基于 RBF人工神经网络的电力系统短期负荷预测研究

%编制人：adwjt %编制时间：2022.5.22 %% 初始化 %表格数据读取 tic clear all; close all; clc; format long; load_count=365; dian_count=96; load0=xlsread('zibo08.xls'); load=load0([1:load_count],[2:(dian_count+1)]);%因为quan.xls第一列增加了序号列 waiyin=load0([1:load_count],[(dian_count+2):(dian_count+5)]);%将外界因素存入矩阵waiyin %% %ad模型、ad_true模型 ad1=zeros(1,load_count*dian_count); suiji=zeros(1,load_count*dian_count);%随机成分建模 i=0; while i<load_count*dian_count t_int=round(rand(1,1)*240+48);%数据组1的ad时间间隔t_int在[12,72]h,即[48,288] i=i+t_int;%新的ad输入起点 if(i>=load_count*dian_count) break; end %随机赋予v_ad正负号 a=normrnd(0,1);%0附近标准偏差是1 sign=a/abs(a); v_ad=rand(1,1)*500+300;%ad幅值[300,800]kw v_ad=v_ad*sign; t_dur=round(rand(1,1)*12+4);%ad持续时间[1,4]h,即[4,16] if((i+t_dur-1)>=load_count*dian_count) break; end ad1(i:(i+t_dur-1))=v_ad; b=zeros(1,t_dur); suiji(1,i:(i+t_dur-1))=normrnd(b,5);%标准差是5，即方差为25 %能量反馈部分 v_ad_fan=-0.3*v_ad;%方向相反 t_dur_fan=round(0.5*t_dur); if((i+t_dur+t_dur_fan-1)>=load_count*dian_count) break; end ad1((i+t_dur):(i+t_dur+t_dur_fan-1))=v_ad_fan; c=zeros(1,t_dur_fan); suiji((i+t_dur):(i+t_dur+t_dur_fan-1))=normrnd(c,5);%标准差是5，即方差为25 end figure(1) plot(ad1(1:(28*96)))%【图1】ad图像 axis([0 28*96 -1000 1000]); ad=reshape(ad1,dian_count,load_count);%reshape函数是按列排序 ad=ad';%ad模型建立完成 suiji=reshape(suiji,dian_count,load_count); suiji=suiji';%随机成分模型建立完成 ad_true=ad+suiji;%ad_true模型建立完成 ad_true0=ad_true;%保留ad_true的数值在ad_true0中 load=load+ad_true;%带ad产品负荷完成 %% %对全体数据进行归一化处理 load_max=max(max(load)); load_min=min(min(load)); load=(load-load_min)./(load_max-load_min); %外因处理 waiyin=mapminmax(waiyin',0.1,0.9); waiyin=waiyin'; ad_true=(ad_true-load_min)./(load_max-load_min);%有DR模型 %ad_true(:,:)=0;%无DR模型 %% %训练样本处理 %选择训练起始天d_start，终止天d_end d_start=108;d_end=117;%修改参数1 p_train=zeros(96*(d_end-d_start+1),34);%【改】输入元素数,每次训练数据占一行，每行有8个数据：a1,a2,a3,b1,b2,b3,c0,c1 t_train=zeros(96*(d_end-d_start+1),1); k=0;%k是训练样本数 for i=d_start:1:d_end for j=1:1:96 k=k+1; if j==1 p_train(k,:)=[load(i-1,96),load(i,j),load(i,j+1),load(i,96),load(i+1,j),load(i+1,j+1),load(i+1,96),load(i+2,j),load(i+2,j+1),waiyin(i,1),waiyin(i,2),waiyin(i,3),waiyin(i,4),waiyin(i+1,1),waiyin(i+1,2),waiyin(i+1,3),waiyin(i+1,4),waiyin(i+2,1),waiyin(i+2,2),waiyin(i+2,3),waiyin(i+2,4),waiyin(i+3,1),waiyin(i+3,2),waiyin(i+3,3),waiyin(i+3,4),ad_true(i,95),ad_true(i,96),ad_true(i+1,j),ad_true(i+1,95),ad_true(i+1,96),ad_true(i+2,j),ad_true(i+2,95),ad_true(i+2,96),ad_true(i+3,j)]; elseif j==2 p_train(k,:)=[load(i,j-1),load(i,j),load(i,j+1),load(i+1,j-1),load(i+1,j),load(i+1,j+1),load(i+2,j-1),load(i+2,j),load(i+2,j+1),waiyin(i,1),waiyin(i,2),waiyin(i,3),waiyin(i,4),waiyin(i+1,1),waiyin(i+1,2),waiyin(i+1,3),waiyin(i+1,4),waiyin(i+2,1),waiyin(i+2,2),waiyin(i+2,3),waiyin(i+2,4),waiyin(i+3,1),waiyin(i+3,2),waiyin(i+3,3),waiyin(i+3,4),ad_true(i,96),ad_true(i+1,j-1),ad_true(i+1,j),ad_true(i+1,96),ad_true(i+2,j-1),ad_true(i+2,j),ad_true(i+2,96),ad_true(i+3,j-1),ad_true(i+3,j)]; elseif j==96 p_train(k,:)=[load(i,j-1),load(i,j),load(i+1,1),load(i+1,j-1),load(i+1,j),load(i+2,1),load(i+2,j-1),load(i+2,j),load(i+3,1),waiyin(i,1),waiyin(i,2),waiyin(i,3),waiyin(i,4),waiyin(i+1,1),waiyin(i+1,2),waiyin(i+1,3),waiyin(i+1,4),waiyin(i+2,1),waiyin(i+2,2),waiyin(i+2,3),waiyin(i+2,4),waiyin(i+3,1),waiyin(i+3,2),waiyin(i+3,3),waiyin(i+3,4),ad_true(i+1,j-2),ad_true(i+1,j-1),ad_true(i+1,j),ad_true(i+2,j-2),ad_true(i+2,j-1),ad_true(i+2,j),ad_true(i+3,j-2),ad_true(i+3,j-1),ad_true(i+3,j)]; else p_train(k,:)=[load(i,j-1),load(i,j),load(i,j+1),load(i+1,j-1),load(i+1,j),load(i+1,j+1),load(i+2,j-1),load(i+2,j),load(i+2,j+1),waiyin(i,1),waiyin(i,2),waiyin(i,3),waiyin(i,4),waiyin(i+1,1),waiyin(i+1,2),waiyin(i+1,3),waiyin(i+1,4),waiyin(i+2,1),waiyin(i+2,2),waiyin(i+2,3),waiyin(i+2,4),waiyin(i+3,1),waiyin(i+3,2),waiyin(i+3,3),waiyin(i+3,4),ad_true(i+1,j-2),ad_true(i+1,j-1),ad_true(i+1,j),ad_true(i+2,j-2),ad_true(i+2,j-1),ad_true(i+2,j),ad_true(i+3,j-2),ad_true(i+3,j-1),ad_true(i+3,j)]; end t_train(k)=load(i+3,j); end end k p_train=p_train'; t_train=t_train'; %预测处理,同时处理预测天的全天真实负荷值real_d %要预测第d_test天，第h_test个负荷点 p_test=zeros(96,34);%【改】输入元素数 t_test=zeros(96,1); k1=0;%k是预测负荷点的数量，此处取一天中94点（去首尾） d_test=121;%要比d_end大4 for j1=1:1:96 k1=k1+1; if j1==1 p_test(k1,:)=[load(d_test-4,96),load(d_test-3,j1),load(d_test-3,j1+1),load(d_test-3,96),load(d_test-2,j1),load(d_test-2,j1+1),load(d_test-2,96),load(d_test-1,j1),load(d_test-1,j1+1),waiyin(d_test-3,1),waiyin(d_test-3,2),waiyin(d_test-3,3),waiyin(d_test-3,4),waiyin(d_test-2,1),waiyin(d_test-2,2),waiyin(d_test-2,3),waiyin(d_test-2,4),waiyin(d_test-1,1),waiyin(d_test-1,2),waiyin(d_test-1,3),waiyin(d_test-1,4),waiyin(d_test,1),waiyin(d_test,2),waiyin(d_test,3),waiyin(d_test,4),ad_true(d_test-3,95),ad_true(d_test-3,96),ad_true(d_test-2,j1),ad_true(d_test-2,95),ad_true(d_test-2,96),ad_true(d_test-1,j1),ad_true(d_test-1,95),ad_true(d_test-1,96),ad_true(d_test,j1)]; elseif j1==2 p_test(k1,:)=[load(d_test-3,j1-1),load(d_test-3,j1),load(d_test-3,j1+1),load(d_test-2,j1-1),load(d_test-2,j1),load(d_test-2,j1+1),load(d_test-1,j1-1),load(d_test-1,j1),load(d_test-1,j1+1),waiyin(d_test-3,1),waiyin(d_test-3,2),waiyin(d_test-3,3),waiyin(d_test-3,4),waiyin(d_test-2,1),waiyin(d_test-2,2),waiyin(d_test-2,3),waiyin(d_test-2,4),waiyin(d_test-1,1),waiyin(d_test-1,2),waiyin(d_test-1,3),waiyin(d_test-1,4),waiyin(d_test,1),waiyin(d_test,2),waiyin(d_test,3),waiyin(d_test,4),ad_true(d_test-3,96),ad_true(d_test-2,j1-1),ad_true(d_test-2,j1),ad_true(d_test-2,96),ad_true(d_test-1,j1-1),ad_true(d_test-1,j1),ad_true(d_test-1,96),ad_true(d_test,j1-1),ad_true(d_test,j1)]; elseif j1==96 p_test(k1,:)=[load(d_test-3,j1-1),load(d_test-3,j1),load(d_test-2,1),load(d_test-2,j1-1),load(d_test-2,j1),load(d_test-1,1),load(d_test-1,j1-1),load(d_test-1,j1),load(d_test,1),waiyin(d_test-3,1),waiyin(d_test-3,2),waiyin(d_test-3,3),waiyin(d_test-3,4),waiyin(d_test-2,1),waiyin(d_test-2,2),waiyin(d_test-2,3),waiyin(d_test-2,4),waiyin(d_test-1,1),waiyin(d_test-1,2),waiyin(d_test-1,3),waiyin(d_test-1,4),waiyin(d_test,1),waiyin(d_test,2),waiyin(d_test,3),waiyin(d_test,4),ad_true(d_test-2,j1-2),ad_true(d_test-2,j1-1),ad_true(d_test-2,j1),ad_true(d_test-1,j1-2),ad_true(d_test-1,j1-1),ad_true(d_test-1,j1),ad_true(d_test,j1-2),ad_true(d_test,j1-1),ad_true(d_test,j1)]; else p_test(k1,:)=[load(d_test-3,j1-1),load(d_test-3,j1),load(d_test-3,j1+1),load(d_test-2,j1-1),load(d_test-2,j1),load(d_test-2,j1+1),load(d_test-1,j1-1),load(d_test-1,j1),load(d_test-1,j1+1),waiyin(d_test-3,1),waiyin(d_test-3,2),waiyin(d_test-3,3),waiyin(d_test-3,4),waiyin(d_test-2,1),waiyin(d_test-2,2),waiyin(d_test-2,3),waiyin(d_test-2,4),waiyin(d_test-1,1),waiyin(d_test-1,2),waiyin(d_test-1,3),waiyin(d_test-1,4),waiyin(d_test,1),waiyin(d_test,2),waiyin(d_test,3),waiyin(d_test,4),ad_true(d_test-2,j1-2),ad_true(d_test-2,j1-1),ad_true(d_test-2,j1),ad_true(d_test-1,j1-2),ad_true(d_test-1,j1-1),ad_true(d_test-1,j1),ad_true(d_test,j