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《 世界贸易报告》服务贸易的未来(英)-WTO--232页.pdf
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《 世界贸易报告》服务贸易的未来(英)-WTO--232页.pdf
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2019
WORLD TRADE
REPORT
The future of services trade
What is the World
Trade Report?
The World Trade Report is an
annual publication that aims to
deepen understanding about
trends in trade, trade policy
issues and the multilateral
trading system.
What is the 2019
Report about?
The 2019 World Trade Report
examines how trade in services
is likely to evolve in response
to some major trends, such as
demographic changes and the
impact of digital technologies.
Find out more
Website: www.wto.org
General enquiries:
enquiries@wto.org
Tel: +41 (0)22 739 51 11
Contents
Acknowledgements and Disclaimer 3
Foreword by the WTO Director-General 4
Key facts and findings 6
Executive summary 7
A. Introduction 12
1. Globalization of services 14
2. Digitalized services: the non-tradable becomes hyper-tradable 14
3. The evolution of trade: from agriculture to manufacturing to services 15
4. More complex services trade requires more coherent policies 17
5. Why it matters 17
6. Structure of the report 18
B. Services trade in numbers 20
1. Trends in trade in services 22
2. Global trade in services through all modes of supply is worth US$ 13.3 trillion 22
3. Who trades services? 31
4. What is the role of services in global value chains? 44
C. Why services trade matters 50
1. The gains from services trade 52
2. Services trade boosts firms’ competitiveness 65
3. How services trade affects employment and inclusiveness 69
4. Concluding observations 80
D. Services trade in the future 82
1. Trade costs 84
2. Major trends that will affect trade in services 100
3. Quantifying services trade in the future 122
4. Concluding observations 134
E. What role for international cooperation on services trade policy? 152
1. Introduction 154
2. Why governments cooperate on services trade policy 154
3. How countries collaborate in the services sphere 165
4. Prospects for future cooperation 184
5. Concluding observations 193
F. Conclusions 198
Opinion pieces
Alan Beattie, “The case of the missing services” 23
Sonja Grater, Ali Parry and Wilma Viviers, “MSMEs and services trade:
A pathway to inclusive growth in developing economies?” 42
Matteo Fiorini and Bernard Hoekman, “Services trade policy and the United Nations
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)” 66
Rupa Chanda, “Ensuring inclusive services trade: role of complementary domestic policies” 78
Richard Baldwin, “Digital technology and telemigration” 126
Natallie Rochester, “The potential of trade in services for developing countries” 166
Jane Drake-Brockman, “Why regulatory cooperation matters for business” 188
CONTENTS
1
WORLD TRADE REPORT 2019
2
Bibliography 200
Technical notes 213
Abbreviations and symbols 218
List of figures, tables and boxes 219
WTO members 225
Previous World Trade Reports 226
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
3
Disclaimer
The World Trade Report and its contents are the sole responsibility of the WTO Secretariat, except for
the opinion pieces, which are the sole responsibility of their authors. The Report does not reflect the
opinions or views of members of the WTO. The authors of the Report also wish to exonerate those who
have commented upon it from responsibility for any outstanding errors or omissions.
Acknowledgements
The World Trade Report 2019 was prepared under
the general responsibility of Xiaozhun Yi, WTO
Deputy Director-General, and Robert Koopman,
Director of the WTO Economic Research and
Statistics Division. The Report was coordinated by
Emmanuelle Ganne and Stela Rubínová (Economic
Research and Statistics Division) and by Antonia
Carzaniga (Trade in Services and Investment
Division). The lead authors of the Report are Barbara
d’Andrea, Andreas Maurer, Roberta Piermartini
and Robert Teh (Economic Research and Statistics
Division), and Antonia Carzaniga. Other authors are
Marc Auboin, Eddy Bekkers, John Hancock, Kathryn
Lundquist, José-Antonio Monteiro, Coleman Nee,
Victor Stolzenburg, Ankai Xu and Qing Ye (Economic
Research and Statistics Division); Pamela Apaza,
Markus Jelitto, Joscelyn Magdeleine, Juan Marchetti,
Martin Roy and Lee Tuthill (Trade in Services and
Investment Division); and Rainer Lanz (Development
Division).
Other written contributions were provided by Ege
Akbas, Christophe Degain, Chiara Del Giovane, Anesu
Gamanya, Emmanuelle Ganne and Stela Rubínová
(Economic Research and Statistics Division), and
Niccolò Consonni, Dale Honeck, Ester Rubio and Ruosi
Zhang (Trade in Services and Investment Division).
External contributions were received from Richard
Baldwin (Graduate Institute of International and
Development Studies, Geneva and Center for
Economic Policy Research, London), Alan Beattie
(Financial Times, London), Rupa Chanda (Indian
Institute of Management, Bangalore), Jane Drake-
Brockman (Institute for International Trade, Adelaide),
Matteo Fiorini (European University Institute,
Florence), Sonja Grater (North-West University,
South Africa), Bernard Hoekman (European University
Institute, Florence, and Center for Economic Policy
Research, London), Ali Parry (North-West University,
South Africa), Natallie Rochester (Mango Tales Ltd.,
Jamaica) and Wilma Viviers (North-West University,
South Africa). Research inputs were provided by Ali
Abdul Raheem, Laura Baiker, Adam Jakubik, Florian
Knauth, Antonella Liberatore, Osama Nawab and
Steen Wettstein.
Xiaolin Chai and Marie-Isabelle Pellan from the
Trade in Services and Investment Division and
Marc Bacchetta from the Economic Research and
Statistics Division provided useful comments on
drafts. David Tinline from the Office of the Director-
General provided valuable advice and guidance.
The following individuals from outside the WTO
Secretariat also provided useful comments on early
drafts of the Report: Rolf Adlung, Ali Alsamawi,
Andrea Ariu, Richard Baldwin, Sebastian Benz, Dan
Ciuriak, Jane Drake-Brockman, Matthias Helble,
Bernard Hoekman, Sébastien Miroudot, Hildegunn
Nordås, Jane Stacey and Sherry Stephenson.
The text production of the Report was managed by
Emmanuelle Ganne, Stela Rubínová, Anne Lescure
and Diana Dent of the Economic Research and
Statistics Division, and by Antonia Carzaniga of
the Trade in Services and Investment Division. The
production of the Report was managed by Anthony
Martin and Helen Swain of the Information and
External Relations Division. Helen Swain edited
the Report. Gratitude is also due to the translators
in the Languages, Documentation and Information
Management Division for the high quality of their
work.
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