没有合适的资源?快使用搜索试试~ 我知道了~
巴克莱-美股-投资策略-美国多产业:汽车、电子产品疲软-428-66页.pdf
需积分: 0 0 下载量 117 浏览量
2023-07-24
17:32:35
上传
评论
收藏 1013KB PDF 举报
温馨提示
试读
66页
巴克莱-美股-投资策略-美国多产业:汽车、电子产品疲软-428-66页.pdf
资源推荐
资源详情
资源评论
Equity Research
28 April 2019
CORE
Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 58.
Restricted
- Internal
U.S. Multi-Industry
Global Industrial Learnings from
Earnings (Part 2): US questions; Auto,
Electronics still weak; DC divide
We summarize our takeaways from the halfway stage of Q1 global industrial
earnings. We also provide updated thoughts/estimates on NVT (EW) and ROP (EW):
How are we still talking about Auto and Electronics… We are a little surprised that 14
months since our initiation, and 12 months since Auto and Electronics weakness
emerged (Auto and Electronics Red flags raised; April 26, 2018), these Short Cycle
verticals are still surprising investors (albeit after a good share price run-up into
earnings), and companies, to the downside (per MMM and ROK) in terms of Opex and
Capex. Given this weakness, sales growth in General Industrial Products (though Atlas
Copco somehow remained largely immune) and Factory Automation (particularly for
Japanese suppliers - Omron expects the Auto & Electronics weakness to persist in FY19,
while Fanuc is guiding for a 15.5% sales decline) slowed by 300-500bps in Q1.
…And weakness (almost) nowhere else? Many companies have cited de-stocking in
recent months (see inside), as we had expected, given the Q4 pre-buy. We have not
really seen a broader weakness in underlying customer spending arising from Auto /
Electronics issues, such as we saw alongside the O&G softness (which dragged many
other markets down) in 2015. Markets where sales growth has been a little softer in Q1
include HVAC, Water (weighed by PNR), and Healthcare.
More US questions: One of the surprises in recent days has been that median growth in
N America has slowed from 6-7%, to 5% in Q1, partly due to de-stocking.
Long Cycle strong, softer Short Cycle: Long Cycle growth has remained very strong in
Q1 (+10%), per Aerospace (Safran) and Warehouse Automation (Kion). Short Cycle
Consumer / SC Industrial growth has slowed by 500bps / 300bps since Q4.
Datacenter dichotomy: For >6 months, there has been a dichotomy between the
bullish tone from Industrial companies on datacenters, and the tone of the IT pure
plays. Intel under-scored the latter, warning that it now expects its DCG sales to be
down mid-single digit (citing China, inventory, capacity absorption, tough ‘comps’).
Trends through Q1; further slowing into Q2 likely: With ~50% of US and Global MI
companies having reported, overall organic growth has slowed by ~200bps since Q4
(as expected). Most companies claim that trends improved in March / April, relative to
early on in Q1. However, we now estimate slightly lower US MI growth in Q2 (+3%)
than in Q119 (+4.5-5%), as we do not expect most companies which grew at a high-
single digit rate in Q1 to sustain that growth.
Reactions: So far, a necessary (and sufficient) condition of a MI stock outperforming
has been a ‘beat and raise’ (without this, most have underperformed), except where ST
positioning was very skewed (ALLE); this is very different from Q4 earnings season.
For full US MI stock implications please see page 3. Inside, our Vendor Data shows
comparisons of the growth rates for global industrial businesses within different
industries, so one can compare results with peers that have yet to report earnings.
INDUSTRY UPDATE
U.S. Multi-Industry
NEUTRAL
Unchanged
For a full list of our ratings, price target and
earnings changes in this report, please see
table on page 2.
U.S. Multi-Industry
Julian Mitchell
+1 212 526 1661
julian.mitchell@barclays.com
BCI, US
Lee Sandquist
+ 1 212 526 3717
lee.sandquist@barclays.com
BCI, US
Jason Makishi
+1 212 526 5335
jason.makishi@barclays.com
BCI, US
Barclays | U.S. Multi-Industry
28 April 2019 2
Summary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold)
Company
Rating
Price
Price Target
EPS FY1 (E)
EPS FY2 (E)
Old
New
26-Apr-19
Old
New
%Chg
Old
New
%Chg
Old
New
%Chg
U.S. Multi-Industry
Neu
Neu
nVent Electric plc (NVT)
EW
EW
27.47
26.00
26.00
-
1.87
1.82
-3
2.02
2.03
0
Roper Technologies Inc (ROP)
EW
EW
352.48
330.00
342.00
4
12.29
12.91
5
12.46
12.94
4
Source: Barclays Research. Share prices and target prices are shown in the primary listing currency and EPS estimates are shown in the reporting currency.
FY1(E): Current fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research. FY2(E): Next fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research.
Stock Rating: OW: Overweight; EW: Equal Weight; UW: Underweight; RS: Rating Suspended
Industry View: Pos: Positive; Neu: Neutral; Neg: Negative
Barclays | U.S. Multi-Industry
28 April 2019 3
Key reads for those yet to report. The reaction to earnings to date (see Figure 2) suggest that a necessary (and so far, sufficient) condition for a MI stock to outperform is that
it has to ‘beat and raise’ (unless short-term investor positioning is skewed particularly negatively, such as was the case with ALLE):
(i) EMR: Process Automation commentary from ROK (+10% sales growth) augments the positive outlooks from ABB, Schneider, and HON. These suggest that
EMR’s Automation Solutions business can still deliver decent orders growth early in 2019; we remain concerned though regarding the back-end loaded nature of
the company’s 2019 profit guidance (esp. in C&RS).
(ii) Regarding ETN, we had expected slightly stronger growth rates at NVT in light of the positive commentary on Low Voltage demand from ABB and Schneider
(particularly in the Americas). The datacenter comments from Intel (continue to) contrast sharply with Schneider (which noted that the Data Center market
‘continues to grow double-digit’). Vehicle trends may be worse than prior expectations (Auto), and Hydraulics largely in-line (following CAT’s figures). Overall, we
see a fairly balanced risk / reward for ETN, with a slight beat and raise likely;
(iii) GE: Aerospace strength at Safran and P&W bodes well for GE Aviation (and broader decent A&D earnings reports are supportive to a lesser extent for ETN and
PH);
(iv) IR: Atlas’ compressor strength is re-assuring as regards the Short Cycle environment for IR Industrial; HVAC reads from UTX and LII suggest a broadly healthy
demand backdrop for Trane, albeit perhaps some slight slowing since the very-strong 2H18. We expect a beat, but not a raise (given we are early in the year for
HVAC in particular);
(v) CFX (Fab Tech), GDI (Industrial), GTES (Fluid Power), IR (Industrial), KMT (Industrial, WIDIA), RBC (C&I, PTS), RXN (PMC), and PH (Industrial): In General
Industrial Products, growth has slowed since Q4 (to the tune of ~300bps), but this is not worse than what we had been expecting; we think share price reactions
for these names will therefore depend largely on short-term investor positioning and company execution, case-by-case. We think KMT has the brightest
prospects for outperformance, given its Modernization program, solid results from Sandvik and OSG, and cautious investor positioning (relative to GDI, for
example);
(vi) EMR (AS), GDI (Energy) and KMT (Industrial and Infrastructure): Upstream O&G trends have been very uneven so far – decent growth at ROK, but more muted
trends at the US O&G pure plays. The oil price is high, but so is US E&P capital discipline, while domestic rig counts have levelled out, and SKF noted that its US
customers ‘are burning inventory’.
(vii) ETN (Vehicle), GTES (Power Transmission) and KMT (Industrial): Automotive markets continue to be plagued by production cuts and de-stocking; this market
has not surprised positively against low investor / company expectations so far in Q1.
Barclays | U.S. Multi-Industry
28 April 2019 4
Table of Contents
CATALYST CALENDAR .................................................................................... 5
SECTOR PERFORMANCE: HOW HAVE THE COMPANIES / STOCKS
PERFORMED QTD? ........................................................................................... 6
BROAD INITIAL IMPRESSIONS ....................................................................... 7
GEOGRAPHIC DEMAND TRENDS ................................................................ 11
MONTHLY DEMAND TRENDS ..................................................................... 20
END-MARKET ORDERS AND SALES COMMENTARY ............................. 22
END-MARKET ORDERS AND SALES DATA ............................................... 33
DE-STOCKING .................................................................................................. 35
FX ......................................................................................................................... 37
PROFITABILITY................................................................................................. 38
INDIVIDUAL COMPANY TAKEAWAYS: NVT ............................................. 41
INDIVIDUAL COMPANY TAKEAWAYS: ROP ............................................. 43
VENDOR DATA ................................................................................................ 45
Barclays | U.S. Multi-Industry
28 April 2019 5
Catalyst Calendar
We show below our Catalyst Calendar, which provides the earnings dates of companies that serve as ‘read-throughs’ (i.e. have pertinent end markets / competing segments)
to the companies in our Coverage.
FIGURE 1
Catalyst Calendar (All dates that have not yet been disclosed by the respective companies are estimated by Bloomberg; ‘shaded’ names are those yet to report earnings)
Source: Barclays Research, Company Data, Bloomberg Analytics
ALLE ETN GE KMT RBC SWK
Stanley Black & Decker Inc 04/24/2019 Acuity Brands 04/03/2019 Honeywell International Inc 04/18/2019 Fastenal Co 04/11/2019 Lennox International Inc 04/22/2019 Snap-On Inc 04/18/2019
Assa Abloy 04/25/2019 Allison Transmission Holding 04/23/2019 United Technologies Corp 04/23/2019 Osg Corp 04/12/2019 Franklin Electric Co Inc 04/23/2019 United Technologies Corp 04/23/2019
Allegion 04/25/2019 Borgwarner 04/25/2019 Koninklijke Philips Nv 04/29/2019 Sandvik Ab 04/18/2019 Nidec Corp 04/23/2019 Stanley Black & Decker Inc 04/24/2019
Dormakaba 09/12/2019 Nvent Electric 04/25/2019 General Electric Co 04/30/2019 Msc Industrial Direct Co-A 04/10/2019 Skf Ab-B Shares 04/25/2019 Fortune Brands Home & Securi 04/24/2019
Eaton Corp 04/30/2019 Baker Hughes A Ge Co 04/30/2019 Ww Grainger Inc 04/22/2019 Altra Industrial Motion Corp 04/26/2019 Masco Corp 04/25/2019
CFX
Hubbell 04/30/2019 Abb Ltd-Reg 05/02/2019 Kennametal Inc 05/06/2019 Ingersoll-Rand Plc 04/30/2019 Allegion Plc 04/25/2019
Dover 04/18/2019 Littelfuse 05/01/2019 Siemens Healthineers Ag 05/02/2019 Timken Co 05/01/2019 Makita Corp 04/26/2019
Lincoln Electric 04/22/2019 Meritor 05/01/2019
Siemens Gamesa Renewable Ene
05/07/2019
LII
Regal Beloit Corp 05/06/2019 Johnson Controls Internation 05/01/2019
Stryker Corp 04/23/2019 Parker Hannifin 05/02/2019 Siemens Ag-Reg 05/08/2019 Dover Corp 04/18/2019 Emerson Electric Co 05/07/2019 Emerson Electric Co 05/07/2019
National Oilwell Varco 04/25/2019 Abb 05/02/2019 Vestas Wind Systems A/S 05/08/2019 Lennox International Inc 04/22/2019 Rexnord Corp 05/13/2019 Toro Co 05/23/2019
Illinois Tool Works 04/25/2019 Legrand 05/02/2019 Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 05/09/2019 United Technologies Corp 04/23/2019 Teco Electric & Machinery 05/14/2019 Techtronic Industries Co Ltd 08/15/2019
Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc 04/26/2019 Gates Industrial Corp 05/07/2019 Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc 08/06/2019 Ingersoll-Rand Plc 04/30/2019 Rbc Bearings Inc 05/29/2019
Orthofix Medical Inc 04/29/2019 Schneider Electric 07/25/2019 Johnson Controls Internation 05/01/2019
UTX
General Electric 04/30/2019
HDS
Daikin Industries Ltd 05/09/2019
RXN
Textron Inc 04/17/2019
Ossur Hf 04/30/2019
FLOW
Msc Industrial Direct Co-A 04/10/2019 Idex Corp 04/25/2019 Honeywell International Inc 04/18/2019
Flowserve 05/02/2019 Pentair Plc 04/17/2019 Ww Grainger Inc 04/22/2019
MMM
Rockwell Automation Inc 04/25/2019 Lennox International Inc 04/22/2019
Colfax 05/02/2019 Idex Corp 04/25/2019 Watsco Inc 04/23/2019 Johnson & Johnson 04/16/2019 Timken Co 05/01/2019 United Technologies Corp 04/23/2019
Dynatronics Corp 05/14/2019 Spx Flow Inc 05/02/2019 Applied Industrial Tech Inc 04/26/2019 Danaher Corp 04/18/2019 Geberit Ag-Reg 05/02/2019 Stanley Black & Decker Inc 04/24/2019
Flowserve Corp 05/02/2019 Wesco International Inc 05/02/2019 Honeywell International Inc 04/18/2019 Xylem Inc 05/02/2019 Kone Oyj-B 04/25/2019
DHR
Emerson Electric Co 05/07/2019 Hd Supply Holdings Inc 06/04/2019 Taiwan Semiconductor-Sp Adr 04/18/2019 Watts Water Technologies-A 05/02/2019 Schindler Holding-Part Cert 04/26/2019
Johnson & Johnson 04/16/2019 Msa Safety Inc 04/22/2019 Kennametal Inc 05/06/2019 General Electric Co 04/30/2019
Danaher 04/18/2019
FTV HON
Anixter International Inc 04/23/2019 Regal Beloit Corp 05/06/2019 Ingersoll-Rand Plc 04/30/2019
Thermo Fisher Scientific 04/24/2019 Dover Corp 04/18/2019 Honeywell International Inc 04/18/2019 Texas Instruments Inc 04/23/2019 Emerson Electric Co 05/07/2019 Mtu Aero Engines Ag 04/30/2019
Perkinelmer 04/25/2019 Honeywell International Inc 04/18/2019 United Technologies Corp 04/23/2019 Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc 04/24/2019 Rexnord Corp 05/13/2019 Airbus Se 04/30/2019
Mettler-Toledo 05/02/2019 Snap-On Inc 04/18/2019 Wr Grace & Co 04/25/2019 3M Co 04/25/2019 Rbc Bearings Inc 05/29/2019 Johnson Controls Internation 05/01/2019
Dentsply Sirona 05/03/2019 Franklin Electric Co Inc 04/23/2019 Kion Group Ag-Unsp Adr 04/25/2019 Idex Corp 04/25/2019 Daikin Industries Ltd 05/09/2019
Evoqua Water Technologies 05/10/2019 Fortive Corp 04/25/2019 General Electric Co 04/30/2019 Illinois Tool Works 04/25/2019
ROK
Thyssenkrupp Ag 05/14/2019
Agilent Technologies 05/14/2019 Rockwell Automation Inc 04/25/2019 Zebra Technologies Corp-Cl A 04/30/2019 Corning Inc 04/30/2019 Yaskawa Electric Corp 04/11/2019
Cognex Corp 04/29/2019 Johnson Controls Internation 05/01/2019 Apple Inc 04/30/2019 Teradyne Inc 04/23/2019
DOV
National Instruments Corp 04/30/2019 Garmin Ltd 05/01/2019 Henkel Ag & Co Kgaa 05/07/2019 Fanuc Corp 04/24/2019
Dover 04/18/2019 Keysight Technologies In 05/21/2019 Abb Ltd-Reg 05/02/2019 Omron Corp 04/24/2019
Danaher 04/18/2019 Emerson Electric Co 05/07/2019
NVT
Ptc Inc 04/24/2019
Lennox 04/22/2019
GDI
Daifuku 05/10/2019 Nvent Electric Plc 04/25/2019 Rockwell Automation Inc 04/25/2019
Franklin Electric 04/23/2019 Schlumberger Ltd 04/18/2019 Eaton Corp Plc 04/30/2019 Cognex Corp 04/29/2019
Idex 04/25/2019 Halliburton Co 04/22/2019
IR
Hubbell Inc 04/30/2019 Abb Ltd-Reg 05/02/2019
Fortive 04/25/2019 Atlas Copco Ab-A Shs 04/25/2019 United Technologies Corp 04/23/2019 Abb Ltd-Reg 05/02/2019 Emerson Electric Co 05/07/2019
Electronics For Imaging 04/29/2019 Gardner Denver Holdings Inc 04/30/2019 Atlas Copco Ab-A Shs 04/25/2019 Atkore International Group 05/07/2019 Siemens Ag-Reg 05/08/2019
Itt Inc 05/03/2019 Ingersoll-Rand Plc 04/30/2019 Ingersoll-Rand Plc 04/30/2019 Thermon Group Holdings Inc 05/24/2019 Yokogawa Electric Corp 05/08/2019
Calfrac Well Services Ltd 05/01/2019 Gardner Denver Holdings Inc 04/30/2019 Hollysys Automation Technolo 05/09/2019
EMR
Weir Group Plc/The 07/30/2019 Johnson Controls Internation 05/01/2019
PH
Smc Corp 05/15/2019
Honeywell International 04/18/2019 Daikin Industries Ltd 05/09/2019 Caterpillar Inc 04/24/2019
Lennox International 04/22/2019
GTES
Rockwell Automation Inc 04/25/2019
ROP
United Technologies 04/23/2019 Allison Transmission Holding 04/23/2019
JCI
Eaton Corp Plc 04/30/2019 Danaher Corp 04/18/2019
Rockwell Automation 04/25/2019 Rockwell Automation Inc 04/25/2019 Honeywell International Inc 04/18/2019 Parker Hannifin Corp 05/02/2019 Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc 04/24/2019
Ingersoll-Rand 04/30/2019 Altra Industrial Motion Corp 04/26/2019 United Technologies Corp 04/23/2019 Sun Hydraulics Corp (Helios) 05/06/2019 Ptc Inc 04/24/2019
Eaton Corp 04/30/2019 Eaton Corp Plc 04/30/2019 Stanley Black & Decker Inc 04/24/2019 Smc Corp 05/15/2019 Roper Technologies Inc 04/25/2019
Abb 05/02/2019 Littelfuse Inc 05/01/2019 Ingersoll-Rand Plc 04/30/2019 Idex Corp 04/25/2019
Regal Beloit 05/06/2019 Parker Hannifin Corp 05/02/2019 Johnson Controls Internation 05/01/2019
PNR
Rockwell Automation Inc 04/25/2019
Emerson Electric 05/07/2019 American Axle & Mfg Holdings 05/03/2019 Adt Inc 05/07/2019 Pentair Plc 04/17/2019 Perkinelmer Inc 04/25/2019
Yokogawa Electric 05/08/2019 Sun Hydraulics Corp 05/06/2019 Pool Corp 04/18/2019 Constellation Software Inc 05/01/2019
Daikin Industries 05/09/2019 Gates Industrial Corp Plc 05/07/2019 Idex Corp 04/25/2019 Motorola Solutions Inc 05/02/2019
Schneider Electric 07/25/2019 Smith (A.O.) Corp 04/30/2019 Emerson Electric Co 05/07/2019
Xylem Inc 05/02/2019 Agilent Technologies Inc 05/14/2019
Watts Water Technologies-A 05/02/2019 Keysight Technologies In 05/21/2019
Spx Flow Inc 05/02/2019
Evoqua Water Technologies Co 05/10/2019
剩余65页未读,继续阅读
资源评论
2301_76429513
- 粉丝: 9
- 资源: 6730
上传资源 快速赚钱
- 我的内容管理 展开
- 我的资源 快来上传第一个资源
- 我的收益 登录查看自己的收益
- 我的积分 登录查看自己的积分
- 我的C币 登录后查看C币余额
- 我的收藏
- 我的下载
- 下载帮助
安全验证
文档复制为VIP权益,开通VIP直接复制
信息提交成功