JP 摩根-美股-石油服务与设备行业-Q1美国石油服务与设备行业业绩预览-415-65页.pdf
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www.jpmorganmarkets.com
North America Equity Research
15 April 2019
Oil Services & Equipment
1Q19 Earnings Preview Part I: Setups, Hurdles &
Quick Takes
Oil Services and Equipment
Sean C Meakim, CFA
AC
(1-212) 622-6684
sean.meakim@jpmorgan.com
Bloomberg JPMA MEAKIM <GO>
Andrew P Herring, CFA
(1-212) 622-8585
andrew.p.herring@jpmorgan.com
Aaron Rosenthal, CFA
(1-212) 622-5828
aaron.rosenthal@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
See page 63 for analyst certification and important disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware
that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this rep
ort as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
With 1Q19 oil services earnings set to get underway a touch early this Thursday
as SLB reports prior to Good Friday, we’ve compiled a comprehensive guide for
how we’d be positioned into the first half of the group’s prints, where we think
buy side and sell side expectations deviate, and what potential catalysts we’re
watching for on the calls. In our “early” installment, we provide previews for the
17 covered companies reporting results through most of April, with more in-depth
summaries of our thoughts and estimates v. consensus in the interior. After a
decidedly quiet 1Q, we are probably more optimistic about this set of prints as
we’ve ever been since our May 2015 launch. And yet, Friday’s negative
preannouncement from NOV (-8% v. –1% OSX) if anything reinforced the
specter of “austerity” continues to penetrate deeper into the upstream supply
chain. Though we expect sell side numbers will drift lower during 1Q preview and
review season (including several of our own models), oil’s YTD rise (+41/33%
WTI/Brent) supports the buy side’s desire to buy “the last cut”. Though L-48
activity in 2H19 remains uncertain, those are questions to be sorted closer to
midyear (perhaps at our June Energy Conference). Below we provide “one liners”
on all 17 previews in this report, categorized by our expected market reaction to
the prints and how we’d respond.
1Q19 One Liners
Positive:
SLB: 1Q looks in line with preliminary $0.30-0.33 EPS guide but beat likely
contained; 2Q likely gets blessed but commentary around 2H19 visibility (and
firmed international growth confidence) more incremental to outlook. Market is
likely forgiving to further downward revisions to 2020 estimates as long as
Brent stays above $70/bbl.
HAL: After recent guide-downs, a “beat-and-meet” 1Q/2Q19 should be enough
for the shares to outperform, especially with WTI +$60. The quarter looks in
line-to-better on stronger volumes and lighter margin, while 2Q still a
transitional quarter given startup costs (JPMe 2Q $0.29 v. Street $0.28). A
continued focus on capital discipline can also distinguish v. peers.
FTI: Orders win the day as announced major awards set up (telegraphed) record
quarter and macro outlook likely constructive; guidance likely unchanged but
we think Street numbers are biased higher. Lingering “hair” around working
capital, ASC842 impact and sequential Subsea margin progression won’t go
away, but management continues to make strides to streamline messaging.
HP: Customer mix weighted toward large E&Ps and a fleet of in-demand super-
spec rigs should buoy H&P’s FY2Q19 results despite a declining industry rig
count; +$60 WTI could lead to HP raising the upper end of its upgrade guide,
but we expect the company to offer a Goldilocks mix of FCF and incremental
EBITDA.
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