瑞信-中国-教育行业-中国K12教育：模拟在线教育对线下监管的影响和潜力-2019.4.2-33页.pdf资源-CSDN文库

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根据给定文件的信息，我们可以提炼出以下几个关键知识点： ### 一、报告背景及目的 - **报告名称**：“瑞信-中国-教育行业-中国K12教育：模拟在线教育对线下监管的影响和潜力” - **发布日期**：2019年4月2日 - **研究范围**：亚洲太平洋地区/中国教育服务行业 - **研究对象**：中国K12辅导市场 - **主要研究公司**：新东方（EDU）、好未来（TAL）报告旨在探讨在线教育对中国K12辅导市场线下业务监管的影响及其潜力。 ### 二、线下业务现状与展望 #### 1. 线下业务韧性尽管政策收紧导致了新东方（EDU）和好未来（TAL）线下业务的扩张速度放缓，并增加了额外成本，但报告认为这两家公司的线下业务依然具有韧性。预计在减缓线下扩张的情况下，随着利用率的提高，两家公司在2020-2021财年的毛利率将有所提升。 #### 2. 市场份额增长报告预测，在政策收紧之后，新东方和好未来在中国K12辅导市场的市场份额将会增加。具体而言，预计两家公司在2019年的市场份额将达到8.3%，并在2020年进一步增长至10.6%。 ### 三、在线教育的增长机会 #### 1. 在线渗透率提升随着科技驱动创新以及高质量教育需求的增长，报告预计中国K12辅导市场的在线渗透率将从2018年的7%上升到2021年的16%。 #### 2. 新东方与好未来的机遇报告认为，新东方和好未来均处于有利位置，能够抓住在线教育的增长机会。尤其是新东方，因其更清晰的线下扩张计划而受到偏好。 ### 四、政策风险评估报告指出，市场可能对短期内的政策风险进行了过度估计，并低估了新东方和好未来通过在线教育实现增长的能力。 ### 五、结论与建议 - 报告强调了中国K12教育行业的两个主要发展趋势：一是线下业务虽然面临政策挑战但仍保持韧性；二是在线教育的增长势头强劲。 - 对于投资者而言，考虑到在线教育的增长潜力及两家公司在该领域的竞争优势，新东方和好未来都是值得关注的投资标的。 - 尽管存在政策风险，但从长期来看，这些风险可能会被在线教育的发展所抵消，为投资者带来回报。该报告深入分析了在线教育对线下业务的影响及其潜在增长空间，对于了解中国K12教育市场趋势具有重要参考价值。

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DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST

CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit

Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware

that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report

as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 April 2019

Asia Pacific/China

Equity Research

Education Services

China K12 Tutoring Sector

SECTOR FORECAST

Research Analysts

Thomas Chong

852 2101 6164

thomas.chong@credit-suisse.com

Alex Xie

852 2101 7462

alex.xie@credit-suisse.com

Modeling offline regulation impact and

potential from online education

Figure 1: We expect EDU and TAL to take more market shares post

regulation with resilient offline and fast-growing online

1.6%

2.1%

2.8%

3.5%

4.3%

1.8%

2.7%

3.7%

4.8%

6.3%

2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E

EDU TAL

Source: Credit Suisse research

■ Offline business is still resilient. Though regulation tightening caused

slowdown in capacity expansion and additional costs to EDU and TAL’s

offline business, we believe the offline business of EDU and TAL is still

resilient. We expect higher GPM in FY20-21 as utilisation rate rises under

slower offline expansion. Consolidation continues post regulation. We

expect EDU and TAL’s combined market shares in China’s K12 tutoring

market to increase from 6.5% in 2018 to 8.3% in 2019 and 10.6% in 2020.

■ Secular growth opportunity from online. Riding on the trend of

technology-driven innovation and strong demand for quality education, we

expect the online penetration rate of K12 tutoring market to rise from 7% in

2018 to 16% in 2021. We believe TAL and EDU are well-positioned to

capture secular growth opportunity from online.

■ Prefer EDU to TAL on clearer offline expansion plan. We believe the

market has overestimated policy risk in the near term and underestimated

the potential of online education in the long run. We like EDU’s clear plan to

expand offline capacity and strengthen online capability on undemanding

valuation. We also believe TAL should be able to reaccelerate its offline

expansion with the dual teacher model. We roll over our P/E based

valuation for profitable offline business from FY19 to FY20 and increase

our SOTP-based TP for EDU and TAL to US$112.7 (from US$88.4) and

US$44.3 (from US$36.6), respectively. Key risks: (1) adverse regulatory

policies; and (2) failure in online product improvement.

2 April 2019

China K12 Tutoring Sector 2

Focus charts and table

Figure 2: We expect slower offline capacity

expansion post regulation tightening

Figure 3: We expect TAL to take much more market

shares in online than in offline

40%

22% 22%

24%

30%

14%

20%

25%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

EDU TAL

0.2%

0.3%

0.5%

0.8%

1.4%

1.9%

3.2%

6.3%

9.8%

13.2%

10%

12%

14%

2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E

EDU TAL

Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates

Source: Credit Suisse estimates

Figure 4: Xueersi.com revenue contribution to TAL

is rising rapidly

Figure 5: We expect EDU’s offline K12 revenue

growth rate to exceed TAL’s Peiyou in FY20

119

331

717

1,345

13%

20%

27%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Xueersi.com's revenue as % of TAL's revenue

US$ mn

32%

36%

46%

40%

35%

47%

58%

57%

38%

29%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

EDU's K12 tutoring TAL's Peiyou

Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates

Figure 6: Peers comps table

Last Target Potential Mkt cap

Company Ticker Ccy price Price upside (USD mn) 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020

China education peers

US listed China K12 tutoring

New Oriental EDU.N USD 89.04 112.7 27% 14,130 36.8 28.9 21.6 5.9 5.0 4.1 5.0 3.9 3.0

TAL TAL.N USD 36.03 44.3 23% 20,439 58.4 44.9 32.2 11.2 9.1 7.1 9.2 6.6 4.7

RISE Education REDU.OQ USD 9.87 596 23.0 19.3 14.9 7.9 5.6 4.0 3.0 2.4 2.0

OneSmart* ONE.N USD 8.10 1,320 18.0 13.4 8.0 6.3 4.5 2.0 1.5

Average 39.4x 27.8x 20.5x 8.3x 6.5x 4.9x 5.7x 3.7x 2.8x

US listed K12 school operator

RYB Education RYB.N USD 6.54 191 39.2 28.6 15.5 5.0 5.1 4.5 1.3 1.0 0.8

Bright Scholar* BEDU.N USD 10.40 1,289 26.9 20.8 17.5 3.0 2.7 2.4 3.5 2.9

Average 33.0x 24.7x 16.5x 4.0x 3.9x 3.4x 1.3x 2.2x 1.8x

Global education peers

US K12 education

Bright Horizons* BFAM.N USD 125.75 7,287 39.2 34.9 30.8 9.3 6.2 4.8 3.8 3.5 3.3

K12 Inc* LRN.N USD 34.18 1,375 46.4 41.2 37.0 1.4 1.3 1.2

Average 42.8x 38.1x 33.9x 9.3x 6.2x 4.8x 2.6x 2.4x 2.3x

Note: Close price as of 1 April-2019. Source: Reuters for companies marked with *, Credit Suisse estimates for the rest.

2 April 2019

China K12 Tutoring Sector 3

Modelling offline regulation impact and

potential from online education

Resilient offline: Adapt to regulation in 2018;

consolidation trend to continue

Though regulation tightening caused slowdown in capacity expansion and additional costs

to EDU and TAL’s offline business, we believe the offline business of EDU and TAL is still

resilient. We expect higher GPM in FY20-21 as a result of slower offline expansion as

utilisation rate rises to offset cost pressure from regulation. We view strong demand for

quality tutoring and market consolidation could continue post regulation. We expect EDU

and TAL’s combined market shares in China’s K12 tutoring market to increase from 6.5%

in 2018 to 8.3% in 2019 and 10.6% in 2020.

Enhanced online models to expand the boundary of

leading players

Riding on the trend of technology-driven innovation and strong demand for access to

quality education resources, we expect the online penetration rate of K12 tutoring market

to rise from 7% in 2018 to 16% in 2021. We view data-driven operation optimisation and

advanced technologies as the two key drivers to improve the performance of online K12

tutoring. We expect the user experience of dual teacher model in the offline learning

centres to reach the current level of face-to-face classes in 2019-20. We expect pure

online models to reach such level in 2022. We believe online education models should

evolve much faster than offline education. Leading players have been exploring various

online education models to cater to market demand and accelerate their expansion. The

market is large enough for multiple models to find suitable customers.

Investment in online creates value in the long term

As leading players of online K12 tutoring have made significant progress in terms of user

experience and study efficiency in 2018, we believe the industry is going to soar and

deliver secular growth with higher penetration. We believe industry leaders (TAL and EDU)

with deep moats in national brand, advanced technologies, teaching talent pool, and

operational expertise are best positioned to capture growth opportunities in online tutoring.

TAL is leading the trend in online. We expect pure online education revenue of TAL to

contribution of Xueersi.com to TAL is expected to exceed 13% in FY19 and 20% in FY20.

EDU is strengthening its online capability with its differentiated small class model. For

Koolearn of EDU, we expect revenue from K12 to register 138% CAGR for FY18-20 and

reach US$74 mn in FY20. The contribution of K12 in Koolearn is expected to rise from

13% in FY18 to 19% in FY19 and 29% in FY20.

Prefer EDU to TAL on clearer offline expansion plan

We believe the market has overestimated policy risk in the near term and underestimated

online education’s potential in the long run. We like EDU’s clear plan to expand offline

capacity and strengthen online capability under undemanding valuation. We also believe

TAL should be able to reaccelerate its offline expansion with dual teacher model. We

prefer EDU to TAL on its undemanding valuation and clearer offline capacity expansion

plan to take more market shares post regulation tightening. We roll over our P/E based

valuation for profitable offline business from FY19 to FY20 and increase our SOTP-based

TP for EDU and TAL to US$112.7 (from US$88.4) and US$44.3 (from US$36.6),

respectively. Key risks in the K12 tutoring industry include: (1) adverse regulatory

policies; and (2) failure in online product improvement.

We expect EDU and

TAL’s total market

shares in China’s K12

tutoring market to

increase from 6.5% in

2018 to 10.6% in 2020

We expect the online

penetration rate of K12

tutoring market to rise

from 7% in 2018 to 16%

in 2021

We believe TAL and

EDU are well-

positioned to capture

secular growth

opportunities in online

We prefer EDU to TAL

on clearer offline

capacity expansion

plan

2 April 2019

China K12 Tutoring Sector 4

Resilient offline: Adapt to regulation in 2018;

consolidation trend to continue

Key changes post regulation tightening

The Ministry of Education issued a number of policies to regulate the after-school tutoring

market in 2018. By 30 December 2018, the government checked a total of 401,050 after-

school tutoring institutions and found 272,842 (68% of total) institutions with compliance

issues. Government has rectified 269,911 tutoring institutions in 2018, which account for

98.93% of institutions with compliance issues.

Licensing approval: We estimate over 20% of tutoring institutions were

shut down by government, we also estimate slower learning center

expansion

The key policy in the regulation is that all learning centres of tutoring institutions must

obtain both a business operation license from commerce authorities and an education

license from education authorities. A license cannot cover the whole region and each new

learning centre branch should obtain a new license. Most of the small-sized tutoring

institutions did not have respective licenses before the nationwide regulation inspection

and the government only issued new education licenses to institutions that meet the

standards in learning centre conditions and teaching (for example, no incumbent public

school teachers). We estimate over 20% of tutoring institutions were shut down in 2018.

Though some of small tutoring providers changed their format and continue their

operations covertly, we expect continuous government inspection on these institutions. We

expect consolidation in the after-school tutoring market to accelerate with strong demand

of parents and students and less local tutoring institutions.

For EDU and TAL, though both companies were able to modify their learning centres and

obtain related licenses, we expect slower learning centre expansion as a result of

regulation because: (1) the regulatory environment is not as favourable for high growth

rate as before, companies need time to accommodate to regulatory changes; (2) the

companies can focus more on education quality during the transition period.

Figure 7: Regional data points of tutoring institution shutdown

The number of tutoring

institutions that were shut down

Total number of tutoring

institutions checked

% of shutdown

Jiangsu

12,008

17,167

70%

Tianjin

4,125

5,675

73%

Henan

4,904

24,924

20%

Guangzhou

575

2,263

25%

Guiyang

470

2,657

18%

Source: Ministry of Education, Sina News

Higher learning centre requirements led to change in learning centre

space and additional rental cost

The policy required all learning centres to have at least three square meters area per

student enrollment and obtain all fire safety and health related approvals. Learning centres

for junior kids under 14 years must not be located above the third floor. Both EDU and TAL

have incurred additional rental costs to comply with these requirements and have even

changed locations of some learning centres.

We expect requirement of standard teaching qualification to increase

cost in training existing teachers and hiring new licensed teachers

Before the regulation, about 50% of teachers of EDU and TAL had official teaching

qualification, this was since the government had not specified such requirements for

We estimate over 20%

of tutoring institutions

were shut down by the

government

更多资料，欢迎访问 www.wenku120.com

2 April 2019

China K12 Tutoring Sector 5

tutoring institutions. The new policy requires all tutoring class teachers to obtain teaching

qualification through passing licensing exams. All main teachers were required to

participate in the written test in Nov-2018 and interview in Jan-2019. Both companies

provide training and study time for teachers to help them pass the exam. We estimate

overall passing rate for teachers of both companies to be 70-80%, which is much higher

than the industry average of 30%, since EDU and TAL recruit high-quality teaching staff

from Tier 1 universities in China. We also expect the government to allow more grace

period to those who failed in this round of teaching qualification licensing exam. For new

teacher recruitment, EDU requires teaching qualification and its compensation is one of

the best in the industry. EDU plans to solve the issue of teaching qualification by the end

of FY19.

Payment schedule change had one-off impact on deferred revenue

Regulation bans collection of tuition fee for over a three-month period. Both EDU and TAL

have already changed their tuition fee payment schedule and divided the original spring

class to two terms of payment. As a result of such adjustment, deferred revenue growth for

the coming year may not reflect new student enrollment and gross billings as before. For

example, TAL’s deferred revenue as of 30 November 2018 decreased by 19% YoY,

mainly due to schedule change of tuition fee payment.

Content change does not weaken demand significantly

Regulation bans teaching ahead-of-standard content and advanced competition content in

after-school tutoring. Though TAL changed its math teaching materials significantly in the

summer of 2018 to comply with the standard, its retention rate was stable and only a few

top students left for more advanced content. We believe the good result of content change

is due to: (1) most students still need tutoring in normal test rather than advanced math

competition to get ahead of peers; and (2) TAL has great content development capability

to help student gain academic skills with standard content.

Modelling impacts of regulation: Significant

slowdown in growth, but margins to hold up

We expect capacity expansion of EDU in terms of total square meters of classroom space

to slow from 40% in FY18 to 22% in FY19 and FY20, before accelerating to 24% in FY21.

We also assume rental cost per square meter to increase by 10% YoY (vs 5% in usual) in

FY19 due to higher regulatory requirements for learning centres. We assume the teaching

staff cost per headcount to increase by 10% in FY20 (vs the usual 7%). But efficiency in

teaching staff could improve with a higher utilisation rate of teachers’ capacity.

As a result of the above, we expect offline revenue growth to slow from 35% in FY18 to 27%

in FY19-21. We estimate rental cost as % of revenue to increase from 13.1% in FY18 to

13.7% in FY20. We expect teaching fees as % of revenue to decrease from 25.0% in

FY18 to 24.6% in FY20. Offline GPM is expected to decrease from 56.3% in FY18 to 56.1%

in FY19, but recover to 56.4% in FY20. Overall GPM is expected to decrease from 56.5%

in FY18 to 56.1% in FY19, but recover to 56.6% in FY20.

EDU plans to solve the

teaching licensing

qualification issue by

end- FY19

We expect significant

slowdown in offline

expansion but margins

to hold up

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