瑞信-亚太地区-科技行业-亚洲科技会议：科技行业的驱动因素暂时掩盖了贸易战的风险-99-101页.pdf

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trade war risk for now

Figure 1: Most requested stocks performed well into ATC this year

Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research

■ CS Asian Tech Conference (ATC) takeaways. The Credit Suisse Asian

Technology Conference capped a 2-week period spanning Kyoto, Internet,

Korea, pre-trips, and the main ATC featuring 111 companies and 354

(5) memory supply/demand improving; (6) raw wafer pricing down mildly

but may tighten by 2H20; (7) SiP and 5G projects lifting the back-end, (8)

outsourcing from IDMs with 6” capacity, (10) TSMC tailwinds into 2020.

■ Some risks to monitor for a late year dip. Risk of a slowdown in late

2019 is still there before a rebound from 2Q20 including: (1) iPhone falling

short on limited spec changes and China smartphones on a 4G inventory

clean-up ahead of 5G, (2) US trade tariffs hitting China exports of tech

products in December, (3) inverted yield curve signaling a global

recession, and (4) inventory clean up with supply chain levels high and

Figure 3: This year's least requested more mixed

Figure 7: Non-tech tone more Neutral than last year

111 companies and 354

attended the 2019 ATC