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汇丰银行-全球-石油与天然气行业-主要整装油企业:股票回购的增值能力-523-35页.pdf
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汇丰银行-全球-石油与天然气行业-主要整装油企业:股票回购的增值能力-523-35页.pdf
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Disclosures & Disclaimer
This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in
the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.
Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc
View HSBC Global Research at:
https://www.research.hsbc.com
Unprecedented period of excess free cash generation points
to a sustained period of share buybacks across the sector
Per-share accretion to boost underlying growth and improve
market confidence in the outlook for dividends
Buy ratings reiterated on BP, ENI, REP, TOT and RDSA/B
Why hasn’t the sector outperformed? Stubbornly high dividend yields – both
absolute and relative to market – point to a lingering market scepticism on the
strength of the big oils’ financial frameworks. We think this is a key factor behind the
stagnant performance of the sector, but it is not consistent with the outlook for an
almost unprecedented period of excess free cash generation from the group.
Strong support for dividend growth and buybacks: We estimate the sector’s
organic free cash yield at an average of ~10% for 2020e-23e at USD70/b, giving
plenty of headroom for both dividend growth and sustained share buybacks. We see
potential for buybacks to average 2-3% of market cap p.a. in the next few years, on
top of prospective dividend yields of 5-6% for the European names and 4-5% for the
US majors. Even at USD60/b there should be room for buybacks – albeit at a lower
level – given average forecast free cash yields of ~8%.
Don’t underestimate accretion per share: we estimate average upstream volume
growth of 2.6%pa through 2018-23e. Thanks to the accretive nature of buybacks, as
a proxy for underlying growth we see production per share up 5.0%pa in the period.
Shell is one to watch: we think the scale of Shell’s total dividend cost plus its aim to
resume DPS growth means that shrinking its equity base is more of a strategic
priority than most. We believe Shell has the flexibility to reduce its share count by
~4%pa through 2023e at a cost of ~USD10bn pa. On a per-share basis, this could
drive volume growth of ~6%pa, offsetting weaker top-line growth vs its major peers.
Acquisitions are a risk: the main risk to potential buybacks of this scale would be
substantial acquisition activity if it leads to more constrained balance sheets.
23 May 2019
Gordon Gray*
Global Head of Oil and Gas Equity Research
HSBC Bank plc
gordon.gray@hsbcib.com
+44 20 7991 6787
Kim Fustier*
Analyst, Oil & Gas
HSBC Bank plc
kim.fustier@hsbc.com
+44 20 3359 2136
* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is
not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations
Major integrated oils
Equities
Oil & Gas
Global
Integrated oils – summary of ratings and valuations
Current
Target
Upside/
Div yield
_______________ 2020e ________________
Company / Ticker
Currency
price
Price
Rating
Downside
2019e
P/E
EV/CF
FC yield
BP (BP/ LN)
GBp
557.2
650
Buy
16.7%
5.8%
10.7
5.7
11.5%
Chevron (CVX US)
USD
120.8
132.0
Hold
9.2%
4.0%
12.7
7.2
8.0%
ExxonMobil (XOM US)
USD
75.9
86.5
Hold
14.0%
4.5%
11.9
7.3
5.8%
Shell A (RDSA LN)
GBp
2,539
2,740
Buy
7.9%
5.8%
9.0
5.9
10.7%
Shell B (RDSB LN)
GBp
2,540
2,740
Buy
7.9%
5.8%
9.1
5.9
10.8%
Total (FP FP)
EUR
49.23
58.50
Buy
18.8%
5.5%
8.8
5.5
10.9%
ENI (ENI IM)
EUR
14.42
17.60
Buy
22.1%
6.0%
8.8
4.2
12.7%
Repsol (REP SQ)
EUR
14.88
18.40
Buy
23.7%
6.5%
6.8
4.4
14.5%
Equinor (EQNR NO)
NOK
183.9
212.0
Hold
15.3%
5.0%
9.6
4.1
12.9%
Source: HSBC estimates. Priced at close 20 May 2019
The accretive power of share buybacks
Equities
●
Oil & Gas
23 May 2019
2
The major oils have emerged from the crude price downturn into what we expect to be a period
of sustained excess free cash flow. In this report, we examine the companies’ capacity to
deploy this free cash on share buybacks in addition to dividend growth, and the implications of
this on per-share metrics.
We are positive on the sector, as reflected in the predominance of Buy ratings in our coverage.
In our view valuations still don’t reflect the strength of the companies’ financial framework and
its implications for dividend sustainability, but we think increasing visibility on share buybacks in
the coming year could be important for reinforcing shareholder confidence on this issue.
Price
Target
Upside/
Price
Target
__ Cap’n ,USDbn _
Price
Company
Rec.
Local
Price
downside
USD/ ADR
USD/ ADR
M/Cap
EV
Currency
BP
Buy
557.2
650
16.7%
42.6
49.6
144
201
GBp
CVX
Hold
120.8
132.0
9.2%
230
256
USD
XOM
Hold
75.90
86.5
14.0%
321
362
USD
RDS A
Buy
2539
2,740
7.9%
64.4
69.7
262
337
GBp
RDS B
Buy
2540
2,740
7.9%
262
337
GBp
TOT
Buy
49.23
58.50
18.8%
54.9
65.3
146
178
EUR
ENI
Buy
14.42
17.60
22.1%
32.2
39.3
58
75
EUR
REP
Buy
14.88
18.40
23.7%
26
38
EUR
EQNR
Hold
183.9
212.0
15.3%
20.9
24.2
70
84
NOK
Supermajor ave.
13%
European ave.
17%
Integrated oils: Valuation snapshot
________ P/E _______
________ P/CF _______
__ EV/Cash earnings __
__Organic FCF Yield __
DY
Company
2019E
2020E
2021E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2019E
BP
14.8
10.7
9.6
5.4
4.4
4.2
6.5
5.7
5.6
7.8%
11.5%
11.4%
5.8%
CVX
16.6
12.7
12.5
7.7
6.3
6.1
8.8
7.2
7.2
6.2%
8.0%
7.6%
4.0%
XOM
20.4
11.9
10.6
9.2
6.7
6.1
10.6
7.3
7.0
3.0%
5.8%
7.0%
4.5%
RDS
12.7
9.0
8.8
5.7
4.7
4.5
6.9
5.9
6.0
7.2%
10.7%
10.2%
5.8%
TOT
11.5
8.8
8.8
5.5
4.8
4.7
6.2
5.5
5.5
9.1%
10.9%
10.6%
5.5%
ENI
11.1
8.8
8.5
3.8
3.4
3.3
4.6
4.2
4.1
10.9%
12.7%
13.0%
6.0%
REP
9.9
6.8
7.1
3.7
3.1
3.2
5.1
4.4
4.1
10.8%
14.5%
12.7%
6.5%
EQNR
11.2
9.6
9.0
4.4
3.5
3.4
5.2
4.1
4.1
7.7%
12.9%
12.7%
5.0%
Supermajors
15.2
10.6
10.1
6.7
5.4
5.1
7.8
6.3
6.2
6.7%
9.3%
9.3%
5.1%
Europeans
11.9
9.0
8.7
4.7
4.0
3.9
5.7
5.0
4.9
8.9%
12.2%
11.7%
5.8%
Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates, Prices as of close at 20 May 2019
Accretive power of buybacks
Unprecedented period of excess free cash generation points to a
sustained period of share buybacks across the sector
Per-share accretion to boost underlying growth and improve market
confidence in the outlook for dividends
Buy ratings reiterated on BP, ENI, REP, TOT and RDSA/B
3
Equities
●
Oil & Gas
23 May 2019
The downturn’s legacy of scrip dividends
Long-term growth in dividends per share is arguably the single most important priority for the
major integrated oils. In its “cleanest” form – the US majors – it is reflected in a 37-year
unbroken record of dividend growth for Exxon, and 32 years for Chevron. Given the long-term
nature of their businesses, and particularly the relative inflexibility of much of their capex in the
short term, this makes managing crude price downturns a key issue.
For the US majors, with their typically lower dividend payouts vs their European peers, the
response to the last crude price downturn was simply to slow DPS growth significantly – to only
marginal growth in Chevron’s case.
For the Europeans, the response varied. ENI and Repsol were forced to cut their DPS in
domestic currency terms. Total’s DPS was not cut in domestic currency terms, but fell by over
15% in 2015 as a result of the USD’s surge, while Equinor’s fell by at least as much in the same
year with the switch to dollar-based dividends. BP and Shell declare quarterly dividends in US
dollars. DPS growth halted at both in the downturn - Shell from 2014 even before the BG
announcement and BP from 2016, although in BP’s case growth was resumed in mid-2018 at
the time of the BHP US deal announcement.
Integrated oils: average shares in issue, indexed to 2012
Source: Company data, HSBC
Four of the European oils – BP, Shell, Total and Repsol – used scrip dividends to varying
degrees to manage their balance sheets through the downturn, which has led to some
significant share count dilution as the cost of sustaining dividends per share:
Repsol’s scrip dividend option frequently had 50-60% shareholder acceptance through
2013-16, resulting in share count dilution of more than 20% in the period 2012-17.
Total had similar take-up over 2016-17, prompted by a discount on the scrip take-up price.
Coupled with USD5bn of stock (3.75% of the issued amount) issued to acquire Maersk Oil,
its 2018 share count was ~17% higher than in 2012 (including c4-5% dilution from
employee share schemes).
Equinor introduced a discounted two-year scrip dividend programme in 4Q15, and let it
expire as planned in 3Q17. The programme had a 40-50% take-up and increased Equinor’s
share count by almost 5% since 2015.
BP’s share count fell through buybacks in the period 2012-14, but rose again thereafter
with a combination of scrip dividends and shares issued (2% of its stock) for the 2016
ADCO transaction.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
BP
CVX
XOM
RDS
TOT
ENI
REP
EQNR
Some big increases in share
count at the European oils
Equities
●
Oil & Gas
23 May 2019
4
Prior to the 1.5bn (25%) increase in its share count to buy BG in 2016, Shell’s share count
had been relatively flat, with buybacks offsetting a scrip dividend option. In the downturn the
scrip was reintroduced, with the share count rising by ~4% before the start of the USD25bn
buyback programme in mid-2018. We calculate that this scrip dilution will be fully offset with
buybacks by 3Q19.
Exxon and Chevron were still buying back stock in 2013-14 (the end of the last crude price
upturn) and although employee share issuance has led to some limited dilution since, the
share count of both is still below 2012 levels.
The process reverses: a prolonged period of excess free cash flow
In our view the recent down-cycle differs from its predecessors in one crucial respect. The scale of
improvement in both operational and capital efficiency is unprecedented in our view. Operationally,
this can be seen in sector cash flows. For 2019e, we expect aggregate cash flow to be back up
to around 90% of peak levels, on an average Brent price less than 70% of peak. On capital
efficiency, company managements’ widespread embracing of simplification, standardisation and
digitisation – plus the effects of cost deflation – have seen a ~40% fall in development costs.
While we see spending increasing again from its 2017-18 lows we expect this to be a fairly gentle
increase, albeit with exceptions such as in the Permian. Importantly, we see enough durability in
recent trends – and behaviour changes – to be confident spending is not going back to anywhere
near previous levels.
Integrated oils: aggregate cash flow,
USDbn
Integrated oils: aggregate capex, USDbn
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates
Putting all this together, we see a sustained period of strong excess free cash flow from the
companies. For the group of US and European major oils we see this combined excess at an
average of roughly USD60bn pa in the next five years. For the Europeans alone, the equivalent
figure is ~USD40bn pa.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019e
2020e
2021e
2022e
2023e
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019e
2020e
2021e
2022e
2023e
Sector cash flow is back up
to ~90% of peak, but capex is
still 30-40% below
~USD60bn pa of excess free
cash flow
5
Equities
●
Oil & Gas
23 May 2019
US and European oil majors combined free cash flow vs shareholder distributions, USDbn
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates
The return to free cash positive has already prompted the restart of share buybacks at many
of the major oils. In brief, the companies’ stated policy and comments on buybacks at present
is as follows:
BP: committed to offsetting its 230m shares of scrip dividend issuance since 3Q17
(USD1.5-1.7bn) by the end of 2019. No further hard guidance, although management has
indicated that it will look at higher cash distributions when gearing is closer to the middle of
its 20-30% gearing range (vs just above 30% now pre-IFRS 16).
Chevron: buyback programme underway since 2H18; target level raised from USD4bn pa to
USD5bn pa following withdrawal of its offer for Anadarko (APC US, price USD72.75)
ENI: from 2019, share buyback guidance of EUR400m at USD60-65/b Brent, rising to
EUR800m at >USD65/b Brent if gearing stays below 20%.
Equinor: buybacks have been part of the “toolbox” since early 2018. Management has not
yet started a buyback but re-committed in February 2019 to review share buybacks at a
later stage.
Exxon: no current buybacks. Management stated at its analyst day in March that Exxon
has no need to reduce gearing further, and sees USD90bn of excess “available capacity”
(ie free cash flow) through 2025e.
Repsol: buybacks initiated since 2018 in order to offset dilution from continued scrip
dividend option. No additional buybacks planned, although management stated that it will
pursue this route “if it does not access enough high-return investment options”.
Shell: USD25bn buyback target to be completed by end-2020, first announced in 2015 in
conjunction with the offer for BG. Buybacks started in 2H 2018.
Total: targeting a total of USD5bn of share buybacks over the period 2018-20, including
USD1.5bn in 2019 at USD60/b Brent.
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e
Thousands
Sector FCF before dividends Dividends (ex.scrip) Cash dividend + buybacks
Scrip dividends
Share buybacks
Current management policy
on share buybacks
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