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政策催化车市反弹,新能源车继续势如破竹
撰写日期:2022-07-20
汽车月度销量跟踪及投资策略【2022.06】
太平洋汽车团队
首席分析师:白 宇 执业证书编号:S1190518020004
汽车联席首席:樊夏沛 执业证书编号:S1190522060001
联系人:付秉正
仅供内部参考,请勿外传
6月车市核心看点
◼ 6月零售“淡季不淡”,汽车消费动力增强
2022年6月,国内乘用车零售194.3万辆,同比+17.1%,结束下降趋势;环比实现+43.5%的增长,整体消费水平回升。
◼ 新能源恢复高增长,渗透率保持上升走势
6月新能源乘用车销量53.2万辆,创历史新高,渗透率达27.4%,环比+0.8%,今年上半年新能源乘用车累计零售达到224.4
万辆,同比+120.8%,保持高速增长。
◼ 纯电6月超预期,PEHV交出半年圆满答卷
6月PHEV销量10.8万辆,BEV销量42.4万辆,均为历史新高,其中纯电同比+127.4%,环比+58.4%,超出市场预期。
◼ 自主品牌跑赢大市,同环比持续双升
6月自主品牌乘用车销量近100万辆,同比增长43.8%,1-6月累计销量480.7万辆,同比增长14.5%。6月单月自主品牌市占
率依然维持较高水平,达44.7%。
◼ 比亚迪:刷新单月记录,DMi、EV双箭齐发
6月,比亚迪销量13.4辆,同比增长162.7%,再次刷新了单月销量纪录。比亚迪上半年销量接近65万辆,超越特斯拉成为
上半年全球新能源汽车销量冠军。
◼ 投资策略
预计下半年汽车销量将迎来疫情后回补消费行情,在基本面持续兑现下,基于行业景气度整体估值提升及热门赛道的估值
泡沫化仍将持续,重点关注长城汽车、长安汽车、广汽集团和理想汽车等整车标的,零部件推荐松原股份、经纬恒润、科
博达、银轮股份和明新旭腾。
◼ 风险提示
宏观经济承压导致市场需求萎缩;芯片短供改善不及预期;消费拉动;疫情反复对产业链扰动加剧。
仅供内部参考,请勿外传
◼ 一、6月汽车销量回望
6月零售“淡季不淡”,汽车消费动力增强··················································································································································· 5
新能源恢复高增长,渗透率保持上升走势······················································································································································6
纯电6月超预期,PEHV交出半年圆满答卷·····················································································································································7
自主品牌跑赢大市,同环比持续双升······························································································································································8
◼ 二、国内新势力车企销量及重点车型跟踪
理想汽车:交付量回暖,连续两个月创下新高············································································································································· 10
小鹏汽车:销量连续领先,轿车系列贡献显著············································································································································· 11
蔚来汽车:累计交付实现正增,环比增速六成以上·····································································································································13
哪吒汽车:V车系销量领先,成半年度新势力纯电车榜首··························································································································15
零跑汽车:同比增速居首,实现10万台量产下线·········································································································································17
特斯拉:超级工厂产能释放,产销明显改善··················································································································································19
◼ 三、国内主要上市车企销量及重点车型跟踪
长城汽车:克服供应链困境,海外业务大幅增长·········································································································································22
长安汽车:新能源转型稳健,传统车环比劲增············································································································································· 24
广汽集团:埃安半年销量破十万,新能源表现可圈可点·····························································································································26
比亚迪:刷新单月记录,DMi、EV双箭齐发·················································································································································28
上汽集团:回暖至疫情前水平,自主品牌持续发力·····································································································································30
吉利汽车:同环比均有增加,新能源继续上量············································································································································· 32
◼ 四、新车展望
◼ 五、投资策略&风险提示
仅供内部参考,请勿外传
一、6月汽车销量回望
◆ 6月零售“淡季不淡”,汽车消费动力增强
◆ 新能源恢复高增长,渗透率保持上升走势
◆ 纯电6月超预期,PEHV交出半年圆满答卷
◆ 自主品牌跑赢大市,同环比持续双升
仅供内部参考,请勿外传
6月零售“淡季不淡”,汽车消费动力增强
◼ 据乘联会,2022年6月,国内乘用车零售194.3万辆,同比+17.1%,继4、5连续两月下降后,实现较大涨幅,结束下降趋势;环比实现
+43.5%的增长,产业链复苏迹象强势;
◼ 新一轮乘用车购置税减征政策正式生效,叠加诸多央地利好措施,汽车消费堵点得到疏通,消费增长动力增强,整体消费水平回升。
◼ 6月乘用车市场批发量表现良好,终端市场也有明显起色,总体呈现明显增长态势,表现出“淡季不淡”特征。
图:2022年1-6月乘用车销量(辆)
资料来源:乘联会,太平洋证券整理
图:2015年购置税减免政策对销量提振效果显著
资料来源:乘联会,太平洋证券整理
2,077,739
1,257,634
1,579,263
1,043,874
1,354,017
1,943,000
-5.0%
5.1%
-10.5%
-35.4%
-16.7%
23.2%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月
2021年 2022年 同比
5
仅供内部参考,请勿外传
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