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EN_汉密尔顿指数:评估国家在先进产业竞争中的表现-ITIF.pdf
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评估国家在先进产业竞争中的表现
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itif.org
The Hamilton Index: Assessing National
Performance in the Competition
for Advanced Industries
ROBERT D. ATKINSON | JUNE 2022
Compared to major competitors, U.S. output in key advanced industries is weak and declining.
Congress and the administration should launch an economic “moon shot” initiative committing
to increase the concentration of these industries in the U.S. economy by at least 20 percentage
points relative to the global average within a decade.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
▪ Nations are in a fierce win-lose competition for global market share in advanced, traded-
sector technology industries, because winning enables economic and national security—
especially for allied nations where China’s gain comes at their loss.
▪ ITIF’s Hamilton Index of Advanced-Industry Performance shows America is strongest in
pharmaceuticals, other transportation equipment (principally aerospace), and IT and
other information services (software and Internet companies).
▪ U.S. global market share is quite low and falling in electrical equipment; machinery and
equipment; and motor vehicles. Overall U.S. global market share in advanced industries
has fallen since 1995 to 6 percent under the size-adjusted global average.
▪ China’s share in advanced industries is 34 percent higher than the global average, Japan
43 percent, Germany 74 percent, South Korea and Taiwan both more than double.
▪ To match the advanced-industry share of China’s economy, U.S. output would have to
expand by nearly $680 billion (42 percent).
▪ To
reduce these gaps, Congress should pass and fully fund competitiveness bills now on
the table, plus establish a $25 billion annual “Super CHIPS Act” to incentivize U.S. and
allied-country firms to build or expand advanced-industry production onshore.
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/85754165/bg2.jpg)
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION FOUNDATION | JUNE 2022 PAGE 2
CONTENTS
Key Takeaways ................................................................................................................. 1
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................... 3
ITIF’s Analysis and Findings ........................................................................................... 3
Policy Recommendations ................................................................................................ 5
Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 6
Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 9
Industry-by-Industry Performance ..................................................................................... 13
Pharmaceuticals .......................................................................................................... 13
Electrical Equipment ................................................................................................... 15
Machinery and Equipment ............................................................................................ 17
Motor Vehicles ............................................................................................................ 19
Other Transportation Equipment .................................................................................... 21
Computer, Electronic, and Optical Products .................................................................... 23
IT and Other Information Services ................................................................................. 25
Country-by-Country Performance ....................................................................................... 27
United States .............................................................................................................. 31
Canada ....................................................................................................................... 33
Mexico ....................................................................................................................... 35
The North American Trading Bloc .................................................................................. 37
Germany ..................................................................................................................... 39
EU-28 Minus Germany ................................................................................................. 41
China ......................................................................................................................... 43
India .......................................................................................................................... 45
Japan ......................................................................................................................... 47
Korea ......................................................................................................................... 49
Taiwan ....................................................................................................................... 51
Rest of the World ......................................................................................................... 53
Policy Implications ......................................................................................................... 55
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 58
Endnotes ....................................................................................................................... 59
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/85754165/bg3.jpg)
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION FOUNDATION | JUNE 2022 PAGE 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Nations are in a fierce win-lose global competition for market share in advanced, traded-sector
technology industries, because winning enables economic and national security. That is
especially true for allied nations, because China’s gain comes at their loss and vice versa.
Winning—not only the competition for innovation leadership but also for production capacity—
will boost wages, international competitiveness, and economic and national security.
When it comes to the U.S. national interest, innovation-based production is key. The United
States has a long history of pioneering innovations only to see their production captured by other
nations, including China, which reduces growth, weakens the terms of trade (creating a higher
trade balance and/or a weaker dollar), and degrades the national security industrial base.
Figure 1: Total production and global market shares in Hamilton Index sectors, 2018
ITIF’s Analysis and Findings
The Hamilton Center on Industrial Strategy at the Information Technology and Innovation
Foundation (ITIF) examined national changes in global shares of output in seven industry sectors
that the Center has aggregated into the Hamilton Index of Advanced-Technology Performance:
pharmaceuticals; medicinal, chemical, and botanical products; electrical equipment; machinery
and equipment; motor vehicle equipment; other transport equipment; computer, electronic, and
optical products; and information technology and information services. This report covers three
CAN $87B
CHN $1.5T
EU28 (-DEU)
$1.1T
DEU $578B
IND $256B
JPN $602B
KOR $296B
MEX $98B
TWN $111B
USA $1.6T
All Others $897B
0.0x
0.5x
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Relative to the Average Size-Adjusted Share (LQ)
Global Market Share
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/85754165/bg4.jpg)
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION FOUNDATION | JUNE 2022 PAGE 4
years—1995, 2006, and 2018—for 10 countries and regions: the United States, Canada,
Mexico, Germany, the EU-28 minus Germany, China, India, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.
The data show U.S. performance is weak and declining, both in absolute market share and
relative to the size-adjusted global average (a ratio known as a location quotient). It is strongest
in IT and other information services (software and Internet companies) and other transportation
equipment (principally aerospace). In contrast, U.S. global market share in electrical equipment,
machinery and equipment, and motor vehicles is quite low and falling. Significant growth in the
IT and other information services sector, both globally and especially in the United States, is why
the overall decline in U.S. global market share of advanced industries was limited to 1.5
percentage points from 1995 to 2018.
In relative terms, the U.S. pharmaceutical sector, along with other transportation, and IT and
other information services, are all larger than the global average, while electrical equipment,
machinery, motor vehicles, and computing and electronics are all below average (figure 2). In
1995, advanced industries constituted about the same share of the U.S. economy as the global
economy; by 2018, the share had fallen to 94 percent of the global average. In other words, the
United States is less specialized than the rest of the world is in these advanced industries.
Figure 2: U.S. performance in the advanced industry sectors comprising ITIF’s Hamilton Index
Between 1995 and 2018, many countries’ global shares of advanced-industry output changed
significantly (figure 3). As Japan’s overall share of the global economy fell, its share of advanced-
industry output plummeted too, while China’s global market share increased by more than a
factor of five. The U.S. share fell slightly.
In relative terms, most other nations held significantly higher shares of the global market in
advanced industries than the United States: In 2018, China’s share was 34 percent above the
0x
1x
2x
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Other
Transport
Equip.
IT & Other
Info.
Services
Pharma. Computer,
Electronic
& Optical
Machinery
& Equip.
Motor
Vehicles
Electrical
Equip.
Total Total
Minus
IT & Info.
Services
Size-Adjusted Average (LQ)
Global Market Share
1995 Share 2006 Share 2018 Share 1995 LQ 2006 LQ 2018 LQ
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/85754165/bg5.jpg)
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION FOUNDATION | JUNE 2022 PAGE 5
global average, Japan was 43 percent higher, Germany 74 percent above the average, and South
Korea and Taiwan were both more than twice the average. Interestingly, China’s relative share
fell, especially after its 2009 peak, while Japan’s relative share stayed largely stable.
Figure 3: Global market shares of Hamilton Index sectors, 1995–2018
If U.S. policymakers want advanced industries to be the same share of the U.S. economy as they
are in the rest of the world, advanced-industry output will have to expand by about $100 billion
annually. To match China, output would have to expand by nearly $680 billion (42 percent).
Policy Recommendations
To close these gaps, Congress should pass and fully fund the competitiveness legislation now on
the table, including the provisions in the Senate bill regarding the National Science Foundation
and the CHIPS Act. But as important as this legislation is, Congress will need to do more, if for
no other reason than other countries, including China are doing more. That is why Congress and
the Biden administration should establish an economic “moon shot” initiative, committing the
nation to increase its relative level of advanced-industry concentration by 20 percentage points
in a decade. Assuming a 3 percent growth rate in the rest of the economy, doing so could add
nearly $2.5 trillion to advanced-industry output over 10 years. It would also reduce U.S. supply
chain vulnerability, create millions of good jobs, reduce the trade deficit, weaken China’s
advanced economy, and shore up dual-use industries critical to U.S. national defense.
To help achieve all of this, Congress should pass and fund a $25 billion annual “Super CHIPS
Act”—a federal incentive program (to be matched by state and local governments) that provides
financial incentives for U.S. and allied-country firms to build or expand advanced-industry R&D
and production sites in the United States.
0.0x
0.5x
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Canada Mexico Taiwan India Korea Germany Japan All
Others
EU-28
Minus
Germany
China USA
Size-Adjusted Average (LQ)
Global Market Share
1995 Share 2006 Share 2018 Share 1995 LQ 2006 LQ 2018 LQ
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