For office use only
T1
________________
T2
________________
T3
________________
T4
________________
Team Number
21185
Problem Chosen
B
For office use only
F1
________________
F2
________________
F3
________________
F4
________________
2013 Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM) Summary Sheet
Summary
There are mainly three water problems in China: too little water in northern and northwestern part;
too much floods in southern part; and too dirty water produced by industry and agricultural
pollutants.
In order to address problems above and provide a thirteen-year water strategy (2013-2025) for the
leadership of China, we conclude five sub-problems and its solution in our paper: 1)Prediction of
the supply and demand of water in a period of thirteen years based on historical data;2) Model
building of national water storage and movement strategy to solve China’s uneven distribution of
water in time and space; 3)Model designing of regional water de-salinization strategy to increase
the total amount of available water;4)Model building of water conservation strategy, including
regional water pollution treatment and national water-saving; 5)Long run cost-benefit analysis of
four water strategies above and the discussion of the optimal combination of water strategies.
In first model, we choose the most appropriate Fitting Function. Using Grey Predicted Model, we
can get the correlation degree between water consumption and population, industrial GDP and
agriculture output. Then we successfully finger out the water demand in 2025 is 6770 hundred million
m^3 by using GM prediction. In our second model, we use CV (coefficient of Variation) and water
supply pressure as the decision-making index and work out a water storage project list by using
Goal Programming. Based on cost and benefits analysis, we build Minimum Spanning Tree to
work out the optimal water transfer plan. That is, we should transfer water from Yangtze watershed
to Yellow watershed and Hai watershed. Besides, we devise a local water transfer strategy. In the
third model, we build a set of parameters to describe the degree of water purification demand of
each city and successfully get the water de-salinization plant building scheme. In the fifth model,
we do long run cost-benefit analysis of four water strategies above. We first analyze weights of
economic, physical, environmental implications by using AHP (analytic hierarchy process). Then
we use Neural Network Algorithm to classify the quality of each strategy and finally get a
reasonable strategy evaluation model.
In the whole modeling process, we give full consideration to validity, feasibility and cost-efficiency
of our model.
