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Global Credit Outlook 2023:
No Easy Way Out
Dec. 1, 2022
This report does not constitute a rating action
Global Credit Outlook 2023: No Easy Way Out
spglobal.com/ratings/CreditOutlook2023
Dec. 1, 2022
2
Foreword
Dear reader,
S&P Global Ratings’ Global Credit Outlook 2023 presents our macroeconomic and credit outlooks
for the year ahead, including our base-case forecasts, assumptions, and key risks for what
promises to be another challenging period for the global economy and markets.
This year’s theme, No Easy Way Out, looks in detail at the shocks reverberating across
economies and markets, and why finding a way through the strains weighing on credit leaves little
room for error. Because governments, having piled on debt during the pandemic, largely lack the
fiscal capacity to spend their way through this turn in the credit cycle, we expect credit pressures
to intensify in the near term. And while we could see a stabilization of financing conditions in the
latter half of the year, uncertainties remain high, with a focal point being the Russia-Ukraine war
and its implications for energy markets.
This report harnesses the power of our regional and global Credit Conditions Committees (CCC),
who meet quarterly to review conditions in Asia-Pacific, North America, and Europe as well as the
Emerging Markets and globally. These committees define the house base case underpinning our
credit ratings, in addition to identifying the key macro credit risks and their potential rating
impact in various asset classes. This publication also highlights the deep resources of the
broader teams of S&P Global Ratings analysts and the Credit Research & Insights group, as well
as their wealth of data and expertise in covering credit markets.
Our Top Global Risks detail what could affect our baseline expectations, assessing the risk levels
and forward-looking trends in a number of areas. They include the risks that:
• Tight and volatile financing conditions persist on the back of entrenched inflation, increasingly
straining the debt-service capacity of more vulnerable borrowers;
• A deeper and longer recession than expected in the largest economies further dampens global
growth;
• Persistent input-cost inflation and high energy prices, combined with weakening demand,
squeeze corporate profits and weigh on governments' fiscal balances; and
• Geopolitical tensions intensify, roiling markets and eroding business conditions.
In parallel, we see increased structural pressure on credit from the physical and transition risks
associated with climate change and the energy transition.
Aligned with these risks, we answer the pressing Questions That Matter for 2023, collected
through our interactions with investors and other market participants.
Alexandra Dimitrijevic
Gl
obal Head of Analytical
Research and Development
Co
-Chair, Global CCC
London
alexandra.dimitrijevic@spglobal.com
Gregg Lemos-Stein
Chief Analytical Officer,
Corporate Ratings
Co
-Chair, Global CCC
New York
gregg.lemos
-stein@spglobal.com
Acknowledgements
We
would like to thank the many
colleagues who have contributed
to this report to provide you with
S&P Global Ratings' essential
insights.
Special thanks to
Ruth Yang,
Molly Mintz, Joe Maguire,
Yucheng Zheng,
Bernadette
Stroeder,
Tom Lowenstein,
Jennie Brookman, Rose
Burke,
Alison Dunn,
Cathy Holcombe,
and
Alex Ilushik.
Global Credit Outlook 2023: No Easy Way Out
spglobal.com/ratings/CreditOutlook2023
Dec. 1, 2022
3
Contents
Global Credit Outlook 2023: No Easy Way Out
4
Global Economic Outlook 2023: Surprising Resilience Unlikely To Last
1
3
Top Global Risks
20
Questions That Matter
Looking Forward: After inflation, what's next?
2
1
Emerging Markets: Is a strong dollar a concern?
2
4
Private Credit: How long can private credit remain the safety valve of liquidity?
2
6
Central Banks: Will ECB normalization jeopardize eurozone financial stability?
2
8
Infrastructure: Will high inflation and rising interest rates derail U.S. public
infrastructure investment?
3
1
Macro: As global growth slows, why
is the right mix of monetary and fiscal policy
important?
3
3
China: Will cracks break the economic wall?
3
5
Corporates: Will companies buckle
under higher borrowing costs and inflation?
3
7
Emerging Credit Risks: In an extremely dynamic risk environment, how does S&P
Global Ratings evaluate emerging risks?
39
Energy: Can Europe compete without cheap energy?
4
1
Supply Chains: Will the U.S.
-China semiconductor dispute split the chip industry?
4
4
Energy Transition: How has the decarbonization pathway changed as access and
affordability move up the energy transition agenda?
4
6
Climate Risk: What are the short
- to medium-term costs of climate change?
4
8
Physical Risk: If extreme weather events become the norm, how might
individuals, compa
nies, and governments manage the costs?
5
0
Cyber: How will cyber warfare shape credit risk?
5
3
Future Of Money: Will stablecoins and
CBDCS become mainstream?
5
5
Regional Credit Conditions
North America: Worse Before It Gets Better
57
Europe: Time To Face The Music
59
Asia
-Pacific: Still Above Water
61
Emerging Markets: Downturn Exacerbates Risks
63
Global Credit Outlook 2023: No Easy Way Out
spglobal.com/ratings/CreditOutlook2023
Dec. 1, 2022
4
Global Credit Outlook 2023
No Easy Way Out
As we look at the global credit markets for the year ahead, some of the shocks that have
reverberated across economies and markets are showing early signs of easing. While nothing is
assured, our base-case scenario assumes policy rates will peak by the middle of the year in the
largest economies, with the global economy slowly regaining momentum as China lifts its COVID
restrictions and supply disruptions ease further. This could lead to a stabilization of financing
conditions in the latter half of the year, assuming central banks succeed in trimming inflation. But
uncertainties remain high, with a focal point being the unfolding war between Russia and Ukraine
and its implications for energy markets.
Finding the way out of the strains weighing on credit leaves little room for error. Inflation
continues to run hot in many regions, which means central bankers are likely to remain hawkish in
the near term; supply bottlenecks persist as the Russia-Ukraine war rages on and China’s COVID
lockdowns continue; and some major economies are set to slip into recession as price pressures
sap consumer demand and higher borrowing costs crimp investment. Moreover, the lag between
rate hikes and their effects means that prices will stay elevated—and consumer purchasing
power diminished—for some time. Additionally, governments largely lack the fiscal capacity to
spend their way through this turn in the credit cycle, having piled on debt during the pandemic.
In the near term, we expect credit pressures to intensify, with a world order that's increasingly
fragmented and fragile. Sectors dependent on discretionary spending such as consumer goods
and retail, energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals, and rate-sensitive sectors such as
housing, will likely suffer most, while others such as commodities and energy producers are
benefiting from the current environment. Similarly, rising rates in most cases are boosting banks'
net interest income, and they appear to be well-positioned for higher loan losses, which take time
to materialize, thanks to robust capitalization and liquidity. On the other hand, sovereigns will
Key Takeaways
• As we end a year in which COVID, a war in Europe and an associated energy crisis, and
high inflation roiled markets and slowed the global economy, early signs of easing of some
of these pressures provide hope that credit conditions could stabilize in the second half
of 2023. But finding a way out of the strains weighing on credit leaves little room for error.
• In the near term, S&P Global Ratings expects pressures on credit ratings to intensify, as
corporate borrowers find it more difficult to pass through high input costs to consumers
struggling with rising prices and a mild recession in some of the world's largest
economies. We forecast speculative-grade corporate default rates in the U.S. and Europe
to double. As major central banks remain hawkish to fight inflation, governments have
diminishing fiscal options to deploy after piling on debt during the pandemic.
• Many borrowers built up enough buffers during the long stretch of favorable financing
conditions to ride out a rough patch—at least for some time—supporting credit quality in
many sectors. However, ratings are lower than they were prior to the pandemic, and debt
levels higher, with 29% of nonfinancial corporates rated 'B-' or below.
• Risks to our base-case scenario remain firmly on the downside, given an increasingly
fragmented and fragile geopolitical situation. Tighter financing conditions on the back of
entrenched inflation, a deeper and longer-than-expected recession, and persistent input-
cost inflation could squeeze further corporate margins and government balances, leading
to sharper credit deterioration.
Contacts
Alexandra Dimitrijevic
London
+44
-20-7176-3128
alexandra.dimitrijevic
@spglobal.com
Gregg Lemos
-Stein
New York
+1
-212-438-1809
gregg.lemos
-stein
@spglobal.com
David Tesher
New York
+1
-212-438-2618
david.tesher
@spglobal.com
Global Credit Outlook 2023: No Easy Way Out
spglobal.com/ratings/CreditOutlook2023
Dec. 1, 2022
5
continue to feel credit pressures, with slower economic activity weighing on fiscal balances (and
countries generally having less fiscal flexibility after the pandemic). Credit conditions in emerging
markets (EMs) will remain under particular pressure from the combination of a strong U.S dollar,
high energy and food prices, and a slowdown in global demand.
Chart 1
*Global SG default rate data as of Q3 2022. All Q4 2022 data as of Nov. 24, 2022. Quarter-over-quarter trend indicates
changes compared to the Q3 2022 data published in Global Credit Conditions Q4 2022: Darkening Horizons. IG--
investment
grade. SG--speculative grade. YTD-year-to-date. Weakest links are defined as issuers rated ‘B-’ and below, with either a
negative outlook or on CreditWatch negative. North America includes U.S. and Canada. Emerging markets include countries
in Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and Europe. Default counts may include confidentially-rated issuers and are preliminary and
subject to change. Net outlook bias refers to the percentage of issuers with a positive bias minus the percentage of issuers
with a negative bias. All outlook bias calculations include global financial, nonfinancial and sovereign issuers. Sources: S&P
Global Ratings and S&P Global Market Intelligence’s CreditPro®.
Interest rates will continue to rise. Central banks' determination to bring down inflation
suggests that policy rates need to go higher still. We estimate that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
policy rate will peak at 5.0%-5.25% in the second quarter and the European Central Bank’s at
2.25% in the first quarter. Policy makers will likely err on the side of doing too much, given that
many were seen as behind the curve in the inflation battle. As a result, the chances of an
economic "soft landing" have all but disappeared. We estimate that the steepest increases in
policy rates in four decades, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy-supply
constraints from the Russia-Ukraine war, mean a sharp slowdown is all but inevitable.
Historical fallen angels (No.)IG rating actions (No.)
IG biases (%)
Global SG default rate (%)*
SG rating actions (No.)
SG biases (%)
Ratings at a glance (%)
Regional default insights (No.)
Rating and outlook quarterly trends
Q4 2022 6 5 1 3
2022 YTD 35 16 16 24
2021 YTD 36 13 9 18
Leading sector Consumer Media and Homebuilders Homebuilders
2022 YTD products entertainment and real estate and real estate
North America Europe Asia-Pacific Emerging markets
Outlook bias (6.5) (6.0) 0.0 (3.0)
North America Europe Asia-Pacific Emerging markets
Potential fallen angels 3.1 3.5 3.3 4.7
Weakest links (of SG) 12.0 8.7 8.3 9.6
Quarter-over-quarter trend. Positive quarterly change. Negative quarterly change. No quarterly change.
150
100
50
0
50
2022202020182016
-150
50
Upgrades
Downgrades
800
600
400
200
0
200
2022202020182016
800
200
Upgrades
Downgrades
17.2
38
96
20
9.7
6.7
Negative
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2022202020182016
0
5
10
15
20
2022202020182016
0
10
20
30
40
50
2022202020182016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2022202020182016
2
10.0
1.6
Positive
Negative
Positive
20
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