Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2022 2026
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Executive summary
In a year characterised by continuing COVID-19 waves
and economic recovery programmes, as well as an
energy crisis that saw record-high electricity prices
around the world, many turned to solar solutions for
their energy needs. In 2021, 167.8 GW of solar capacity
was grid-connected globally, a 21% growth over the
139.2 GW added the year before, establishing yet
another global annual installation record for the sector.
This brings the total operating solar fleet to 940 GW
by the end of 2021, with the Terawatt milestone
already achieved ahead of the publication of this
Outlook in May 2022.
This remarkable growth has no match among any
other power generation technology. Out of the over
300 GW of new global renewable power generating
capacity, solar alone installed more capacity than all
other renewable technologies combined, claiming a
share of 56%. Solar also deployed more capacity than
all fossil fuel power generation technologies together
in 2021. At the same time, however, solar still meets
only a small share of around 4% of the global
electricity demand, while over 70% is provided by non-
renewable sources.
Challenges across the supply chain did not stop the
progress of solar’s cost competitiveness. With a
further 3% decrease compared to the previous year,
today the cost of utility-scale solar is consistently
lower than any range of new conventional power
generation sources, while the cost-competitiveness
of solar + storage versus gas peakers is already
undisputable in certain regions.
Solar tender results provide testimony for the growing
competitiveness of solar technology around the world,
with new record-low solar tariffs registered again in
2021. Solar’s new lowest bid of 1.04 USD cents in Saudi
Arabia was 21% lower than the previous record set in
Portugal in 2020.
With a 14% annual growth rate and an all-time high
54.9 GW new solar, China kept its market leadership in
2021, adding twice as much solar power capacity than
the second-largest market, the United States, which
continued its remarkable growth performance with a
42% annual expansion. After a disappointing year in
2020, India reclaimed the third position with 14.2 GW
installed. The record solar years in both China and India
were not high enough to maintain the Asia-Pacific
region’s global share, which lost 6 percentage points
to 56%, while the Americas and Europe grew to 22%
and 19% respectively.
Despite the increase in solar component and freight
prices that affected the sector in 2021 extending into
2022, this year we expect another record-breaking
performance. In 2022 our Medium Scenario
anticipates additional global solar installation
capacities to increase by 36% to 228.5 GW. The world
will see very strong demand for solar in the next four
years, growing from 255.8 GW additional capacity
in 2023 to 347 GW in 2026. It will most likely add
314.2 GW in 2025, 18% more than we anticipated in
last year’s GMO.
If it took 10 years to upscale the world’s total grid-
connected solar capacity from 100 GW in 2012 to
1 TW in 2022, it will take only a little more than
3.5 years to double it to 2 GW by end of 2025. At the
end of our forecasting period, we expect 2.3 TW of
solar to be installed worldwide.
Despite the global market growth, the number of
markets in the GW range has remained 17 in 2021,
although sustained growth is expected on this front,
too – we forecast 21 GW markets in 2022, 29 in 2023
and 34 in 2024.
This year’s regional focus is on Latin America. With the
support of the Global Solar Council (GSC), we have
provided an in-depth analysis of solar in a market that
grew 44% in 2021 thanks to exciting developments in
its GW-scale markets Brazil and Chile. The future for
solar in the region looks promising, particularly in Brazil,
which, for the first time, has entered the top 10 of the
prospected largest solar markets over the 5-year
report outlook period. Brazil is expected to install
54 GW by 2026, that’s comparable to Germany’s –
Europe’s largest solar market – level of installations,
until recently.
