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Machine Learning for Financial
Risk Management with Python
Algorithms for Modeling Risk
With Early Release ebooks, you get books in their earliest form—the
author’s raw and unedited content as they write—so you can take
advantage of these technologies long before the official release of these
titles.
Abdullah Karasan
Machine Learning for Financial Risk Management with Python
by Abdullah Karasan
Copyright © 2022 Abdullah Karasan. All rights reserved.
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December 2021: First Edition
Revision History for the Early Release
2020-02-26: First Release
2021-05-19: Second Release
2021-09-10: Third Release
See http://oreilly.com/catalog/errata.csp?isbn=9781492085256 for release
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it is your responsibility to ensure that your use thereof complies with such
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978-1-492-08518-8
[LSI]
Preface
AI and ML reflect the natural evolution of technology as increased
computing power enables computers to sort through large data sets and
crunch numbers to identify patterns and outliers.
—BlackRock (2019)
Financial modeling has a long history with many successfully accomplished
task but at the same time it has been fiercely critized due mainly to lack of
flexibility and non-inclusiveness of these models. 2007-2008 financial crisis
fueled this debate and paved the way for innovations and different
approaches in the field of financial modeling.
Of course, this financial crisis is not the mere reason that precipitates the
growth of AI applications in finance but also two more main drivers have
spurred the adoption of AI in finance. That being said, data availability has
enhanced computing power and intensified researches in 1990s.
Financial Stability Board (2017) stresses the validity this fact by stating:
“Many applications, or use “cases”, of AI and machine learning
already exist. The adoption of these use cases has been driven by both
supply factors, such as technological advances and the availability of
financial sector data and infrastructure, and by demand factors, such as
profitability needs, competition with other firms, and the demands of
financial regulation.”
—FSB
As a sub-branch of financial modeling, financial risk management has been
evolving with the adoption of AI in paralell with ever-growing role in
financial decision making process. In his celebrated book, Bostrom (2014)
denotes that there are two important revolutions in the history of mankind:
Agricultural Revolution and Industrial Revolution. These two revolutions
have such a profound impact that any third revolution of similar magnitude
would double in size of world economy in 2 weeks. Even more strikingly, if
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