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Foreword
FOREWORD
Remi Eriksen
Group president and CEO
DNV
Welcome to DNV’s first standalone forecast of hydrogen
in the energy transition through to 2050.
While there are ambitious statements about the prominent
role that hydrogen could play in the energy transition,
the amount of low-carbon and renewable hydrogen
currently being produced is negligible.
That, of course, will change. But the key questions are,
when and by how much? We find that hydrogen is likely to
satisfy just 5% of global energy demand by 2050 — two
thirds less than it should be in a net zero pathway. Clearly,
much stronger policies are needed globally to push
hydrogen to levels required to meet the Paris Agreement.
Here it is instructive to look at the enabling policies in Europe
where hydrogen will likely be 11% of the energy mix by 2050.
Five percent globally translates into more than 200 million
tonnes of hydrogen as an energy carrier, which is still a
significant number. One fifth of this amount is ammonia,
a further fifth comprises e-fuels like e-methanol and clean
aviation fuel, with the remainder pure hydrogen.
Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe,
but only available to us locked up in compounds like fossil
fuels, gasses and water. It takes a great deal of energy to
liberate those hydrogen molecules — either in ‘blue’ form
via steam methane reforming of natural gas with CCS, or
as ‘green’ hydrogen from water and renewable electricity
via electrolysis.
By 2050, more than 70% of hydrogen will be green. Owing
to the energy losses involved in making green hydrogen,
renewables should ideally first be used to chase coal and,
to some extent, natural gas, out of the electricity mix. In
practice, there will be some overlap, because hydrogen is
an important form of storage for variable renewables. But it
is inescapable that wind and solar PV are prerequisites for
green hydrogen; the higher our ambitions, the greater the
build-out of those sources must be.
Hydrogen is expensive and inefficient compared with
direct electrification. In many ways, it should be thought
of as the low-carbon energy source of last resort. However,
it is desperately needed. Hydrogen is especially needed
in those sectors which are difficult or impossible to
electrify, like aviation, shipping, and high-heat industrial
processes. In certain countries, like the UK, hydrogen can
to some extent be delivered to end users by existing gas
distribution networks at lower costs than a wholesale
switch to electricity.
Because hydrogen is crucial for decarbonization, safety
must not become its Achilles heel. DNV is leading critical
work in this regard: hydrogen facilities can be engineered
to be as safe or better than widely-accepted natural gas
facilities. That means safety measures must be designed
into hydrogen production and distribution systems,
which must be properly operated and maintained
throughout their life cycles. The same approach must
extend to the hydrogen carrier, ammonia, which will be
heavily used to decarbonize shipping. There, toxicity is a
key concern, and must be managed accordingly.
It is no easy task to analyse the technologies and policies
that will kick-start and scale hydrogen and then model
how hydrogen will compete with other energy carriers.
As we explain in this report, there will be many hydrogen
value chains, competing not just on cost, but on timing,
geography, emission intensity, risk acceptance criteria,
purity, and adaptability to end-use. I commend the work
my colleagues have done in bringing this important
forecast to you, and, as always, look forward to your
feedback.
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