巴黎银行-欧洲-投资策略-股息破晓前最黑暗-0619-10页.pdf
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16/05/2019 1
FOCUS | EUROPE
18 June 2019
KEY MESSAGES
• Value and dividend strategies have had a rough ride
since 2009, in contrast to their strong 2000-07 run.
• In dividend investing, avoiding potential value traps is
crucial – achieved by taking growth and sustainability
into account.
• The collapse in inflation expectations has driven the
recent underperformance in value and dividend
strategies.
• The BNPP High Dividend Europe equity index now
offers a 30% valuation discount and a 2.4% yield
premium over the benchmark STOXX Europe index.
• Catalysts for a value and dividend recovery include
falling BBB credit yields, better eurozone PMI and
leading economic indicator, easing financial conditions
(post Fed, ECB).
Fig. 1: 2000-07 salad days for dividend strategies
EQUITY & DERIVATIVES
TRADE IDEAS
Buy the BNP Paribas Easy Equity Dividend Europe
ETF (EDEU FP), based on the BNPP High Dividend
Europe Equity index (BNPIHEUN)
Ref: EUR92.89
The risk of buying an ETF is limited to the notional invested
Sources: BNP Paribas, STOXX.
Edmund Shing, Global Head of Equity & Derivative Strategy BNP Paribas London Branch
Darkest before the dividend dawn
Fig. 2: 2-2.4% excess yield available in EU dividend
yield strategies
Value investing has been tough: Over the last 10
years, value investing has perhaps been the most
difficult strategy to maintain. Cumulatively, the MSCI
World Growth index has outperformed its value
counterpart by 37% since 2009, one of the longest-
ever runs of underperformance for the value factor,
and similar to the level of growth outperformance
achieved over value during the 1998-2000 technology
bubble.
Dividend investing has also undershot of late:
Likewise, high dividend yield has also disappointed
investors of late, with the MSCI World index posting a
5% better return than the MSCI World high dividend
index from the start of 2017 to-date, even after
accounting for dividends in total return terms. Clearly,
any notion of “carry” in equities has been absent in
recent years, a complete reversal from the halcyon
years of 2001 to 2007 when the Euro STOXX Select
Dividend 30 index posted a CAGR 13% ahead of the
STOXX Europe benchmark (Fig. 1).
Over 2% extra “carry” for European high
dividends: With factors like low volatility benefiting
from the ultra-low rates environment, the “carry”
available from European high dividend strategies has
extended to a historically wide 2-2.4% over the
benchmark STOXX Europe on a 12-month forward
basis (Fig. 2).
Sources: BNP Paribas, Bloomberg; Note: equity dividend yields are calculated on a 12-
month forward consensus estimate basis
Please refer to important information and
MAR disclosures at the end of this report
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2002 2004 2006
T
otal return, rebased
S
TOXX Select Dividend 30
S
TOXX Europe
6
.1%
5
.9%
6
.3%
3
.9%
1
.0%
0
.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
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