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ITF非城市客运模型(英) ITF 2021.pdf
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The ITF non-urban passenger transport model
- Insights and example outputs
The project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Programme of the EU under grant agreement
831743. The sole responsibility for the content of this document lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion
of the European Union.
Ref. Ares(2020)1038012 - 18/02/2020
The International Transport Forum
The International Transport Forum is an intergovernmental organisation with 60 member countries. It
acts as a think tank for transport policy and organises the Annual Summit of transport ministers. ITF is
the only global body that covers all transport modes. The ITF is politically autonomous and
administratively integrated with the OECD.
The ITF works for transport policies that improve peoples’ lives. Our mission is to foster a deeper
understanding of the role of transport in economic growth, environmental sustainability and social
inclusion and to raise the public profile of transport policy.
The ITF organises global dialogue for better transport. We act as a platform for discussion and pre-
negotiation of policy issues across all transport modes. We analyse trends, share knowledge and
promote exchange among transport decision-makers and civil society. The ITF’s Annual Summit is the
world’s largest gathering of transport ministers and the leading global platform for dialogue on transport
policy.
The Members of the Forum are: Albania, Armenia, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus,
Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China (People’s Republic of), Croatia, Czech
Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Ireland,
Israel, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mexico,
Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, the Netherlands, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Norway,
Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United
States.
International Transport Forum
2 rue André Pascal
F-75775 Paris Cedex 16
contact@itf-oecd.org
www.itf-oecd.org
ITF Model Paper
This paper provides insights into the ITF modelling framework that allows for projections of transport
demand, and its impacts, up to 2050. Any findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are
those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Transport Forum or the
OECD. Neither the OECD, ITF nor the authors guarantee the accuracy of any data or other information
contained in this publication and accept no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use.
This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the ITF. This document, as
well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any
territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,
city or area.
Acknowledgements
This report and the underlying work are part of the International Transport Forum’s efforts under its
Decarbonising Transport initiative. They were made possible through the “Decarbonising Transport in
Europe” (DTEU) project, funded by the European Union Horizon 2020 Programme under grant
agreement no. 831743.
The authors of this report are Dimitrios Papaioannou and Luis Martinez. The authors thank Orla
McCarthy for her support on the collection of background information regarding transport CO
2
mitigation measures, and Elisabeth Windisch for her detailed review of, and valuable comments on, a
draft version of the report. The authors also want to thank former ITF colleague Vincent Benezech who
coordinated work on aviation and helped develop a previous versions of the model. This report was
approved by Jari Kauppila.
The DTEU project is managed by Elisabeth Windisch and Luis Martinez. The project team thanks Nikolaos
Gavanas from the European Commission (DG RTD) for his continued support on this project. The team is
also thankful for the support of the participants of the expert workshop ‘Modelling International
Transport and Related CO
2
Mitigation Measures’ that was carried out at ITF/OECD in April 2019 in the
context of this project. Discussions and insights from this workshop contributed significantly to the
further development of ITF’s non-urban passenger transport model that could be carried out thanks to
the funds of the project.
This report reflects only the authors’ view. The European Commission is not responsible for a
ny use that
may be made of the information it contains.
The ITF non-urban passenger transport model
4 © OECD/ITF 2020
Table of contents
Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................. 3
Table of contents ................................................................................................................................. 4
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 5
Model overview ................................................................................................................................... 5
Model components ......................................................................................................................... 6
Model inputs .................................................................................................................................... 7
Model outputs ................................................................................................................................. 9
Insights into the model components ................................................................................................. 10
Spatial discretisation model (centroids and regions) .................................................................. 10
Global intercity transport network model ................................................................................... 10
Travel Price Model ......................................................................................................................... 11
Passenger transport activity generation model ........................................................................... 12
Destination choice model.............................................................................................................. 13
Mode choice models ..................................................................................................................... 14
Route choice model for aviation ................................................................................................... 14
CO
2
intensities and technology pathway module by mode ........................................................ 15
Transition module of input variables over time ........................................................................... 15
Accounting for CO
2
mitigation measures ........................................................................................... 17
Measures/outcomes already accounted for ................................................................................ 19
Measures/outcomes considered for future model implementation .......................................... 22
Model outputs ................................................................................................................................... 24
References ........................................................................................................................................ 29
The ITF non-urban passenger transport model
© OECD/ITF 2020 5
Introduction
This report provides insights into the ITF’s non-urban passenger transport model. It provides information
on the model set-up, the methodologies applied in the different model components, and most relevant
data inputs. The report also shows how a set of transport CO
2
mitigation measures is accounted for in
the model. The last section of the report provides illustrative examples of scenario outputs that can be
obtained from the model for Europe.
The report is part of a series of four reports that describe ITF’s transport models, covering the non-urban
passenger, urban passenger, non-urban freight, and urban freight transport sectors. The models were
updated (and partly newly developed) as part of the “Decarbonising Transport in Europe” (DTEU) project,
funded by the European Union Horizon 2020 Programme under grant agreement no. 831743. The report
is part of the deliverables for the aforementioned project.
Model overview
The ITF non-urban passenger model is a strategic tool that tests the impacts of multiple policies and
trends on the non-urban passenger sector. The model provides scenario forecasts for non-urban
transport activity and its related CO
2
emissions up to 2050. The model estimates activity between urban
areas (intercity travel) and passenger activity happening locally in non-urban areas (intra-regional travel).
The latter includes travel in peri-urban and rural areas. The model is developed to assess the impact of
transport, economic and environmental policy measures (air liberalisation, carbon pricing, etc.), as well
as the impact of technological developments and breakthroughs (electric aviation, autonomous vehicles,
etc.).
The model builds on two older ITF models, the international passenger aviation model and the domestic
non-urban passenger model. The new non-urban model combines and enhances these two models, now
accounting for all passenger activity that occurs outside of urban areas. The model structure comprises
eleven sub-models (or modules) that estimate the non-urban passenger transport activity and its effects
on the environment in various steps. The model is entirely developed by the ITF and does not rely on any
commercial transport modelling software.
The combined non-urban passenger model was initially created for the 2019 ITF Transport Outlook (ITF,
2019). The most recent model updates that could be carried out thanks to the European Commission’s
Horizon 2020 funding for the DTEU project were:
Verification and validation of model inputs and outputs for Europe for the base year 2015.
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