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中国的气候挑战:资助向零排放过渡(英).pdf
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中国的气候挑战:资助向零排放过渡(英).pdf
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China’s Climate Challenge:
Financing the Transition to Net Zero
INSIGHT REPORT
JULY 2022
In collaboration with
Oliver Wyman
Contents
Foreword
Executive summary
1 China’s commitment to tackling climate change
2 The financing gap
2.1 Building a stronger information infrastructure
2.2 Balancing lending supply and demand
2.3 Enhancing the policy framework
3 Industry analysis
3.1 Mobility
3.2 Construction and real estate
3.3 Steel
Conclusion
Contributors
Acknowledgements
Endnotes
3
4
5
10
13
15
17
21
22
28
32
38
39
40
42
Images: Getty, Unsplash
© 2022 World Economic Forum. All rights
reserved. No part of this publication may
be reproduced or transmitted in any form
or by any means, including photocopying
and recording, or by any information
storage and retrieval system.
Disclaimer
This document is published by the
World Economic Forum as a contribution
to a project, insight area or interaction.
The findings, interpretations and
conclusions expressed herein are a result
of a collaborative process facilitated and
endorsed by the World Economic Forum
but whose results do not necessarily
represent the views of the World Economic
Forum, nor the entirety of its Members,
Partners or other stakeholders.
China’s Climate Challenge: Financing the Transition to Net Zero 2
An April 2022 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change report found that the global community
is on a pathway to global warming of more than
double the 1.5°C (or 2.7° Fahrenheit) limit agreed
upon in Paris in 2015. The report underscores
the urgency with which private and public sector
leaders must act, and China – currently the world’s
largest carbon emitter – has made an ambitious
pledge to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and
carbon neutrality by 2050.
Fulfilling this commitment will require an
enormous amount of financing – about CNY
140 trillion (Chinese yuan renminbi) ($22 trillion)
in total for the 2020-2060 period across the
electricity, steel, mobility, and construction
and real estate industries alone. These are also
heavily polluting industries that are particularly
hard to transition and require the application
of innovative, new technologies that are early-
stage, capital-intense and risky. Public and
private stakeholders, both from carbon-intense
industries and the financial services community,
need to create new financing models to develop,
test and scale these technologies.
To facilitate this process, the World Economic
Forum, in collaboration with Oliver Wyman, is
engaging global industry leaders in the Financing
the Transition to a Net-Zero Future initiative. In
October 2021 – and in time for the 26th United
Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference of the
Parties (COP26) – initiative members published
an insight report presenting initial findings from
these global discussions. Building on this work and
recognizing China’s significance in accelerating
capital mobilization towards these early-stage
decarbonization technologies, the Forum and
Oliver Wyman convened a group of Chinese
industry leaders and experts in early 2022 to
explore how challenges and opportunities in China
align with or differ from global dynamics. Through
numerous workshops and expert interviews,
more than 50 industry and public sector leaders
contributed insights and observations and posed
yet-to-be-solved questions that are presented in
this insight report.
China holds a critical and outsized role in helping
the global community achieve the targets
of the Paris Agreement and preserving the
planet’s biosphere. At the same time, China’s
available financing mechanisms and its financial
system remain somewhat distinct. A nuanced
understanding of prioritized net-zero technologies
and potential pathways to financing these
technologies in Greater China is therefore critical
to ensure the country can achieve its net-zero
ambitions. This publication seeks to help in turning
these ambitions into realities, show the enormous
opportunities China holds for contributing to the
global carbon-neutrality agenda and also highlight
remaining challenges.
We welcome your feedback on the ideas
presented in this insight report and encourage you
to become part of this important work facilitated by
the World Economic Forum through the Shaping
the Future of Financial and Monetary Systems
Platform and the Mission Possible Platform.
Foreword
China holds immense opportunities
to realize net-zero ambitions and
global environmental change.
Jason Ekberg
Partner, Corporate and
Institutional Banking Practice,
Oliver Wyman
Kai Keller
Platform Curator, The Future
of Financial Services in China,
World Economic Forum
China’s Climate Challenge:
Financing the Transition to Net Zero
July 2022
China’s Climate Challenge: Financing the Transition to Net Zero 3
Executive summary
China has the most ambitious net-zero target
of any country worldwide and so must ensure it
can finance a carbon-neutral transition.
China has declared itself fully committed to having
a decarbonized economy by 2060, a massive
ambition. For more than 15 years, due to its heavily
industrialized economy, it has been the world’s
biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. One unique
challenge the world’s second biggest economy will
face in transitioning to carbon neutrality is balancing
its decarbonization ambitions with the need to
maintain a compelling economic growth rate.
At the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the
Parties (COP26) held in Glasgow, Scotland, from 31
October to 13 November 2021, China and the US
agreed to boost climate cooperation over the next
decade. In a joint declaration, the two countries
called for increased efforts to close the significant
gap, which will be necessary if the world is to keep
its target of restricting the average global temperate
rise to 1.5°C, as set out in the Paris Agreement of
2015. They renewed this commitment to cooperate
at the Forum’s Annual Meeting 2022 in Davos.
Despite these bold words, China’s journey to a
carbon-free future has only just started. As this
report shows, the coming decades will see China
having to invest heavily in economic transformation,
above all in three sectors that, along with energy,
dominate the country’s carbon emissions: steel,
mobility, and construction and real estate.
Covering the R&D expenditure needed to identify
and develop the necessary new technologies and
paying for the new machinery and equipment
that must be bought and installed will require an
immense amount of funding.
This report identifies three areas where change will
be needed to make these shifts possible:
– Finance innovation, particularly in finding ways
in which lending packages can be structured to
meet the needs of long-term borrowers facing
higher costs and/or lower margins.
– Collaboration, particularly between different
players within an industry that can create
incentives for companies to produce or use
sustainable products and inputs.
– Policy support, particularly in the areas of
standards and the use of tax incentives to
discourage unwanted behaviour, such as
through the imposition of carbon taxes, and
encourage desirable practices, such as tax
breaks on green products and services.
Although realizing some of these changes will be
challenging, none looks insurmountable. Rather, as
this report concludes, given the resources China
has available, the commitment of its government
and the time scale over which China’s transition to
carbon neutrality will occur, there is good reason to
believe the Chinese economy will indeed be carbon
neutral by 2060.
China’s Climate Challenge: Financing the Transition to Net Zero 4
China’s commitment to
tackling climate change
1
Through the adoption of green technologies,
China can radically transform their economy
to achieve net zero.
China’s Climate Challenge: Financing the Transition to Net Zero 5
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