瑞信-亚太地区-媒体行业-澳大利亚媒体行业：二月财报季预览-25-39页.pdf
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DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit
Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware
that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report
as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
5 February 2019
Asia Pacific/Australia
Equity Research
Media
Australian Media Sector
PRE RESULTS COMMENT
Research Analysts
Entcho Raykovski
61 3 9280 1716
Lachlan Brown
61 3 9280 1659
February 2019 reporting season preview
■ Key sector trends: We expect the underlying trends to be fairly subdued
for media names, heading into the February reporting season, with
(1) slowing ad revenues, particularly in the TV market, (2) lower property
listing volumes, especially in Sydney and Melbourne, (3) declines in new
car sales, although we expect the used car market to have held up and (4)
lower growth in job ads, given difficult comps.
■ Preference for NEC and CAR amongst the large caps: In light of the
underlying environment, our preference is for NEC and CAR amongst the
large caps. NEC is exposed to a weaker ad market and lower property
listings through its holding in DHG, but can benefit from the synergies on
offer from the Fairfax merger and improving audience momentum at the
start of CY19. And whilst CAR’s Display segment in particular has been
impacted by weaker new car sales, its core used market has likely fared
better, as illustrated by the company’s ability to put through a price
increase at the start of February.
■ Upgrade HT1 to OUTPERFORM: We upgrade our rating for HT1 to
OUTPERFORM (from Neutral) and even though we have reduced our
earnings estimates, we see upside from current trading levels to our
updated target price of A$1.95/share. The company is exposed to a radio
market which continues to grow and even though it has recently lost
audience share, audiences move in cycles and we see scope for it to
benefit from any recovery.
Figure 1: 1H19 results releases
Company
Results date
REA.AX
8-Feb
NWS.AX
8-Feb
CAR.AX
13-Feb
HT1.AX (FY18)
13-Feb
DHG.AX
15-Feb
SWM.AX
19-Feb
NEC.AX
21-Feb
SEK.AX
27-Feb
Source: Company data
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