Advances in Transportation Studies an international Journal 2015 Special Issue, Vol. 1
- 47 -
Bus arrival time prediction
based on static and dynamic algorithms
D.W. Seng J.W. Peng J. Chen N. Zheng
School of Software Engineering, Hangzhou Dianzi University, 310018, Hangzhou, China
email: hduse@sina.com
Abstract
Arrival time forecasts can provide lots of help in improving the image of city. The public resident’s
satisfaction with public transport system, and reduce the number of private cars. In the past, bus forecasts
were based on a single static or dynamic prediction algorithm didn’t have real-time or stability. In this paper,
Support Vector Machine algorithm (SVM) are used to predict the results through historical data, and then
use Kalman filter (KF) algorithm to predict the results of dynamic correction, while combine static and
dynamic algorithms.
Keywords – bus station forecast, SVM algorithm, KF algorithm, combine static and dynamic algorithms
1. Introduction
With the rapid development of the economy, the number of vehicles in China rose sharply,
and the pollution and traffic problems in the city have become more serious. Meanwhile, some
traffic management problems are existed, lead to the serious road traffic. With the limitation of
environment and road resources, while urban transport network is a collection of complete
systems rather than a simple isolated road. By building roads can’t solve the traffic problem
fundamentally [1-3]. Every new road will have unpredictable effects on the entire network. For
the future development of sustainable path, we must be a priority to developing public transport.
As an important part of research in the field of intelligent transportation, advanced public
transport system is using traditional high-tech transformation of the public transport system to
form information, intelligent and socialization of the new modern public transport system. It is all
right with the scope of the city and its neighboring resident travel. Using a variety tools transport
system is significant for urban construction and development. However, with the advance of
science and technology information growing worse, the public transportation becomes
increasingly prominent as an effective way to solve the urban traffic problems. This will become a
guarantee of municipal traffic problems, while enhancing the overall image of the city, accord
with the path of sustainable development.
As relevant data shows: if use personal per hour per square meter as the standard measure of
access road usage, bus was 10 to 15 times the private car; Under the premise of transported same
number passengers, buses investment savings over private cars 5/6, conservation of land resources
3/4, building materials 4/5, while private cars produce10 times exhaust gas compare to bus, fuel
consumption is 2-3 times to the bus, traffic accident rate is 100 times to the bus. Thus, although
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