huiseyuce.zip_MATLAB财务数据_gm (1_1)_huiseyuce_数据预测代码_灰色模型

% function huiseyuce(aaa,moxingyucegeshu) function huiseyuce clc clear aaa=[871.700000000000;1198.29000000000;1497.56000000000;1697.90000000000;1817.25000000000;1911.30000000000;1971.41000000000;2080.04000000000;2279.34000000000;2523.73000000000;2821.11000000000;3433.50000000000;3984.10000000000;4746.16000000000;5823.41000000000;7021;7759.16000000000;]; langda=[];langda(1)=1; moxingyucegeshu=5; syms a b; c=[a,b]'; A=aaa'; B=cumsum(A); n=length(A); for i=1:n-1 C(i)=(B(i)+B(i+1))/2; end D=A;D(1)=[]; D=D'; E=[-C;ones(1,n-1)]; c=inv(E*E')*E*D; c=c'; a=c(1);b=c(2); F=[];F(1)=A(1); for i=2:(n+moxingyucegeshu) F(i)=(A(1)-b/a)/exp(a*(i-1))+b/a; end G=[];G(1)=A(1); for i=2:(n+moxingyucegeshu) G(i)=F(i)-F(i-1);%预测数据 end %检验模型内部可用 canca=A-G(1:length(A)) xiangduiwucha=canca./A % dlmwrite(['相对误差','.txt'],xiangduiwucha, '\n'); [Xp0,s1]=shujuchuli(A)%计算原始数据的均值以及方差S1 % dlmwrite(['相对误差平均值','.txt'],Xp0, '\n'); [Xp1,s2]=shujuchuli(xiangduiwucha) % dlmwrite(['平均值=','.txt'],Xp1, '\n'); % dlmwrite(['方差=','.txt'],s2, '\n'); fangchabi=s2/s1 find(abs(xiangduiwucha)<0.6745*s1) xiaowuchagailv=length(find(abs(xiangduiwucha)<0.6745*s1))/length(xiangduiwucha) % dlmwrite(['方差比=',num2str(fangchabi),'.txt'],fangchabi, '\n'); % dlmwrite(['小误差概率',num2str(xiaowuchagailv),'.txt'],xiaowuchagailv, '\n'); h1=figure(1);%模拟内部数据对比图 plot([1993:1993+length(A)-1],A,'o','markersize',11) hold on plot([1993:1993+length(G)-1],G,'-','Linewidth',1.5) ylabel('单位(亿元)','fontsize',15) xlabel('年','fontsize',15) h2=figure(2); plot([1993:1993+length(A)-1],xiangduiwucha,'o','markersize',11) G end function [Xp,u]=shujuchuli(X) a=0;bw=0; X=X-a; t=length(X); Xp=sum(X)/t;%X矩阵的平均值 rm=0; for i=1:t rm=rm+(X(i)-Xp)^2/(t-1); end rms=sqrt(rm);%标准差 switch t case 3 n=2.48 case 4 n=1.59 case 5 n=1.24 case 6 n=1.05 case 7 n=0.93 case 8 n=0.84 case 9 n=0.77 case 10 n=0.72 case 15 n=0.55 case 16 n=0.47 case 17 n=0.47 case 22 n=0.47 end aw=n*rms; u=sqrt(aw^2+bw^2); E=u/Xp; end