【免费】巴克莱-美股-航空航天与国防行业-美国二手商用喷气式飞机监测：目前库存改善会传导到价格水平上-28-31页.pdf资源-CSDN文库

需积分: 0 40 浏览量 2023-07-26 11:44:41 上传评论收藏 475KB PDF 举报

资源推荐

资源详情

资源评论

Equity Research

28 December 2018

CORE

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the

firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors

should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 23.

Used Business Jet Monitor

Inventory Improvement Now Looks to

Be Coming Through to Price

We view the used business jet market as a key determinant of new business jet demand

and monitor used inventories, retirements and pricing.

Total used inventory 5% lower YOY in November, ~9% of installed base: Inventory

levels for young used aircraft (0-10 year old), which are most important as a

comparable to new aircraft, are at 5.8% of installed base (including 0-5 year aircraft at

4.3% and 6-10 year at 7.3%) with young inventories down 14% YOY. Young inventory

is ~200 bps below long-term average levels and roughly in line with pre-financial crisis

levels.

Used prices 4% higher YOY in November (R3M): We estimate midsize/large cabin

pricing was ~7% higher, offset by small cabin ~3% lower. We estimate that

midsize/large cabin young pricing has recovered ~20% off its recent lows, while small

cabin young pricing has remained near trough levels. We would highlight higher pricing

for used Challenger 350, XLS/XLS+ and Global 5000.

Young inventory by cabin class: For 0-5 year, used inventories are lowest for midsize

cabin at 3-4%, followed by large cabin at 4-5% and small cabin at ~5%. For 6-10 year,

used inventories for small/midsize/large cabin are at 7%.

Big drop in N America young used: The decline in young used inventories has largely

been driven by North America, the largest region with ~50% of young used inventory.

North American young used inventory declined significantly during 2017/early 2018

from 7-8% to 4-5% of installed base; since July inventories have increased nearly 100

bps, mostly attributable to higher small cabin inventories.

Positive on bizjet: After nearly a decade at trough levels, most key business jet

indicators signal improvement, including our survey of industry professionals, lower

young used inventory levels with improved pricing along with higher corporate CAPX.

However, on the other side, business jet utilization has flattened again recently

following a period of modest improvement. We have Overweight ratings on BBD, GD,

and TXT.

INDUSTRY UPDATE

U.S. Aerospace & Defense

POSITIVE

Unchanged

U.S. Aerospace & Defense

David Strauss

+1 212 526 5580

david.strauss@barclays.com

BCI, US

Matt Akers, CFA

+1 212 526 9019

matt.akers@barclays.com

BCI, US

Kate Copouls, CPA

+1 212 526 3283

kate.copouls@barclays.com

BCI, US

剩余29页未读，继续阅读

内容反馈

2201_75761617

粉丝: 18
资源: 7339

最新资源

资源上传下载、课程学习等过程中有任何疑问或建议，欢迎提出宝贵意见哦~我们会及时处理！点击此处反馈

feedback-tip