麦格理-美股-消费品行业-消费之王：堡垒坚固-318-23页.pdf
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18 March 2019 North America/United States/Canada
Sales and Trading personnel at Macquarie are not independent and, therefore, the information herein may be subject to certain conflicts of
interest, and may have been shared with other parties prior to publication. Note: To the extent Macquarie Research is referenced, it is
identified as such and the associated disclaimers are included in the published research report. Please refer to the important disclosures
www.macquarie.com/salesandtradingdisclaimer.
ECONOMICS
Source: Federal Reserve, Macquarie Macro Strategy, March 2019
Source: Federal Reserve, Macquarie Macro Strategy, March 2019
Source: BLS, Bloomberg, Macquarie Macro Strategy, November 2018
Economists
Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd.
David Doyle, CFA +1 416 848 3663
david.doyle@macquarie.com
Neil Shankar +1 416 607 5055
neil.shankar@macquarie.com
Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited
Ric Deverell +61 2 8232 4307
ric.deverell@macquarie.com
This publication has been prepared by Sales and Trading personnel at Macquarie
and is not a product of the Macquarie Research Department.
King Consumer
The Fortress stands strong
Powerful fundamentals underpin the US Consumer
As the economic expansion approaches ten years, its engine, the US consumer,
appears as resilient as ever. Spending has risen over $600 billion over the past
four quarters and ~$4.4 trillion over the past decade.
Consumer confidence is strong and unemployment is near multi-decade lows and
likely to fall further. While recent spending data have shown some softness, we
do not believe this is representative of consumer health. Real income growth is
robust supported by favourable trends in jobs growth and real wage growth.
These anchor our consumer outlook and view of still solid growth in the US.
2019 is likely to be a banner year for real wage growth. Nominal wages are
pushing higher even as inflation stays contained. Strength in real wage growth is
not a recent phenomenon. Despite what some naysayers may suggest, the past
ten years have been amongst the strongest in history.
Real wage growth has not been confined to those with higher incomes. Recently,
wage gains have been strongest in the lowest paying sub-industries. Moreover,
real median household income, after trending sideways for nearly three decades
(through 2014), has risen ~13% over the past 4 years.
The US consumer has deleveraged and is as resilient as ever
Deleveraging has put the consumer in a favourable position. There are few signs
of froth or concern – delinquencies and bankruptcies remain low. Several factors
suggest the consumer is well positioned to withstand potential shocks.
1) Household debt service low. As a share of disposable income it has never
been lower, suggesting ample capacity to absorb higher interest rates.
2) Gasoline expense low. As a share of disposable income, this stands at just
~2.2%, near the lowest level in 70 years and suggesting the consumer is well
positioned to absorb any potential increases in energy prices.
3) Secular rise in services reduces spending volatility. Spending on services
comprises ~70% of total personal consumption and has been rising. As it is
less volatile than goods spending, its rising share adds to resiliency.
4) Retirements and an aging population. As the share of population over 65
rises so has the share of income generated from sources such as defined
benefit pension plans and social security. These are more stable than
employment income, providing an added source of consumption stability.
5) Low labor force growth. Due to retirements, this should be much lower than
in prior decades. The result should be that only ~70K jobs per month will be
needed to prevent the unemployment rate from rising, suggesting the labor
market can withstand slowing jobs growth.
Key themes likely to impact consumption trends ahead
Consumption patterns are shifting. The fastest growth categories over the past
year are concentrated in services and include spectator sports, air transportation,
and internet access. Categories in decline are skewed more towards goods.
We analyze three key themes likely to impact spending patterns ahead: e-
commerce, the wealth effect, and financial pressures on the millennial generation.
52,000
54,000
56,000
58,000
60,000
62,000
64,000
66,000
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Real median HH income (2018 $s)
2018
est.
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2005 2009 2013 2017
US HH debt service payments as a % of disposable personal income
3Q18 level = 9.8%
69.0%
31.0%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017
Share of personal consumption expenditures
services
goods
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