2016 ICM Summary Sheet
In recent months, Europe's migrant crisis has begun to unfold at an unprecedented pace, which becomes a matter of great concern. To help
better understand and thus effectively deal with the problem, we established a Dual Goal Network Planning Model. Firstly, we quantify the
factors that influence refugee’s migration routes. According to the refugee amount and geographical distribution features of their original
countries, we then select five typical refugee exporting places and ten major refugee receiving countries. These routes are abstracted to a
Networking Model for analysis. For each route, we put weighted values on its model parameters, establish the optimal objective function,
find the optimal solution and acquire the optimal pattern of refugee migration. To improve the accuracy and applicability, we then revise
and further optimize our model in two ways. Firstly, traffic conditions on each route are taken into account and an analysis of dynamic
changes on receiving countries' capacity is conducted. Also, uncertain factors were eliminated while the most sensitive ones are retained to
enlarge the model's scope of application. In the end, we make a set of policy proposals concerning refugee migration.
Firstly, we choose the distribution of refugees, transportation availability and capacity of refugee-receiving countries as three general
factors which can influence the security and efficient movement of refugees. Each factor is determined by several metrics which can be
easily detected. Firstly we use the quantity of refugees and major origins to describe the scope and distribution of refugees. Secondly we
choose three parameters to evaluate the transportation availability of each route: the death rate of each migration routes, the distance
between two countries (measured by the distance of accessible routes between two countries’ capitals), and the average time refugees drive
the distance (adjusted with different time spend when crossing different countries’ borders). We set up a risk preference model to evaluate
the objective function of the transportation availability and introduce Accessibility Index as an overall measurement. Thirdly, we analyze
the capacity of refugee-receiving countries in two dimensions: we use principal component analysis (PCA) to combine five metrics into a
new index to measure the refugees’ quality of prospective life in the receiving country, and we set the upper limit of capacity of receiving
refugees according to countries’ population, economy, and unemployment rate.
Secondly, To find the optimal refugee movement, we first abstract refugee migration routes on maps based on several popular routes based
on the popularity and volume of refugees they take. Then we define the optimal refugee movements as the maximum of living quality for
refugees and the maximum of transportation availability. Also we set constrains that all refugees shall be settled and the amount of
refugees in each country shall not exceed the upper limit of countries’ capacity. We then set up a Network Planning Model (NPM). But
because the network model cannot effectively solve problems with multiple objective functions, we further included Weighted Model and
Goal Program in our analysis. The results simulate the optimal strategy of refugees’ movement and the amount of refugees each country
receives.
Thirdly, we include the traffic conditions on each route in our analysis. The dynamic changes on refugee-receiving countries' capacity
resulted from the flooding of refugees and the cascading effects, which will alter the current optimal refugee movement, are also
considered. The System Dynamics Model (SDM) displays the dynamic changes clearly. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) increase
the total resource supply and healthcare services. We put data into the model iteration and test if the optimal refugee is stable in two
different situations.
Fourthly, we devise a set of policies based on the analysis of the results from our model. We also put the laws, cultural and religion
constraints of the effected countries in to consideration. The role of NGO is not negligible and thus their significant impact on policy-
making is also included. In our report, we take the safety and health of refugees and local people as our priority, and put forward the
optimal refugee movement pattern. We emphasis the importance of the establishment of a cooperation mechanism towards this crisis
between EU countries, supporting the frontline countries, inhibiting refugees retention because of unilateral border-closing, and ect.
Finally, we analyze the impact of exogenous events on the optimal refugee movement. We make changes on the assumptions based on a
specific exogenous event and the parameters shift correspondingly. We use stability analysis to test the stability of the movement between
two sets of parameters in two different situations. According to the result of analysis, exogenous event will interrupt the relationship
between two countries, and bring about barriers for the migration of refugees. This parameter is not included in our model, which provides
basis to further optimize our model. Then we discuss the reasonable range for the scale of refugees in this model. We expand the total scale
of refugees by a factor of 10. Then we exclude some irrelevant uncertainties and retain the major factors such as refugees’ adaptability in
receiving countries. From model analysis, the results show that when the number of refugees reaches the upper limit of receiving countries,
the model cannot make proper allocation for the remaining refugees, which also provides basis for further optimization.
In the end we conclude the strength and weakness of our model. By setting a ceiling, the model can prevent the flooding of refugee which
is beyond the capability of the refugee-receiving countries to avoid some conflict. However, although we set a ceiling of the capability,
when encountered with the overflow of the refugee, the model cannot offer a resolution to relocate the refugee properly. The policy of the
countries and the culture difference can also influence the acceptance between countries which are not measured in our model. Also, the
support and function of International government and NGO’s are not included in our model.
