汇丰银行-全球-股票策略-全球股票观点：勇敢的自由裁量权-52-23页.pdf
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Disclosures & Disclaimer
This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in
the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.
Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (USA) Inc
View HSBC Global Research at:
https://www.research.hsbc.com
THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (THE "PRC")
(EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAO)
With significant further market rally unlikely we trim some
cyclicals, and add to defensives and consumer
Raise Real Estate sector and cut back Materials
Consumer and Technology showing Radar improvement
We lean against market rally, trimming cyclicals and adding to defensives and
consumer. ACWI is +15% YTD and near our year-end target. We see room for an
overshoot, with consensus EPS too low at +4% vs HSBCe 8%, and valuations
supported by low bond yields and equity volatility (see Room to run?, 21 April), but
most of the return for the year is likely made. We do a deep-dive on two of the
smallest and least understood sectors: Real Estate and Materials.
Raise Real Estate to overweight, supported by our lower-for-longer 2.1% US 10-
year yield forecast, and rising DM real wages, with the sector out-of-favor but seeing
strong relative dynamics. US and China/HK account for three-quarters of the sector,
with HSBC real estate analysts particularly highlighting Hong Kong. See page 8 for
HSBC Buy-rated stocks, from Germany’s Adler to Hong Kong’s Wheelock & Co.
Cut Materials to underweight, with sector dynamics deteriorating though it’s in favor
with investors; 45% is Chemicals and 9% Construction Materials, with less than 40%
Metals & Mining. Earnings weakness is led by Chemicals, where we do not see supply
rebalancing until mid-2020. See chart 28 for HSBC Buy-rated stocks in Construction
Materials, which is more correlated with infrastructure and Real Estate. See chart 27 for
HSBC Reduce-rated Materials stocks. HSBC Radar highlights (page 13) include:
1) Consumer improvement. Accelerating DM wage growth and falling core inflation
is driving real wages and consumer earnings revisions. Food & Beverage and Retail
now enter the attractive top-left Radar quadrant, alongside Household Products.
2) Technology less bad. Tech Hardware saw a significant upward Radar move, and
Semiconductors also nudged higher, supporting recent strong performance. Both
remain out of favor with investors, especially in US. We are overweight the IT sector.
3) Financials unattractive. The macro environment is challenging for the largest
global sector, with low bond yields, flat curves, and slowing GDP growth. Earnings
revisions have turned more negative, and the sector remains well-liked by investors.
4) Energy improvement may be short-lived. The sector was one of the largest
Radar risers this month, with earnings revisions following the oil price. With Brent
now above our forecast, and with sector risks asymmetric, we are neutral-weighted.
See www.research.hsbc.com/Radar for our interactive sector allocation framework
that looks for out-of-favor sectors with improving dynamics. See page 16 ‘HSBC
Radar Methodology: How it works’ for a description of the methodology.
2 May 2019
Ben Laidler
Global Equity Strategist
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
ben.m.laidler@us.hsbc.com
+1 212 525 3460
Alastair Pinder, CFA
Equity Strategist
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
alastair.pinder@us.hsbc.com
+1 212 525 4131
Amit Shrivastava*
Analyst
HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited
amit1.shrivastava@hsbc.co.in
+91 80 4555 2759
* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is
not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations
Global Equity Insights
Equity Strategy
Global
Radar: Discretion over valor
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