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For office use only

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Team Control Number

1924268

Problem Chosen

For office use only

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2019

MCM/ICM

Summary Sheet

A new feature algorithm system for ESV based on Deliberative Monetary Valuation and Emergy Evaluation

The concept of ecosystem service valuation (ESV) is attracting increased attention as a way to communicate

societal dependence on ecological life support systems. In this paper, we focus on determining and assessing the true

and comprehensive valuation of the land use projects when ecosystem services are accounted for.

According to a great deal of reliable references, we divided the ecosystem services into 4 major categories

(supply service, regulation service, support service and cultural service) and subdivided them into 11 features (food

products, materials products, water supply, gas regulation, climate regulation, environment purification, water

purification, soil erosion, soil building, biodiversity and aesthetic landscape). We used Analytic Hierarchy Process

(AHP) to determine the weight (0.0888, 0.0539, 0.0978, 0.0648, 0.0839, 0.0678, 0.0490, 0.0858, 0.1095, 0.1399,

0.1590). More importantly, we innovatively present a new feature algorithm system by synthesizing maasive

kinds of existing features’ calculation methods. Deliberative Monetary Valuation (DMV) is a novel hybrid of

economic and political approach which raises the prospect of a transformative and moralizing experience. Emergy

evaluation is a comprehensive accounting method of environment-economy system based on emergy value. We

created a multiple features ESV model based on DMV and Emergy evaluation to understand the true economic

costs of land use projects.

We used the model to analyze the cost of different scale of land use and development projects, from Wuning

Country to Three Gorges dam area. Wuning Country is a country which locates in Jiangxi province, China. The

ESV of it decreased by about 3.1 million dollars and that of Three Gorges dam area decreased by about 36.77

million dollars. In terms of the Three Gorges dam project, the initial investment cost was 13.43 billion dollars and if

its ESV is concerned, the true cost increases about 0.28% of the initial cost. In terms of Wuning Country project, the

initial investment cost was 70 million dollars and if its ESV is concerned, the true cost increases about 4.42% of the

initial investment cost.

We used the Coefficient of Sensitivity (CS) which means the change of ESV when the value of ecosystem

services per unit area changes 100% to conduct sensitivity analysis. The value of CS depends not only on the

influence of its own feature’s value, but also on its ratio to the sum of the remaining features. The results show that

the absolute values of CS are mostly between (0,1), which means that our model is effective and stable.

Based on the model and results, we made some useful implications to the project planners and managers which

contain keeping vegetation cover, preserving biodiversity, avoiding water pollution and dealing with the solid waste.

These implications can help decision makers effectively realize and then reduce the true project costs.

Concerning the lack of time consideration in the original model, we introduce three spatial and temporal factors

for model extension, namely, net primary production factor, soil erosion factor and precipitation regulator factor. By

comparing the value of each factor with the national average, the corrected emergy value is obtained. These three

factors cover different time and regions, so we get a spatio-temporal dynamic ESV evaluation model which makes

our model more realistic and comprehensive.

 
Contents 
I.Restatement of the Problem .................................................................................................. 1 
1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1 
1.2 The Problem ................................................................................................................ 1 
II.Analysis of the problem ....................................................................................................... 1 
III.Assumptions ........................................................................................................................ 3 
IV.Ecological services valuation model based on DMV and Emergy evaluation ............... 3 
4.1 Model preparation ...................................................................................................... 3 
4.1.1 Analytic Hierarchy Process ............................................................................ 3 
4.1.2 Emergy evaluation based on equivalent value .............................................. 4 
4.2 Symbol List ................................................................................................................. 5 
4.3 Model building ............................................................................................................ 7 
4.3.1 Food products .................................................................................................. 7 
4.3.2 Water purification ........................................................................................... 8 
4.3.3 Gas regulation .................................................................................................. 9 
4.3.4 Environment purification ............................................................................. 10 
4.3.5 Biodiversity .................................................................................................... 10 
4.3.6 Materials products, Water supply and Climate regulation ....................... 11 
4.3.7 Soil erosion ..................................................................................................... 11 
4.3.8 Soil building ................................................................................................... 12 
4.3.9 Aesthetic landscape ....................................................................................... 12 
4.3.10 Ecological services valuation model........................................................... 13 
V.Model application and case study ...................................................................................... 13 
5.1 Case 1: Three Gorges dam area .............................................................................. 13 
5.2 Case 2: Wuning Country ......................................................................................... 14 
VI.The implications on land use project planners and managers ..................................... 15 
VII.Sensitivity analysis........................................................................................................... 16 
VIII.Model extensions: Spatio-temporal dynamic change ................................................. 18 
8.1 Calculation of NPP time - space adjustment factor .............................................. 18 
8.2 Calculation of precipitation and temporal adjustment factor ............................. 19 
8.3 Calculation of spatiotemporal adjustment factors for soil erosion ...................... 19 
IX.Strengths and weaknesses ................................................................................................ 20 
References ............................................................................................................................... 21 
Appendix ................................................................................................................................. 22 
 
 
 
 
 

Team #1924268 Page 1 of 20

I.Restatement of the Problem

1.1 Introduction

The concept of ecosystem services valuation (ESV) is attracting increased attention as a way to

communicate societal dependence on ecological life support systems

[1]

. Ecosystem services

are the conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems and the species that make

them up, sustain and fulfill human life. For example, turning waste into food, filtering water,

growing food, pollinating plants, turning carbon dioxide into oxygen and so on. Ecosystem

service valuation is being developed as a vehicle to integrate ecological understanding and

economic considerations to redress the traditional neglect of ecosystem services in policy

decisions

[2]

However, most land-use projects do not consider the impact and changes of ecosystem services,

such as polluted rivers, poor air quality, hazardous waste sites, poorly treated waste water,

climate changes, etc., which are directly affecting biodiversity and causing environmental

degradation.

Modern environmentalism which lies in the economic sphere has failed to address the

underlying causes of environmental degradation. To change the situation, one of the solutions is

to show that ecosystems have economic value, and all ecological services are economic

services

[3]

. Once ecosystem services are taken into account in the cost-benefit ratio of a project,

the true and comprehensive valuation of the project can be determined and evaluated.

1.2 The Problem

⚫ Create an ecological services valuation model to understand the true economic costs of

land use projects when ecosystem services are considered.

⚫ Use our model to perform a cost benefit analysis of land use development projects of

varying sizes, from small community-based projects to large national projects.

⚫ Evaluate the effectiveness of our model based on our analyses and model design.

⚫ Give the implications of our modeling on land use project planners and managers.

⚫ Consider the change of our model over time.

II.Analysis of the problem

⚫ Feature choosing

Costanza et al. subdivided ecosystem services into 17 types

[4]

. According to the Millennium

Ecosystem Assessment, the ecosystem services can be divided into 4 major categories: supply

service, regulation service, support service, and cultural service

[5]

. Supply service combines

with built, human, and social capital to produce food, timber, fiber, or other provisioning

benefits. Regulation service combines with the other three services to produce flood control,

storm protection, water regulation, human disease regulation, water purification, air quality

maintenance, pollination, pest control, and climate control. Supporting service describes the

Team #1924268 Page 3 of 20

III.Assumptions

Table.1.Assumptions

IV.Ecological services valuation model based on DMV and Emergy

evaluation

4.1 Model preparation

4.1.1 Analytic Hierarchy Process

Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a practical decision method with multiple plans or

objectives which was put forward by American operations research expert t. l. Saaty in the

1970s. It is a decision analysis method combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis.

It is often applied to unstructured complex decision-making problems with multiple objectives,

criteria, elements and levels, especially strategic decision-making problems.

Assumptions

Justifications

The data which was used in the

model are reliable.

The data are based on the authoritative references.

Ignore the influence of cultural and

educational value.

At present, there is no unified measurement

method to account this service, and it is hard to

gain data on information cycle provided by

ecosystems. Maybe it will be developed in the

further study.

The unidentified factors have little

effect on our model.

Based on a large number of references, the

influential factors contained in our model can be a

good summary of other influencing factors.

In the cases we studied, there will be

no policy change and catastrophe in

the future.

In order to assure the stability and accuracy of our

model, we ignore these unpredictable situations.

The features contained in our model

are mutually independent.

In order to ensure the accuracy and

comprehensiveness of the model, we did not

choose repeated features.

Ignore the influence of wind energy.

Because wind energy is available only when it is

generated by the wind, there is no impact on wind

energy in most projects.

The water quality in the original area

is good. Rivers flow slowly and are

within the limits of self-purification.

The situation needs to satisfy the Streeter-Phelps

Equation.

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