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MCM美国大学生数学建模竞赛题目与答案:模拟鲭鱼和鲱鱼种群的纬度变化.pdf
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2023-08-21
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随着海洋温度的升高,面临困境的不仅仅是海洋物种的生命。气温上升的趋势也威胁着依赖特定捕鱼地点的渔民的生计。不幸的是,这一趋势正导致鱼群向北迁移,导致捕鱼地点不可靠。我们创建了一个模型,将气温变化与大西洋鲭鱼和大西洋鲱鱼的捕捞地点变化联系起来。 该模型基于缅因湾东北渔业科学中心底拖网调查的数据。虽然该地点不在苏格兰,但我们认为经度对位置变化的影响微乎其微。我们利用这些实验数据创建了一个模型,如果已知纬度或温度,该模型可应用于任何地点。我们的模型发现,温度会导致纬度发生明显变化,我们还确定了这种变化的程度。然后,我们利用这种变化来绘制鲱鱼和鲭鱼种群的未来位置图。
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2020108
Swimming in New Waters: Modeling the Latitudinal Shift of Mackerel and
Herring Populations
Summary
With rising ocean temperatures, the lives of marine species are not the only ones facing
difficulties. This trend in rising temperatures is also threatening the livelihood of fisherman who
rely on specific fishing spots. Unfortunately, this trend is causing fish populations to move
North, leading to unreliable fishing locations.
We create a model to relate this change in temperature to the change in locations of both
Atlantic Mackerel and Atlantic Herring. This model is based on data from the Northeast
Fisheries Science Center Bottom Trawl Survey in the Gulf of Maine. While this location is not in
Scotland, we determine longitude as having minimal effect on the change in location. We use
this experimental data to create a model that can be applied to any location if latitude or
temperature are known. Our model finds there is a clear change in latitude as a result of
temperature and we determine the extent of this change. We then use this change in order to map
future locations of both Herring and Mackerel populations.
2020108
Swimming in New Waters: Modeling the Latitudinal Shift of Mackerel and
Herring Populations
Table of Contents
Introduction
Method
Model
Result
Scenarios
Articles
References
2020108
Swimming in New Waters: Modeling the Latitudinal Shift of Mackerel and
Herring Populations
Introduction
Due to climate change, the rise in atmospheric CO2 levels has caused ocean temperatures
to escalate. Between 1993 and 2010, 90 percent of the warming on the earth has happened in the
ocean, leading to a steady increase in ocean heat content throughout the years (Dahlman &
Lindsey 2020). Though the ocean can absorb high amounts of heat without great increases in
temperature occurring, even small rises in water temperature can prove uncomfortable or
unsustainable to marine life, thus provoking sea creatures to relocate to new territories. Elevated
temperatures have encouraged the migration of marine life such as, mackerel and herring fish,
causing them to flee towards higher altitudes with cooler waters in their preferred water
temperature range (Ben Goldfarb, et al.). If not within their ideal temperature range, fish tend to
suffer low survival rates, especially during their developmental stages, which can lead to a
declining population (Sswat, Stiasny, Jutfelt, Riebesell, & Clemmesen 2018). In addition, local
fisheries would be at a disadvantage since the northward migration of marine species would
result in a smaller population of certain fishes in their primary locations (Serpetti, et al. 2017).
Fisheries provide a source of income to about 820 million people globally, if fish stocks diminish
in certain areas it could have serious economic repercussions (Fisheries).
In this paper we propose a model, for Scotland fisheries and others, which predicts the
final location of Herring and Mackerel fishes after a certain time period, considering the rise in
ocean heat content and the preferred temperature range of the fishes.
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