A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit
Coronavirus sinks global growth
prospects for first half of 2020
Q2 global forecast 2020
- https://t.zsxq.com/iIQVVRb
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Q2 GLOBAL FORECAST 2020
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020
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he Economist Intelligence Unit provides world-leading political and economic analysis and
forecasts for 197 countries. Our reports examine and explain the important political and economic
trends and developments in each country, providing investors and businesses with key takeaways to
understand the current situation and the likely future political and economic developments.
Alongside our comprehensive annual data, we provide quarterly forecasts for 50 countries covering
85% of global output. These forecasts, built using our proprietary econometric models, address the
growing need for high-frequency data to help set budgets, investments and economic projections.
The EIU’s quarterly forecasts include up to 51 headline series for G20 countries, the BRICS grouping
(comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), as well as key emerging markets. These
forecasts are updated continuously and projected out two years, or eight quarters. Our quarterly-
frequency forecasts make use of a pioneering Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) technique
developed by leading econometricians over the past decade. Such models are believed to have strong
forecasting properties, particularly in the short run, and to capture cross-quarter and cross-variable
dynamics eectively.
Prior to the coronavirus outbreak we expected global real GDP growth to be lacklustre this year,
at 2.3% (at market exchange rates). The coronavirus pandemic is a game changer, and we now
expect global output to contract by 2.5% this year—the lowest rate since the global financial crisis.
The negative eect on growth will come via both demand and supply channels. On the one hand,
quarantine measures, illness, and negative consumer and business sentiment will suppress demand.
At the same time, the closure of some factories and disruption to supply chains will create supply
Real GDP growth rate (%), quarter on quarter
BRICS 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2
Brazil 0.5 -1.0 -11.0
China 1.4 -10.9 9.2
India 1.2 5.0 -9.3
Russia 0.4 -0.1 -10.5
South Africa -0.3 -3.0 -7.7
G7
Canada 0.1 -0.3 -4.5
France 0.8 -2.0 -10.0
Germany 0.0 -3.0 -10.0
Italy -0.3 -5.0 -10.0
Japan -1.8 -0.5 -0.4
UK 0.0 -1.0 -10.0
USA 0.5 -1.3 -5.9
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit.
Coronavirus sinks global growth prospects
for first half of 2020
- https://t.zsxq.com/iIQVVRb