研究论文：基于SD-GM循环预测理论的机动车污染物收费政策效应分析1

39

9

Vol.39, No.9

2019

9

Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice Sept., 2019

doi: 10.12011/1000-6788-2018-1593-15

: TP391.9; N945

,

200093)

x

graphical function is constructed by using the approach of integrating system dynamics and grey model

theory. It has improved the prediction precision of the parameters and put forward a new method of system

dynamics modeling. Secondly, the integrity test (such as qualified verification of the degree of incidence) is

used to test the model, in order to overcome some insufficient of the local testing method. Moreover, three

kinds (including the low, medium and high policy) of schemes are simulated, and the results show that

the low policy has a “double inflection-point effect”. In addition, there is a “marginal diminishing effect”

between the medium and high policy. Finally, taking the medium policy as an example, mid-long term

dynamic simulation is carried out for the major variables (such as CO, HC, NO

.

(2018M630404);

ZZJH-047);

)

Foundation item: National Natural Science Foundation of China (71571119); China Postdoctoral Science Foundation

(2018M630404); Humanities and Social Science Research Project of Educational Department of Henan Province (2019-ZZJH-

047); Soft Science Project of the Science and Technology Department of Henan Province (192400410023)

,

[J].

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