese yen
kWh kilowatt-hour
METI Ministry of Economy,
Trade and Industry
MW megawatt
NEDO New Energy and Industrial Technology
Development Organisation
NFC Non-Fossil Certificate
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development
PES Planned Energy Scenario
PV photovoltaic
R&D research and development
TFEC total final energy consumption
TPES total primary energy supply
TWh terawatt hour
USD United States dollar
Table
TABLE 3.1 GDP, economy-wide employment and population growth projections under the PES 40
Boxes
BOX 1.1 World Energy Transitions Outlook: 1.5°C Pathway 14
BOX 2.1
Measuring poverty in Japan 24
BOX 2.2
Women in the workforce and in the renewable energy sector 30
BOX 2.3
Japan’s ageing population 31
BOX 2.4
Renewable energy auctions In Japan 36
BOX 3.1
Drivers of GDP and employment during the energy transition* 39
BOX 3.2
Solar PV jobs in Japan 46
BOX 4.1
The value of collaboration for a successful transition 52
BOX A1
Fukushima Hydrogen Energy Research Field 67
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