JP 摩根-亚太地区-交通运输业-铁路行业（JR Cos）：财年第三季度后更新-213-55页.pdf
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www.jpmorganmarkets.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
13 February 2019
Equity Ratings and Price Targets
Mkt Cap
Rating
Price Target
Company
Ticker
(
¥
bn)
Price (
¥
)
Cur
Prev
Cur
End
Date
Prev
End
Date
East Japan Railway (9020)
9020 JT
3,881.22
10,165
N
n/c
11,400
Dec
-
19
11,200
n/c
West Japan Railway (9021)
9021 JT
1,521.95
7,907
OW
n/c
9,200
Dec
-
19
8,800
n/c
Central Japan Railway (9022)
9022 JT
4,942.97
23,995
OW
n/c
27,800
Dec
-
19
26,100
n/c
Kyushu Railway (9142)
9142 JT
573.60
3,585
N
n/c
3,900
Dec
-
19
n/c
n/c
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change.All prices as of 12 Feb 19.
Railways (JR Cos): Post
-
3Q
FY2018 Update
When Concerns Arise, Count on JR
Japan Equity Research
Transportation, Real Estate, REIT
Ryota Himeno
AC
(81-3) 6736-8639
Bloomberg JPMA RHIMENO <GO>
JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.
See page 50 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non
-
US analyst
disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aw
are that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should c
onsider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
Overall, 3Q results were unsurprising at the JR companies. Although catalysts are
scant, we still have a high preference for railways in the transportation sector, as
passenger demand remains brisk and they have considerable potential as
defensive plays in an uncertain environment marked by concerns about the impact
of the planned consumption tax hike on the domestic economy and deceleration in
the global macroeconomy. Looking at the past three months with TOPIX in a
slump, performance rankings were JR companies > air transportation > logistics
> marine transportation > TOPIX. As share prices regained ground, YTD
performance has been on a par with the TOPIX.
Earnings outlook: We would not be surprised if operating profit finished 1-3%
above guidance at each company in FY2018. Excluding Kyushu Railway (JR
Kyushu), where a profit decline is likely, we forecast modest growth in profits at
each company in FY2019. However, we see guidance risk for lower profits at
East Japan Railway (JR East) and West Japan Railway (JR West), where rising
costs are a factor, and at Central Japan Railway (JR Central), where rising costs is
a limited factor but management has always had conservative revenue forecasts.
JR Central in 1H FY2019: At JR Central, we note that (1) demand is robust on
the Tokaido Shinkansen and (2) profit visibility is clear with limited risk of
higher costs over the short term. In 2H FY2019, however, the planned
consumption tax hike could become a drag on the domestic economy, and this
may heighten awareness of downside risk at JR Central, which is the most
exposed to economic trends.
JR West in 2H FY2019: At JR West, we expect revenue to bounce back in
FY2019 after natural disasters the previous year, but maintenance and repair costs
and depreciation should also increase. We look for costs to gradually decrease
from 2020, the third year of its medium-term business plan. In the event that the
domestic economy decelerates, we think JR West will be a better defensive play
than JR Central. Although its earnings structure is not as defensive as JR East, we
anticipate support for its share price from shareholder returns and dividend yields.
JR West targets a dividend payout ratio of 35% in FY2022 and intends to flexibly
buy back its own shares in order to achieve a total return ratio of 40% during the
medium-term plan.
JR East and JR Kyushu in a similar situation: Both companies have long-
term growth stories. JR East’s story entails the redevelopment of the Shinagawa
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