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2022年世界核工业现状报告.pdf
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A Mycle Schneider Consulting Project
Paris, October 2022
The World Nuclear Industry
Status Report 2022
World Nuclear Industry Status Report
|
2022
|
2
Mycle Schneider
Independent Consultant, Paris, France
Project Coordinator and Lead Author
The World Nuclear Industry
Status Report 2022
Antony Froggatt
Independent Consultant, and Deputy Director and Senior
Research Fellow, Environment and Society Programme,
Chatham House, London U.K.
Lead Author
By
With
Paris, 2022 © A Mycle Schneider Consulting Project
Foreword by
Aviel Verbruggen
Prof. Dr. Emeritus, University of Antwerp, Belgium
Julie Hazemann
Director of EnerWebWatch, Paris, France
Documentary Research, Modelling and Datavisualization
M.V. Ramana
Simons Chair in Disarmament, Global and Human
Security at the Schoool of Public Policy and Global
Affairs(SPPGA), University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, Canada
Contributing Author
Michael Sailer
Independent Consultant, Former Chairman
of the Reactor Safety Commission and Former CEO
of Oeko-Institut, Darmstadt, Germany
Contributing Author
Tatsujiro Suzuki
Vice Director, Research Center for Nuclear Weapons
Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA), Former
Vice-Chairman of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission,
Japan
Contributing Author
Christian von Hirschhausen
Professor, Workgroup for Economic and Infrastructure
Policy, Berlin University of Technology (TU) and
Research Director, German Institute for Economic
Research (DIW), Berlin, Germany
Contributing Author
Alexander James Wimmers
Research Associate at the Workgroup for Economic
and Infrastructure Policy (WIP), Berlin University of
Technology (TU), Berlin, Germany
Contributing Author
Nina Schneider
Proofreading, Fact-Checking, Production, Translation,
Paris, France
Proofreading and Production
Agnès Stienne
Artist, Graphic Designer, Cartographer,
Le Mans, France
Graphic Design and Layout
Friedhelm Meinass
Visual Artist, Painter, Rodgau, Germany
Cover-page Design, Painting and Layout
World Nuclear Industry Status Report
|
2022
|
3
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The first thing to say is simply a huge, I mean a huge, huge thank you to the team that put the WNISR2022
together. The project has survived unfavorable if not adverse conditions for 15 years, but this year was
simply unprecedented. For health and career reasons, several core contributing authors unexpectedly
were not able to provide input this year. But… the extraordinary solidarity of the remaining team and
a couple of exceptional contributors who together picked up the tab made it possible to produce this
report together against all odds.
It has been 30 years that we produced a precursor WNISR. It has been 30 years that my friend Antony
Froggatt has been a solid partner in developing the report concept, contributing chapters, editing others,
and presenting the outcome. Thank you for everything.
At the core of the WNISR is its database designed and maintained by data manager and information
engineer Julie Hazemann who also develops most of the drafts for the graphical illustrations and
manages much of the cooperation with designer and webmaster. She expanded her contribution
significantly over the past few years. As ever, no WNISR without her. Thanks so much.
M.V. Ramana, over the years, has not only been a regular, reliable, professional, and insightful contributor
but also a wonderful person to work with. Heartful thanks.
Very glad to count Tatsu Suzuki amongst the core team, following decades of cooperation under various
circumstances and organizational arrangements. Thank you very much for your invaluable contributions.
Very happy to work with Michael Sailer again with whom I have crossed paths for some four decades
now. Thank you for your crucial, timely contribution to this project.
Christian von Hirschhausen, thank you for being back on the project. Your constructive thinking
and positivity are a real treat. Newcomer Alex Wimmers dived into the WNISR with skill and full
engagement. Thank you and see you both next year!
Nina Schneider has further expanded her meticulous proof-reading, source verification, and fact-
checking capacities. This year, she also drafted several sections of the report. Her production skills are
indispensable to the outcome. Merci beaucoup.
Special thanks go to Tim Judson and another expert who not only filled in unexpected gaps but superbly
mastered the tasks under impossible time constraints.
A big thank you to Aviel Verbruggen for his thought-provoking, generous foreword, delivered under
unreal time constraints.
Artist and graphic designer Agnès Stienne created the redesigned layout in 2017 and is constantly
improving our graphic illustrations that continue to get the praise they deserve around the world.
Thankyou once again.
A big thank you also to Arnaud Martin for his continuous, highly reactive, and reliable work on the
website www.WorldNuclearReport.org, dedicated to the WNISR Project.
For the fourth time in a row, we owe idea, design, and realization of the report-cover to renowned
German painter Friedhelm Meinass and designer Constantin E. Breuer, (“who congenially implements
my ideas”, dixit F.M.). Thanks so much for another striking, politically intelligent, and very generous
contribution.
World Nuclear Industry Status Report
|
2022
|
4
This work has greatly benefitted from partial proofreading, editing suggestions, comments, or other
input by Anton Eberhardt, Frank von Hippel, Lutz Mez, Wenmin Yu, and others. Thank you all.
The authors wish to thank especially Geoff Fettus, Matthew McKinzie, Axel Harneit-Sievers,
TanjaGaudian, Jutta Paulus, Christina Stober, and Fabian Lüscher for their enthusiastic and lasting
support of this project.
And everybody involved is grateful to the MacArthur Foundation, Natural Resources Defense Council,
Heinrich Böll Foundation, the Greens-EFA Group in the European Parliament, Elektrizitätswerke
Schönau, and the Swiss Renewable Energy Foundation for their generous support.
NOTE
This report contains a very large amount of factual and numerical data. While we do our utmost to verify
and double-check, nobody is perfect. The authors are always grateful for corrections and suggested
improvements.
Lead Authors’ Contact Information
Mycle Schneider
45, Allée des Deux Cèdres
91210 Draveil (Paris) France
Ph: +33-1-69 83 23 79
E: mycle@WorldNuclearReport.org
Antony Froggatt
53a Neville Road
London N16 8SW United Kingdom
Ph: +44-79 68 80 52 99
E: antony@froggatt.net
World Nuclear Industry Status Report
|
2022
|
5
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 3
FOREWORD 14
KEY INSIGHTS 16
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 18
INTRODUCTION 34
GENERAL OVERVIEW WORLDWIDE 37
PRODUCTION AND ROLE OF NUCLEAR POWER. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
OPERATION, POWER GENERATION, AGE DISTRIBUTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
IAEA vs. WNISR Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46
OVERVIEW OF CURRENT NEW-BUILD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
BUILDING VS. VENDOR COUNTRIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
CONSTRUCTION TIMES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51
Construction Times of Reactors Currently Under Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Construction Times of Past and Currently Operating Reactors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
CONSTRUCTION STARTS AND CANCELLATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
OPERATING AGE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
LIFETIME PROJECTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
FOCUS COUNTRIES 66
CHINA FOCUS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
FINLAND FOCUS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Fennovoima’s Hanhikivi Project Cancelled. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73
The Olkiluoto-3 (OL3) Saga . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
FRANCE FOCUS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .78
After Worst Performance in Decades, Worse is Yet to Come. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Nuclear Unavailability Review 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83
Lifetime Extensions – Fact Before License. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87
Embattled Clientele, Financial Trouble, Volatile Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
The Flamanville-3 EPR Saga Continued. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .91
GERMANY FOCUS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .92
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