全球能源系统脱碳的新视角（英）.pdf

A new perspective on

decarbonising the global

energy system

Matthew Ives, Luca Righetti, Johanna Schiele, Kris De Meyer,

Lucy Hubble-Rose, Fei Teng, Lucas Kruitwagen,

Leah Tillmann-Morris, Tianpeng Wang, Rupert Way &

Cameron Hepburn

April 2021

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Authors

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Matthew C. Ives | Institute for New Economic Thinking & Smith School for Enterprise

and the Environment, University of Oxford, UK

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Luca Righetti | Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, UK

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Johanna Schiele | Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, USA

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Kris De Meyer | Earth Sciences, University College London, UK

Lucy Hubble-Rose | Communicating Climate Science Policy Commission,

Lucas Kruitwagen | Smith School for Enterprise and the Environment,

University of Oxford, UK

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Leah Tillmann-Morris | Smith School for Enterprise and the Environment,

University of Oxford, UK

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Tianpeng Wang | Institute of Energy Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University,

Beijing, P. R. China

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Rupert Way | Institute for New Economic Thinking & Smith School for Enterprise and

We are very grateful to the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Oce for funding

this project under its prosperity programming and for the ongoing research support that

underpins this report from the Oxford Martin Institute for New Economic Thinking and

Baillie Giord.

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be found with wind, energy storage, and electrolysers (hydrogen-based energy). Such

declines are set to continue and will take several of these renewable technologies

well below the cost base for current fossil fuel power generation. Most major climate

mitigation models produced for the IPCC and the International Energy Agency have

continually underestimated such trends despite these trends being quite consistent and

predictable. By incorporating such trends into a simple, transparent energy system model

we produce new climate mitigation scenarios that provide a contrasting perspective

to those of the standard models. These new scenarios provide an opportunity to

reassess the common narrative that a Paris-compliant emissions pathway will be

expensive, will require reduced energy reliability or economic growth, and will need to

aordable energy.

This report should be referenced as:

Ives, M.C., Righetti, L., Schiele, J., De Meyer, K., Hubble-Rose, L., Teng, F., Kruitwagen,

L., Tillmann-Morris, L., Wang, T., Way, R. & Hepburn, C. 2021. A new perspective on

decarbonising the global energy system. Oxford: Smith School of Enterprise and the

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Contents

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