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ENERGY

TRANSITION

OUTLOOK

2021

A global and regional forecast to 2050

Energy demand CHAPTER 1

Foreword

CORE INSIGHTS

1. We are not meeting Paris ambitions; there is a very short window to close the gap

− Global energy-related emissions will fall only 9% by 2030, and the 1.5˚C carbon budget is emptied by then

− We estimate the global average temperature increase to reach 2.3˚C by end of the century

2. Electriﬁcation is surging ahead, and renewables will outcompete all other energy sources

− Electriﬁcation of ﬁnal energy demand will grow from 19% to a 38% share by 2050, powered

mainly by solar and wind

− 50% of all passenger-vehicle sales will be EVs in 2032

− Heat pump use will triple, providing 32% of heat in 2050 while consuming 9% of energy use for heating

3. Efﬁciency gains lead to a ﬂattening of energy demand from the 2030s

− Energy efﬁciency remains our greatest untapped resource against climate change

− Energy intensity (unit of energy per dollar of GDP) improvements at 2.4%/yr outpace GDP growth

during the coming three decades

− E

fﬁciency gains are driven mainly by electriﬁcation

4. Fossil fuels are gradually losing position, but retain a 50% share in 2050

− Gas maintains its current position, oil demand halves, and coal falls to a third of current use by 2050

− CCS deployment is too slow, and only 3.6% of fossil CO

emissions are abated in 2050

NEW INSIGHTS 2021

1. COVID-19 economic recovery spending is a lost opportunity

− Apart from the EU, COVID-19 stimulus packages are largely locking in carbon-intensive systems

2. Variability and low power prices are not roadblocks to a renewable-based power system

− Power-to-X, storage, connectivity, demand response, and carbon pricing will all help solar PV and

wind maintain their competitiveness

− Solar + storage is emerging as a new power plant category which will provide 12% of all

grid-connected electricity by 2050

3. Decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors requires far greater scaling of hydrogen, e-fuels, and biofuels

− Combined, hydrogen and e-fuels will cover only 5% of global energy demand by 2050

− Aviation, maritime, and heavy industry increase their relative share of emissions and remain heavy

users of unabated fossil fuels

4. Most hydrogen will be produced from dedicated renewables-based electrolysers by 2050

− Green hydrogen will dominate over time, with 18% of hydrogen supply produced via electrolysis from cheap

grid electricity and 43% from electrolysis using dedicated off-grid renewables

− Blue hydrogen will lose its cost advantage, providing only 19% of hydrogen supply for energy purposes

by 2050

Highlights

DNV Energy Transition Outlook 2021

We are not meeting Paris ambitions; there is a short

window of opportunity to close the gap

Global emissions likely peaked in 2019, followed by an

unprecedented 6% drop in 2020 due to COVID-19.

Emissions are now rising sharply again and will grow for

the next three years before starting to decline.

While they are being added at great speed, renewables

currently often supplement rather than fully replace

thermal power generation. By 2030, global energy-related

emissions are likely to be only 9% lower than 2019

emissions, and by 2050 only 45% lower. This is in sharp

contrast to ambitions to halve GHG emissions by 2030 and

to achieve the net zero emissions by 2050 required to limit

global warming to 1.5˚C. Our forecast is that we are most

likely headed towards global warming of 2.3˚C by 2100.

As CO

emissions continue to accumulate, the window of

opportunity to act narrows every year. Relying on large-

scale net-negative emissions technologies and carbon

removal in the latter half of the century is a dangerous,

high-risk approach. With global warming, every fraction

of a degree is important, and all options to reduce

emissions need urgent realization.

Electriﬁcation is surging ahead, and renewables will

outcompete all other power sources

Electriﬁcation is by far the most dynamic element of the

energy transition. The share of electricity in ﬁnal global

energy demand is set to double from 19% to 38% within

the next 30 years.

Solar PV and wind are already the cheapest form of new

power almost everywhere, and within a decade will also

be cheaper than operating existing thermal power in

most places. By 2050, solar and wind will represent 69%

of grid-connected power generation, and fossil power

just 13%. Connectivity, storage and demand-response

will be critical assets in the decarbonized power system.

On the demand side, passenger and commercial EV

uptake is rising quickly in Europe, China and to some

extent the US. Government incentives, cost reductions

and technology improvements in both batteries and

charging infrastructure will drive a rapid expansion.

By 2032, half of all new passenger vehicles sold globally

will be electric, with some regions lagging owing to

infrastructure challenges. In buildings, heat pumps use

will triple, providing 42% of space heat in 2050 while

consuming only 15% of energy used for space heating.

Highlights – Core insights

Efﬁciency gains lead to a ﬂattening of energy demand

from the 2030s

Energy efﬁciency is the unsung hero of the energy transi-

tion and should be the number one priority for companies

and governments. Many efﬁciency measures have

marginal or even negative costs, but due to split incentives

and/or a lack of long-term thinking, industry standards and

regulations are needed to ensure implementation.

Energy intensity (unit of energy per dollar of GDP) improve-

ments will average 2.4%/yr during our forecast period

– against the 1.7%/yr average over the last 20 years. Most of

the accelerated efﬁciencies are linked to electriﬁcation,

with the remainder coming largely from efﬁciency

improvements in end uses, such as better insulation. The

largest efﬁciency gains happen in the transport sector, but

there are signiﬁcant gains also in manufacturing and

buildings.

Overall efﬁciency gains will result in a levelling off in global

energy demand despite a population increase of 22% and

the global economy growing 111% the next 30 years.

Global energy demand will grow only 8% from 2019 to

2035, thereafter remain essentially ﬂat the next 15 years.

Fossil fuels are gradually losing position, but retain a

50% share in 2050

Fossil fuels have held an 80% share of the global energy

mix for decades. We forecast that, by mid-century, fossil

fuels will decrease, but still hold a 50% share of the

energy mix, testament to the inertia of fossil energy in an

era of decarbonization.

Coal use will fall fastest, down 62% by 2050. Oil use stays

relatively ﬂat until 2025 when it starts a steady decline, to

just above half of current levels by mid-century. Gas use

will grow over the coming decade, then levels off for a

15-year period before starting to reduce in the 2040s.

Gas will surpass oil as the largest energy source and will

represent 24% of global energy supply in 2050.

Decarbonized fossil energy is an important aspect of

reaching the Paris Agreement, but the uptake of carbon

capture and storage (CCS) is forecast to be woefully slow,

mainly for reasons of cost, with just 3.6% of fossil CO

emissions abated in 2050.

Highlights

DNV Energy Transition Outlook 2021

Source: UNEP report ‘Are we building back better’, Feb 2021

Note: In a separate report the IEA’s Sustainable Recovery Tracker

estimated that as of Q2 2021, clean energy measures totalled

USD380bn or just 2% of total ﬁscal support related to COVID-19

Pandemic recovery spending 2020

FIGURE 5

USD 341bn

USD 1,553bn

82%

18%

COVID-19 economic recovery spending is a lost

opportunity

Government interventions, to stop the spread of the virus

and then to restart activity, revealed how effective

national and global actions can be. Similar action and

funding have yet to be applied to the unfolding global

climate crisis.

The trillion of dollars pushed into the global economy

over the past 20 months have mainly been directed

towards emergency measures like wage supplements

and on building back the existing economic and indus-

trial engine. Yet the opportunity for a green reset of

production, transport and economic activity was unique,

and as we wrote in ETO 2020, “The post-COVID-19

stimulus packages hold the potential to alter the speed of

the transition.” With some notable exceptions, particularly

in the EU, governments have not steered recovery

spending towards a decarbonized outcome.

Global CO

and GHG emissions fell 6% in 2020 but will rise

again this year. While the emissions trajectory has shifted

down slightly, that is due to lost economic activity, not

energy-system renewal. The overall pace of the transition

has not accelerated, and that is a lost opportunity.

Variability and low power prices are not roadblocks to a

renewable-based power system

The present power system is not set up for variable

renewables as the dominant source of production.

Yet plunging costs, government support for renewable

power buildout, and carbon pricing will ensure that

renewables will eventually dominate power generation.

Over the coming 30 years, USD 12 trillion will be invested

in both building a larger grid and adapting it to the

variability of solar and wind through technical solutions

such as connectivity, storage, and demand response.

The cost of power from solar and wind will continue to

reduce but price cannibalization threatens the investment

case for renewable capacity if cheap power is unused at

times of ample supply. However, indirect electriﬁcation

through power-to-X will require massive renewable

electricity production, and along with various storage

solutions, will ensure that surplus power will be used,

and capture prices maintained at a satisfactory level.

Solar PV + storage will make solar more directly competi-

tive with thermal generation, nuclear and hydropower.

We ﬁnd that one third of all solar production will be built

with direct storage, and by 2050, solar PV + storage will

produce 12% of all grid-connected electricity.

Highlights – New insights

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