风险、不确定性和计划行为理论：一个旅游实例 2022-11-2 232152 9.pdf
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Risk, uncertainty and the theory of planned behavior: A tourism example
q
Vanessa Ann Quintal
a
,
*
, Julie Anne Lee
b
,
1
, Geoffrey N. Soutar
b
,
2
a
School of Marketing, Curtin University of Technology, Kent Street, Bentley 6102, Western Australia
b
Business School, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley 6009, Western Australia
article info
Article history:
Received 15 January 2009
Accepted 26 August 2009
Keywords:
Perceived risk
Perceived uncertainty
Theory of planned behavior
abstract
The differential impacts risk and uncertainty have on travel decision-making were explored by exam-
ining the constructs’ influence on the antecedents of intentions to visit Australia using the theory of
planned behavior. Respondents were obtained from onl ine consumer panels in South Korea, China and
Japan. The South Korean and Chinese samples were general population samples, while the sample from
Japan was an international travelers’ sample. The extended model fitted the data well, explaining
between 21 and 44 percent of the variance in intentions. Subjective norms and perceived behavioral
control significantly impacted on intentions in all country samples, whereas attitudes toward visiting
Australia were only significant in Japan. Subjective norms influenced attitudes and perceived behavioral
control in all country samples. Fina lly, perceived risk influenced attitudes toward visiting Australia in
South Korea and Japan, while perceived uncertainty influenced attitudes toward visiting Australia in
South Korea and China and perceived behavioral control in China and Japan.
Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Travel decision-making is a complicated process that is risky and
uncertain (Sirakaya & Woodside, 2005). Indeed, financial risks
(Um, Chon, & Ro, 2006), physical risks (Sonmez & Graefe, 1998a,
1998b), social risks (Carter, 1998) and health risks (Larsen, Brun,
Torvald, & Selstad, 2007) have all been suggested as important
inhibitors to travel. Despite this, far less attention has been focused
on travel inhibitors than on travel motivators. However, an
understanding of these constraints is crucial to researchers and
practitioners if they are to counteract the negative impacts these
inhibitors might have on people’s travel choices.
One of the reasons for the limited research on perceived risk and
uncertainty stems from definitional and operational inconsis-
tencies with both constructs. The constructs have often been used
interchangeably (Peter & Tarpey, 1975; Stone & Gronhaug, 1993 ),
prompting Sjoberg (1980, p. 302) to suggest perceived risk is
‘‘ambiguous and many more or less specific meanings (have been)
attributed to it.’’ According to Gronhaug and Stone (1995, p. 413),
this has resulted in ‘‘disjointed pools of research’’ that are often
difficult to reconcile.
The fragmented studies on perceived risk have made it difficult
to develop a comprehensive theoretical base for the construct (Ross,
1975), which, according to Taylor (1974, p. 54), seems ‘‘to have
worked to obscure the emerging picture of risk as the pivotal
element in consumer behavior.’’ Indeed, few attempts have been
made to specify and examine the relationships between perceived
risk and uncertainty, people’s decision to buy and related constructs,
such as self-esteem, anxiety, psychological loss, financial loss and
information search (Hugstad & Taylor, 1979; Mitchell, 1999).
To compound the issue, few researchers have examined
whether or not risk and uncertainty are distinct constructs (e.g.,
Ghosh & Ray, 1992, 1997). Untangling the confusion between the
two constructs and integrating them into an appropriate decision-
making model would be helpful in assessing their influences on
people’s travel behavior. Such a model could be applied to cross-
national settings, offering academic and practical insights into how
people from diverse cultures embrace perceived risk and uncer-
tainty when making travel decisions. The current study was
undertaken in an attempt to develop such a model.
2. Literature review
2.1. Risk and uncertainty
Interest in the risk construct began in the 1940s when Knight
(1948) suggested risk was a critical component of economic
activity. Since its inception, risk has been examined across a range
of disciplines, including geology (e.g., Burton, Kates, & White, 1978),
q
This research was supported by an Australian Research Council grant in
conjunction with Tourism Western Australia.
*
Correspondence author. Tel.: þ61 8 9266 7588; fax: þ61 8 9266 3937.
E-mail addresses: vanessa.quintal@cbs.curtin.edu.au (V.A. Quintal), julie.lee@
uwa.edu.au (J.A. Lee), geoff.soutar@uwa.edu.au (G.N. Soutar).
1
Tel.: þ61 8 6488 2912; fax: þ61 8 6488 1072.
2
Tel.: þ61 8 6488 7885; fax: þ61 8 6488 1072.
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Tourism Management
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/tourman
0261-5177/$ – see front matter Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2009.08.0 06
Tourism Management 31 (2010) 797–805
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