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文库首页行业研究行业报告【巴克莱-2024研报】Global_Macro_Thoughts_Here_it_comes_.pdf

【巴克莱-2024研报】Global_Macro_Thoughts_Here_it_comes_.pdf

研究报告

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4 November 2024

Global Macro Thoughts

Here it comes...

Ajay Rajadhyaksha

+1 212 412 7669

ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.com

BCI, US

Max Kitson

+44 (0) 20 3555 2386

max.kitson@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Where noted in the source notes, the views expressed within this report are taken from previously published research. For further detail, including important

disclosures and analyst certifications, please follow the links on each page and on page 8.

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports

prepared for retail investors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its own account and on a discretionary basis on

behalf of certain clients. Such trading interests may be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.

Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 9.

FICC Research

Global Macro

Restricted - ExternalCompleted: 04-Nov-24, 11:55 GMT Released: 04-Nov-24, 11:59 GMT

Restricted - External

The world at a glance

• This jobs report was too muddled to draw many conclusions

• Another budget-related bond sell-off in gilts, but this is not October 2022

• Japan’s ruling coalition could survive, but any new government will be fragile

• Fears of political uncertainty post November 5th are overdone

• Making sense of it all

4 November 2024

Restricted - External

A weak but muddled US payroll report, and muddled

Japanese politics

• Two massive hurricanes and the Boeing strike weighed heavily on October payrolls

o At the margin, the report was still weaker after adjusting for these factors

o There were 112k in downward revisions in the prior 2 months, and U3 went up 9bp

• Some effects were immediately visible, such as the -47k in durable goods jobs (Boeing strike)

o Private services jobs slowed sharply, from 169k to just 9k in October

o And the rise in U3 came from permanent job losers, not temporary hurricane-related layoffs

o The response rate was very low, suggesting this payroll print could be heavily revised

o The bond market sell-off on Friday suggests investors are fading this report as well

• In sum, the Fed is unlikely to panic but will look for a sharp payroll bounce next month

o Our confidence in our forecast of 25bp cuts in both November and December has risen after today

• In Japan, there is a special Parliament session from November 11 to appoint the Prime Minister

o Despite the election results, a buildup of momentum to oust current PM Ishiba is unlikely by then

o LDP-Komeito will likely carry on as a minority government, relying on DPP/ Nippon Ishin on key votes

o This would be a fragile government though, especially heading into next summer’s upper house election

Global Economics Weekly: A spectre is haunting markets (01 November 2024)

Global Rates Weekly: Buckle up (01 November 2024)

Japan Economics Focus: Ruling coalition loses majority; monetary policy to depend on FX (28 October 2024)

4 November 2024

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