【数学建模】模拟计划生育政策调整对人口数量、结构及其影响的研究含Matlab源码.zip

function pre_popilation() clear all close all clc %根据人口、年龄、性别、生育策略等估计未来人口数模型。 r1=15; %生育起始年龄 r2=45; %生育终止年龄 n=2; %晚育年龄 st=2; %生育模型参数1 rf=n/2; %生育模型参数2 r=r1:r2; %生育年龄 h=(r-r1).^(rf-1).*exp(-(r-r1)/st)/st^rf/gamma(rf); %生育模式 bt=1.22 %设妇女生育数为常数，即妇女在生育年龄生育概率为常数，且生育总数为常数 k=0.5; %设女性比例为常数0.5 %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% fil='人口年龄分布.xls'; p0=xlsread(fil,'b2:b102'); p0=p0*(1267430000/sum(p0)); fil='各年龄死亡人口数.xls'; u=xlsread(fil,'e3:e103'); pn=p0; %为第n年的人口分布设置初始分布 px=pn; %为第n+1年估计分配初值 year=input('要预测的年份'); year=year-2000; for num=1:year t=pn(r1:r2); f=bt*sum(k*h.*t');%一年期新生儿数量。 px(1)=f; for n=1:length(pn)-1 px(n+1)=pn(n)*(1-u(n)*0.001); end stem(num,sum(px)); hold on pn=px; end P_sum=sum(pn) P0_sum=sum(p0) figure plot(pn); hold on plot(p0,'k-.'); grid off title('各年龄段的人口分布图'); xlabel('年龄/岁'),ylabel('人口数/人'); %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% bt=2.5 %更新另一个bt %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% for num=1:year t=pn(r1:r2); f=bt*sum(k*h.*t');%一年期新生儿数量。 px(1)=f; for n=1:length(pn)-1 px(n+1)=pn(n)*(1-u(n)*0.001); end pn=px; end P_sum2=sum(pn) %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%