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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The 3rd Platform continues to alter the overall storage landscape. The secular shift to mobile, the
cloud, and big data analytics is benefiting the solid state drive (SSD) industry. IDC maintains that
SSDs are a key enabling technology for the 3rd Platform, as SSD storage devices make it possible for
quick and efficient access to data. As a result, momentum for broader adoption of SSDs continues to
take place across multiple segments in the compute market.
In 2015, SSD shipments are expected to increase 24% year over year to 110 million units, equivalent
to 24.8EB of capacity, generating an 11% increase in revenue year over year to $13.7 billion. Over the
forecast period, IDC maintains that a number of important trends will continue to drive worldwide SSD
adoption higher:
The price of SSDs and flash-enabled storage systems will continue to decline, thus expanding
the SSD accessible market.
The ecosystem in both client devices and the enterprise market segment is evolving and
adapting to SSD technology, thus making it possible to take full advantage of the inherent
benefits of flash technology and expand the use case for SSDs.
Improving SSD performance and endurance metrics to better align with various storage
applications or storage workloads are also facilitating SSD adoption.
For this market forecast update, the price-elastic nature of SSDs is underpinning IDC's updated
outlook. IDC expects more aggressive SSD price erosion than previously assumed over the forecast
period thanks to a supply/demand imbalance in the NAND industry that is affecting the price of NAND
flash, the fundamental storage media in an SSD. Technological advancements such as 3D NAND and
triple-level cell (TLC) or 3 bits per cell — as well as strong competitive pressures — will also drive SSD
prices lower (as measured in price per gigabyte [$/GB]). Over the forecast period, IDC now expects
SSD pricing to decline at a 2014–2019 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.7%.
In turn, lower SSD prices are expected to increase the demand for SSDs. For this forecast, both SSD
units and total capacity shipped (measured in bits shipped by the industry) are higher than IDC's prior
forecast. IDC's updated worldwide SSD unit shipment forecast results in a 2014–2019 CAGR of 18.6%,
with shipments reaching 209 million units in 2019. Total SSD capacity shipped worldwide will increase
at a 2014–2019 CAGR of 46.5%, reaching 112.6EB by 2019.
As a result, IDC expects worldwide SSD industry revenue will grow at a 2014–2019 CAGR of 10.3%,
reaching $20.2 billion by 2019. However, more aggressive SSD pricing than previously assumed
results in a lower revenue growth rate than in IDC's previous worldwide SSD forecast, even though
lower SSD pricing is spurring faster SSD adoption.
This IDC study presents an updated outlook at the solid state drive (SSD) market through 2019. The
SSD industry dynamics associated with 2015 and the end-device forecast changes are aggregated,
analyzed, and applied to IDC's long-term SSD forecast in terms of units and revenue (by form factor)
for each consumption category of SSDs (client, enterprise, and commercial).
"Demand for SSDs in both the client and enterprise market remains strong," says Jeff Janukowicz,
research vice president for Solid State Drives and Enabling Technologies. "Thanks to more affordable
SSD solutions, advancements in the technology, and an evolving ecosystem, SSD adoption is
accelerating and SSD capacity shipped is growing at a 2014–2019 CAGR of 46.5%."
