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文库首页行业研究行业报告【巴克莱-2024研报】Global_Macro_Thoughts_It_s_all_happening.pdf

【巴克莱-2024研报】Global_Macro_Thoughts_It_s_all_happening.pdf

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28 October 2024

Global Macro Thoughts

It's all happening this week

Ajay Rajadhyaksha

+1 212 412 7669

ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.com

BCI, US

Max Kitson

+44 (0) 20 3555 2386

max.kitson@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Where noted in the source notes, the views expressed within this report are taken from previously published research. For further detail, including important

disclosures and analyst certifications, please follow the links on each page and on page 8.

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports

prepared for retail investors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its own account and on a discretionary basis on

behalf of certain clients. Such trading interests may be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.

Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 9.

FICC Research

Global Macro

Restricted - ExternalCompleted: 28-Oct-24, 11:08 GMT Released: 28-Oct-24, 11:12 GMT

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The world at a glance

• Japan faces political instability as LDP coalition loses majority

• Hurricanes/ strikes could hit payrolls, but the US remains resilient

• Big Tech earnings could well set the tone for the week

• Fiscal issues are starting to dominate headlines outside the US

• Making sense of it all

28 October 2024

Restricted - External

A tricky payroll number, but all other data point to a strong US

Global Economics Weekly: It's mostly fiscal... and geopolitics (25 October 2024)

28 October 2024

• Two major hurricanes and the ongoing Boeing strike will hit US payrolls

o Initial claims for the week ending 19 October suggest limited disruptions

o Even so, we expect 50-60k in hits from all these developments combined

o Hence, we expect October payrolls to slow to 125k from 254k the prior month

• The economy overall continues to be healthy, and the GDP print should reflect that

o We expect a 3% q/q saar increase in Q3 GDP; the Atlanta Fed nowcast is at 3.3%

o We see private domestic final purchases rising 3.5% q/q saar

o Personal income/spending data should confirm that consumption is strong going into Q4

• A 25bp November cut looks like a lock, almost regardless of this week’s data

o Since the Fed cut 50bp, US data have surprised to the upside for five straight weeks

o However, no Fed speaker has even hinted that a November cut might not be likely

o With the Fed in blackout, and given the political optics, we do not see a surprise on 7 November

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