巴克莱-美股-商业与专业服务业-12月份不出意料地指数（MSCI）下降-17-49页.pdf
需积分: 0 124 浏览量
2023-07-26
11:48:42
上传
评论
收藏 886KB PDF 举报
Equity Research
7 January 2019
CORE
Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 40.
For Your ‘Information Services’
Unsurprisingly weak Dec. for Ratings
(MCO/SPGI) & Index (MSCI); lower #s
Credit Issuance (MCO/SPGI): In the midst of a volatile equity market correction,
December issuance was unsurprisingly down sharply (-57% y/y; already a
seasonally quiet month), bringing 4Q to down 30%+… All asset classes were down
y/y (same as November); and notably there was no U.S./European HY corporate
issuance. Note that January is typically a relatively slow month for issuance, and likely
even moreso this year if markets remain choppy. …and as we mark-to-market, we
lower our 4Q Ratings growth estimates to (14)-(15)% vs. prior (9)-(11)%; and for
conservatism’s sake also tweak 2019 to +2% (from +3%). The resulting changes put
us below 2018 guidance for MCO ($7.38 vs. $7.50-7.65 guide) and SPGI ($8.45 vs.
$8.50-8.60 guide); and we now model in +HSD EPS growth for both in 2019. In this
backdrop, we think SPGI is better positioned given a) greater diversification (50% of
AOI tied to Ratings vs. MCO at 75%+); b) more self-help productivity initiatives; and
c) balance sheet flexibility with ~$2B of cash and leverage already at its 1.75x target.
Index & ETF AUMs (MSCI/SPGI): Clearly the pieces tied to AUM fees (40% of MSCI
Index; 60%+ for SPGI) face market depreciation pressure (e.g. SPX -14%; ACWI ex-
U.S. -12% in 4Q); but both co’s have offsets. Notably, flows into ETFs remained
positive during the pullback; e.g. MSCI ETF AUM was -6% from 12/31/17 to 12/31/18
vs. ACWI ex U.S. down -16%. For SPGI, in the near-term there should be a benefit from
higher derivative trading volumes (20% of mix) given higher market volatility. MSCI,
meanwhile, still has 60% of Index that is Subscription-oriented and growing 10%+.
U.S. Financial Services Hiring (FDS/TRI/SPGI): Trends remain positive... December
hiring was up +2.9% y/y (14th straight month of 2%+ growth); with buy-side (+3.3% in
Nov) and sell-side (+2.8%) both positively contributing. …and while pressures remain,
we maintain EW ratings on FDS and TRI. FDS’s in-line F1Q19 (earnings 12/17) led to
stock weakness during the broader equity sell-off, but we still think it screens as
relatively defensive with a stable growth algorithm (+MSD organic; +100bps of margin
expansion; +LDD EPS growth). For TRI, we think recent relative outperformance fairly
accounts for momentum at “new TRI”; optionality from the Refinitiv stub; and scarcity
value for Canadian investors.
Mortgage Originations (EFX/TRU/FICO): MBA is forecasting 10%+ $-volume
declines in 4Q, bringing 2018 to -7% (+4% purchase; -27% refi). Initial 2019
forecast is for -1% volumes (+4% purchase; -17% refi). By comparison, ELLI at our
TMT conference said its forecast for the mortgage market is to be down 5-6% in 2019
(in unit terms). Remember that EFX is the credit bureau with outsized mortgage
exposure (~20%), while EXPN/TRU/FICO all have <10% mortgage revenues. Non-
mortgage credit trends remain healthy – +8% in Oct., including revolving +11%.
INDUSTRY UPDATE
U.S. Business & Professional Services
NEUTRAL
Unchanged
For a full list of our ratings, price target and
earnings changes in this report, please see
table on page 2.
U.S. Business & Professional Services
Manav Patnaik
+1 212 526 2983
manav.patnaik@barclays.com
BCI, US
Gregory Bardi, CFA
+ 1 212 526 7188
gregory.bardi@barclays.com
BCI, US
Ryan Leonard
+1 212 526 2135
ryan.leonard@barclays.com
BCI, US
剩余48页未读，继续阅读
资源评论
