3GLOBAL IMPACT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE
dramatic implications for social cohesion, nan-
cial systems and global peace and security.
Food should never be a luxury; it is a funda-
mental human right. And yet, this crisis may
rapidly turn into a food catastrophe of global
proportions.
This catastrophe has been years in the making,
but since the war it has become unbearable for
many countries. In 2022, between 179 million and
181 million people are forecasted to be facing
food crisis or worse conditions in 41 out of 53
countries where data are available
1
. In addition
19 million more people are expected to face
chronic undernourishment globally in 2023, if
the reduction in food exports from the Russian
Federation and Ukraine result in lower food
availability worldwide
2
. Record high food prices,
exchange rate devaluation and inationary pres-
sures are key factors. While the FAO food price
index had reached a record high in February
2022 before the war started, since then it has had
some of the largest one-month increases in its
history, with its record high in March 2022. And
yet, despite a very challenging situation today,
some factors suggest the food security situation
may get much worse still in coming seasons.
Higher energy costs, trade restrictions and a loss
of fertilizer supply from the Russian Federation
and Belarus have led to fertilizer prices rising
even faster than food prices. Many farmers, and
especially smallholders, are thus squeezed to
reduce production, as the fertilizers they need
become more expensive than the grains they sell.
Critically, new fertilizer plants take at least two
years to become operational, meaning that most
of the current supply of fertilizers is limited.
Because of this key fertilizer issue, global food
production in 2023 may not be able to meet rising
demand. Rice, a major staple which up to now
has low prices because of good supplies, and is
the most consumed staple in the world, could
be signicantly aected by this phenomenon
1 See Global Network Against Food Crises Report 2022 http://www.ghtfoodcrises.net/leadmin/user_upload/ghtfoodcrises/doc/resources/GRFC_2022_FINAl_
REPORT.pdf
Notes: All websites in footnotes were accessed in May 2022.The term “dollars” ($) refers to United States dollars unless otherwise specied.
2 Forthcoming State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2022 Report.
of declining fertilizer aordability for the
next season.
Time is short to prevent a food crisis in 2023
in which we will have both a problem of food
access and food availability. If the war continues
and high prices of grain and fertilizers persist
into the next planting season, food availability
will be reduced at the worst possible time, and
the present crisis in corn, wheat and vegetable
oil could extend to other staples, aecting
billions more people.
Export restrictions on food and fertilizers have
surged since the start of the war. The scale of
current restrictions has now surpassed that expe-
rienced during the food price crisis in 2007/08,
which contributed to 40 per cent of the increase
in agricultural prices. Trade restrictions today
aect almost one fth of total calories traded
globally, which further aggravates the crisis. All
food crises are distributional in nature. This one
is no dierent. Export restrictions prevent the
trade needed to bring essential food supplies and
fertilizers to where they are most required.
In one way or another, everyone is exposed to
the shock waves of the war. The level of exposure
of a country and its ability to deal with the shock
determine a country’s vulnerability. And this
is a challenge in the developing world. The UN
Global Crisis Response Group, together with the
United Nations Regional Economic Commissions,
undertook a global vulnerability assessment
on the capacity of countries to cope with each
of the channels of transmission and the vicious
cycles they can create. The results conrm a
widespread picture of vulnerability: 94 countries,
home to around 1.6 billion people, are severely
exposed to at least one dimension of the crisis
and unable to cope with it. Out of the 1.6 billion,
1.2 billion or three quarters live in ‘perfect-storm’
countries, meaning countries that are severely
exposed and vulnerable to all three dimensions
of nance, food, and energy, simultaneously.
