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【202009】J.P. 摩根-全球-游戏行业-游戏行业更新:与媒体和互联网的触摸_29页.pdf
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【202009】J.P. 摩根-全球-游戏行业-游戏行业更新:与媒体和互联网的触摸_29页.pdf
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Gaming Update… with a touch of Media & Internet
Don Carducci
AC
(61-2) 9003-8379
donald.n.carducci@jpmchase.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited
See end pages for analyst certification and important disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as a single factor in making their
investment decision.
September 2020
Abhinay Jeggannagari
(61-2) 9003-6734
abhinay.jeggannagari@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited
1
Australian Casinos: SGR – Overweight, $3.25 PT & CWN – Neutral, $8.60 PT
SGR investment views:
• Delivered exceptional cost & capex management.
• 3 near-term catalysts leave us positive; we recently upgraded SGR to Overweight:
• De-leveraging plans to remove overhang and debt concerns.
• Sydney competitive environment (with Baranagroo) favoring SGR’s capacity & supply.
• Loyalty program coupled with a much more ‘fit’ operating model will see margin expansion.
• Domestic trends from 2H20 into 1H21 have shown positive signs.
CWN investment views:
• Positivity in Perth’s MGF update (+18% pcp through 16 Aug) for recovery sentiment.
• However, we anticipate a very subdued Melbourne re-opening to weigh on near-term earnings retrieval. Consensus divided
• CWN could enter trading in a “COVID-19 normal” setting in late CY20 or early CY21 if there are no new cases in VIC for 28 days.
Sector themes:
• The majority of SGR/CWN casino earnings are domestic (~78/88% 1H20) and with AUS border closures, we remain skeptical of a
meaningful return to the PCPCP (FY19).
• High costs for VIP have been removed, therefore margins should improve somewhat.
• Casinos will focus on engaging higher value customers due to restrictions. Spend per player will be higher but visitation will be
lower.
• Takeaways from US: Indiana, Ohio, Maryland & Mid-Atlantic, LV Strip, etc.
2
Australian Casinos: SGR – Overweight, $3.25 PT & CWN – Neutral, $8.60 PT
Battle of loyalty:
• SGR is implementing larger discounts & broader benefits than CWN.
• With otherwise marginal differences between Baranagroo/CWN & Pyrmont/SGR tables, SGR has made a few simple changes
to the loyalty program (launching 7 October).
• The ~5% increased discounts and changes across tiers could be the difference between an effective defense of customer
loyalty and losing share of market/mind after Barangaroo opens.
• If a gambler maintains status across both programs, (regardless of the fact that wallet-spend is now reallocated across both),
SGR may give away more benefits for less share of wallet.
• CWN must compete to attract existing NSW gamblers off SGR’s program; now made stickier with greater incentives and
benefits.
SGR Loyalty Changes
Source: Star Entertainment.
3
Australian Casinos: SGR – Overweight, $3.25 PT & CWN – Neutral, $8.60 PT
Recent observations at SGR Sydney:
MTGMs
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Parking
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Tables Open
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Tables Hand Minimums (A$)
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Changes at SGR:
Number of seats at table games have reduced from 8 to 3
Tables open with higher value hands ($40 and $50 vs $20 and $30 previously).
1,688
573
873
Not reported
- 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
Max
Min
Average
07-Sep
53
13
32
23
- 10 20 30 40 50 60
Max
Min
Average
07-Sep
11
3
7
3
- 2 4 6 8 10 12
Max
Min
Average
07-Sep
$71.9
$25.0
$45.5
$43.3
$- $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0 $60.0 $70.0 $80.0
Max
Min
Average
07-Sep
4
Australian Casinos: SGR – Overweight, $3.25 PT & CWN – Neutral, $8.60 PT
SGR Earnings
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: Queens Wharf to commence from
1HFY23.
CWN Earnings
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: Barangaroo Sydney opens in late
CY20.
3,583
3,230
3,483
3,139
2,259
1,615
3,148
3,595
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
FY16A FY17A FY18A FY19A FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
Revenue (LHS) EBITDA (Norm) (RHS)
2,431
2,337
2,695
2,501
1,973
1,501
2,196
2,803
320
370
420
470
520
570
620
670
720
1,200
1,450
1,700
1,950
2,200
2,450
2,700
2,950
FY16A FY17A FY18A FY19A FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
Revenue (LHS) EBITDA (Norm) (RHS)
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