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D73156-Construct all-electric network.PDF
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D73156-Construct all-electric network.PDF
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Team Control Number
73156
Problem Chosen
D
2018
MCM/ICM Summary Sheet
Construct all-electric network
The transformation from gas vehicles to electric vehicles becomes a hot topic all overthe
world. In order to get the schedule of the location of charging stations and predict the process
of transformation tendency, we establish several models to solve the questions.
For question 1, we firstly establish a model based on queuing theory. Furthermore, we
construct a multi-objective programming model based on information of the current Tesla
charging network in the US. With the help of Matlab, we find that Tesla is on track to allow a
complete switch to all-electric in the US. We obtain that the number of charging stations needed
is about 1.7million when all gas vehicles transform to electric vehicles, and the distribution
proportions of charging stations in urban, suburban and rural areas are 67:23:10.
For question 2, we establish the site selection models of charging station for urban,
suburban and rural areas of South Korea, separately. Combining with the programming model
which we established in problem 1, we obtain the number, location and distribution of charging
stations in Korea. We get the key factors that affect our plan are the building cost of chargers
and the government investment. By considering six indexes, we establish a logistic model.
Using this model, we firstly give the timeline of the full evolution to electric vehicles. We find
that the key factor for this situation is policy orientation. Then we further predict the number
of the electric vehicles of urban and rural areas in South Korea separately. Through the logistic
model, we obtain that South Korea should give preference to build charging station in cities.
Similarly, we find that the two key factors which influent our model most are wealth
distribution and government investment. Additionally, we introduce a concept called lag index
to measure the relationship between the car and the charging station.
For question 3, we establish a classification system through Q-type clustering model.
According to different national conditions, we divide the countries into three categories.
Through some analysis of the Q-type clustering model, we find out that the key factors that
trigger the selection of different approaches to growing the network are policy orientation,
wealth distribution and government investment. According to these factors, a targeted electric
network development plan has been proposed.
For question 4, to study the influence of various new technologies, we set several
indicators to establish our models, such as GDP and OPH. By analyzing our evaluation model,
we find that these technologies impact the growth rate of electric vehicles, which contributes
to the growing popularity of electric vehicles. Besides, the population of electric vehicles will
be driven by these technologies.
For question 5, we prepare a one-page handout for the leaders identifying the key factors
which they should consider as they return to their home country to develop a national plan to
migrate personal transportation towards all-electric cars and set a gas vehicle-ban date for
different countries.
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Key words: site selection model, logistic model, Q-type clustering model, electric network
Team#73156 Page 1 of 27
Content
1 Introduction.................................................................................................................... 2
1.1 Background..........................................................................................................2
1.2. Restatement of the Problem................................................................................3
1.2 Literature Review................................................................................................ 3
1.3 Our Work.............................................................................................................4
2 Assumptions and Justifications...................................................................................... 4
3 Distribute the charging stations in the US...................................................................... 4
3.1 Concepts introduction..........................................................................................5
3.2 All-electric evaluation model.............................................................................. 6
3.2.1 The model construction............................................................................ 6
3.2.2 Model solution and analysis..................................................................... 7
3.3 Distribution optimization model..........................................................................8
3.3.1 The model construction............................................................................ 8
3.3.2 Model solution and analysis..................................................................... 9
4 Study on South Korea.....................................................................................................9
4.1 Urban charging station location model..............................................................10
4.2 Suburban charging station location model........................................................ 12
4.3 Rural charging station location model...............................................................12
4.4 Logistic model................................................................................................... 13
4.4.1 Index definition.......................................................................................13
4.4.2 The model construction.......................................................................... 13
4.4.3 Model solution and analysis................................................................... 14
4.5 Answers of the Questions.................................................................................. 14
5 Create a classification system.......................................................................................16
5.1 The model construction..................................................................................... 17
5.2 Model solution and analysis.............................................................................. 17
6 Comment on the effect of new technologies................................................................ 18
6.1 The model construction..................................................................................... 18
6.2 Model analysis...................................................................................................18
7 Sensitivity Analysis...................................................................................................... 19
8 Conclusions.................................................................................................................. 20
8.1 Strengths............................................................................................................ 20
8.2 Weaknesses........................................................................................................20
8.3 Model extension................................................................................................ 20
9 A Handout to the Leaders.............................................................................................20
10 Reference.................................................................................................................... 21
11 Appendix.................................................................................................................... 22
Team#73156 Page 2 of 27
1
Introduction
1.1
Background
Nowadays, fossil fuel and the environment protection have become the hottest issues
in the world [1]. The main transportations all over the world are based on fossil oil, which
has caused serious environmental pollutions. Since the resource of fossil fuels is limited
and it always leads to the pollution, the transition of it to more clean energy is inevitable.
In order to realize this aim, electric vehicles which are the representatives of new energy
vehicles, have been recognized as the main development direction of the transformation
in the automotive industry in the 21st century [2].
It is well established that electric vehicles are high efficiency, low noise and nearly
zero pollution [3]. The advantages of electric vehicles are obvious. Hence, they have been
widely used all over the world. To promote the large-scale development of electric
vehicles, it is necessary to improve the corresponding infrastructure. As an important part
of the construction of electric vehicle facilities, charging stations are crucial to the
development of the entire electric vehicle industry. Where and how many do we need to
construct the charging stations? Selecting the correct location and estimating the number
of charging stations are very important.
1.2.
Restatement of the Problem
When we transform the gasoline and fossil fuel cars to electric vehicles, we need to
consider the network of charging stations and the growth of them over time. In order to
make a development schedule of the charging stations for a country, we are required to
answer the following questions.
1. Build a model to judge whether or not Tesla can switch to all-electric all over US.
Distribute the charging stations in case of full electric.
2. Select a country to determine the number and location of charging stations. Make
a timeline for the full evolution and find out the key factors that matter your model most.
3. Consider whether the model is suitable for the countries with different geographies,
population density distributions, and wealth distributions situations, and discuss the
feasibility of creating a classification system.
4. Consider that how new technologies affect the analysis of the increasing use of
electric vehicles.
5. Write a one-page handout for the leaders to identify the key factors they should
consider and set a gas vehicle-ban date.
1.2
Literature Review
Under the pressure of energy conservation and low carbon, the research on the
electric vehicles and the construction of charging station network have made great
progress.In the planning of charging facilities, some researchers point out that the layout
of charging stations are affected by the number of electric vehicles [4]. The construction
of power stations needs to meet the requirements of traffic density. Only in this way can
they develop in harmony. Taking California for example, we know that there are one
million new energy vehicles in existence [5]. By combining the supply and demand of
Team#73156 Page 3 of 27
California electricity, they build linear and nonlinear models, aiming at saving energy and
reducing emissions. Wang [6] proposed a new method for the layout of charging station.
In [6], they considered several influential factors such as technical level, holding capacity
and charging behavior of electric vehicles. However, the proposed load-shedding space
segment prediction method does not take into the driving features, using mode and
charging mode into account. The weight of the method is subjective and the prediction
error is large.
For selecting the location of charging stations, Holzman [7] aimed at minimizing the
square distance of user-to-facility locations, and constructed the location selection model
based on network planning. Then he discussed and expanded the model with specific
conditions. Additionally, the authors [8] build the optimization model, whose algorithm
was based on game theory. Hakimi [9] conducted a systematic study of the selection of
facility location. He considers the location of one or more facilities within a network,
providing that the total distance or the maximum distance between the facility and the
point is minimized. The theory makes the selection of charging station furtherdeveloped
on the basis of the original theory.
However, the development of electric vehicles are still at the initial stage. The layout
planning theory of charging facility is also under exploration and there are still very little
studies about the network of charging stations. Although some achievements have been
made, we still have lots of the uncertainties to study. In this paper, we propose a brand-
new model to imply the location of charging stations. Furthermore, we extend our
models to suit different circumstances.
1.3
Our Work
Firstly, we establish a multi-objective programming model to calculate the number
of charging stations. Besides, we establish a site selection model to determine the
distribution in urban, suburban and rural areas. Then we choose six indexes which affect
the number of the electric vehicles. According these indexes, we establish a logistic model
to predict the number of the electric vehicles. We can find out the key factors through the
predicted data. Furthermore, we can analyze the relationship among the different key
factors. Next, we expand our model. We establish a classification system through Q-type
clustering model to analyze the electric network development plan for countries in
different categories. We also consider the effect of various new technologies, and analyze
the status of each technology and the trend of future development. Finally, we write a
handout for the leaders to offer them some effective advice on the development of electric
network.
2
Assumptions and Justifications
The charging station which has been built cannot be removed. Since the
construction of charging station costs a lot of manpower and financial resources, the
demolition of it will cause greater losses.
The candidate points of charging station are obtained through reasonable
analysis and rigorous demonstration. Because if the charging station is built in an
area with poor or unsafe conditions, it will lead to fewer cars to be charged.
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