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2022年南亚经济报告(英).pdf
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© 2022 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433
Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org
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This work is a product of the sta of The World Bank with external contributions. The ndings, interpretations, and conclusions
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for commercial purposes, under the following conditions:
Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2022. “Reshaping Norms: A New Way Forward” South Asia Economic Focus
(April), World Bank, Washington, DC. Doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1857-8. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO
Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation
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Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: [email protected].
ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1857-8
DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1857-8
Cover design: Gabriel Lora
Acknowledgements
III
Acknowledgements
This report is a joint product of the Oice of the Chief Economist for the South Asia Region
(SARCE) and the Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment (MTI) Global Practice. Its prepa-
ration was led by Valerie Mercer-Blackman and Zoe Leiyu Xie (both Senior Economists).
Maurizio Bussolo (Lead Economist) was responsible for Chapter 3. The report was prepared
under the oversight of Hans Timmer (Chief Economist, South Asia Region), in close collab-
oration with Hoon Sahib Soh, Shabih Ali Mohib (both Practice Managers, MTI) and Zoubida
Kherous Allaoua (South Asia Regional Director, Equitable Growth Finance and Institutions).
The core team for Chapter 1 consisted of Zoe Leiyu Xie, Sebastian Franco Bedoya (Research
Analyst), and Xiao'ou Zhu (Consultant). Miguel Eduardo Otero Nule (former Consultant)
contributed to the early stage of the chapter. Jiemin Ren (Consultant) contributed Box 1.3
and the contents of Section 1.4. Franz Ulrich Ruch (Economist, Prospects Group) contrib-
uted analysis used in Sections 1.2 and 1.5. Holti Banka (Financial Sector Specialist, Finance,
Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice) contributed Box 1.4. The core team for
Chapter 2 consisted of Valerie Mercer-Blackman, Lazar Milivojevic (Consultant Economist),
Victor Mylonas (Consultant, Fiscal Policy and Sustainable Growth), and Yi (Claire) Li
(Consultant). Lazar Milivojevic contributed Box 2.1. Margaret Triyana (Economist) contrib-
uted Box 2.2 and inputs to the Chapter. Alexander Haider (Research Analyst, Global Macro
and Debt) contributed to the macroeconomic modelling for Chapter 2. The team of Chapter
3 was led by Maurizio Bussolo, together with S Anukriti (Research Economist, Development
Research Group) and Ana Maria Munoz Boudet (Senior Social Scientist, Poverty and Equity
Global Practice) and included: Jessy Amarachi Ezebuihe (Consultant), Tasmia Rahman
(Economist, Poverty and Equity Global Practice), Nele Warrinnier (Consultant Economist),
and Anaise Marie Williams (Consultant). The Chapter 3 box was contributed by Andreas
Eberhard and Veronica Michel Gutierrez (both from the Jobs Group). Dr. Stavros Poupakis
(Lecturer, University College London Institute for Global Health) also shared inputs for
Chapter 3.
Colleagues from MTI’s Macro-Fiscal team provided key inputs for the country analysis used
in Chapters 1 and 2, including Tobias Akhtar Haque (Afghanistan); Melanie Simone Trost
(Bhutan); Bernard Haven and Nazmus Sadat Khan (Bangladesh); Richard Walker and Ruijie
Chen (Maldives); Alice Joan Brooks and Nayan Krishna Joshi (Nepal); Rangeet Ghosh, Kanika
Bhatnagar, and Rishabh Choudhary (India); Derek Hung Chiat Chen and Zehra Aslam (Pakistan);
Kishan Abeygunawardana (Sri Lanka).
ResHAPIng noRms: A new wAY FoRwARd
IV
Chapter 1 benetted from inputs and comments provided by Miquel Dijkman, Tatsiana
Kliatskova, Namoos Zaheer, Venkat Bhargav Sreedhara, Tushar Arora (all Finance,
Competitiveness and Innovation), and Nandini Krishnan (Senior Economist, Poverty and
Equity). Chapter 2 benetted from inputs provided by Andrew Burns (Lead Economist, Global
Macro and Debt), Laura Liliana Moreno Herrera (Data Scientist, Poverty and Equity), and
Michael Norton (Consultant Economist). Both chapters also benetted from comments pro-
vided by Robert Beyer, Emilia Skrok, Florian Blum, Aroub Farooq, Rafay Khan, and Gonzalo
J. Varela (all MTI, Macro-Fiscal).
Helpful comments and suggestions on Chapter 3 were provided by Wei Winnie Wang (Senior
Transport Specialist, Transport Global Practice), the Bangladesh Bhutan Gender Platform
team, the South Asia regional gender team including Isis Gaddis, Anne Kuriakose, Sarah
Haddock, and Maria Beatriz Orlando, and the India Macro-Fiscal team comprising Kanika
Bhatnagar, Rangeet Ghosh, Mohini Gupta, Emilia Skrok, and Hoon Sahib Soh.
Rana Al-Gazzaz (Consultant) facilitated various aspects of the report’s preparation, produc-
tion, and dissemination. Alejandro Espinosa at Sonideas was responsible for the layout,
typesetting, and an accompanying video. Gabriel Lora and Carlos Reyes designed the graph-
ics and layout. William Shaw provided excellent economic editing. Barbara Yuill copyedited
the chapters. Elena Karaban (Manager, South Asia Region External Aairs), Diana Ya-Wai
Chung (Senior External Aairs Oicer), Trishna Thapa (External Aairs Oicer), and Adnan
Javaid Siddiqi (Consultant) coordinated the dissemination. Neelam Chowdhry and Ahmad
Khalid Afridi provided valuable administrative support.
South Asia as used in this report includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives,
Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The cuto date for this report was April 4, 2022.
South Asia Chief Economist Oice
Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment Global Practice
contents
V
Contents
Acknowledgements III
Abbreviations XI
Executive Summary XV
CHAPTER I
Stronger Headwinds during Recovery 1
Introduction 1
1.1 An uneven recovery characterized by challenges 1
1.2 Rising global commodity prices pushing up ination 14
1.3 Continued supply-side constraints 22
1.4 Financial sector vulnerabilities 25
1.5 Policy support 33
Appendix 47
Appendix A.1. Loan moratorium policies in select South Asian countries during the COVID-19
pandemic 47
References 49
CHAPTER II
Charting the Course to A New Normal 55
Introduction 55
2.1 Recovery continues despite headwinds from Europe 55
2.2 Risks to the forecast center around price impacts 63
2.3 Greening of taxation can reduce current problems and alleviate future bottlenecks 73
Appendixes 87
Appendix A.2.1 Methodology for estimating external spillovers in India and Sri Lanka 87
Appendix A.2.2 Overview of the Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT) 87
Appendix A.2.3 Data sources and methodology used to analyze the distributional
consequences of carbon taxation in South Asia 89
Appendix A.2.4. Primary energy use by type of fuel 91
References 92
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