基于Matlab及GM(1,1)模型的中国养老金缺口预测.pdf
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2023-10-29
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ABSTRACT
Thanks to the development of science and technology and the improvement of
living standards, human beings are living longer than ever before. But demographic
changes and new economic position will weigh heavily on the children and
grandchildren of today's world's retirees. In short, society is about to face a huge
pension gap. China has also entered an aging society and has been listed as one of the
fastest aging countries. The large population base is the main reason, and with the
decline in the birth rate, China has naturally become the country with the largest
number of elderly people in the world. At present, China's aging population shows a
steady growth trend, accordingly. Pension risk has the characteristics of universality
and long-term accumulation. For this reason, the growing number of older people
means that the burden of providing for the elderly is getting heavier and heavier.
Pension funds are under increasing pressure, and there will inevitably be gaps in the
future.
Based on this background, this paper combines relevant data from the national
bureau of statistics and uses Matlab software and GM (1,1) model to quantitatively
calculate China's future pension gap. The final conclusion is that China will have the
first pension gap in 2020, and then it will expand year by year. And I found that the
pension gap is not only caused by the aging of the population, but also by the number
of employees participating in the pension insurance, the rate of refusal, pension
replacement rate, average wage growth rate. In view of this, the following measures
are proposed: accelerating the national pooling of basic old-age insurance 、
strengthening oversight of enterprise contributions to old-age insurance、establishing a
multi-tiered pension system
、
increasing the size and yield of pension investments
、
upholding and innovating the pension system that combines social pooling with
individual accounts.
Keywords: Aging population; Pension gap; GM (1,1) model; Matlab software
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